2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Still fantasy

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/5rAOX7x.gif
12z GFS... Still fantasy

Similar shenanigans as 12Z and 6Z on the 18Z GFS as well. A likely ghost as the EPS has no support for this and the GFS loves ghosts. It strengthens from nothing to 942 mb in the E Caribbean.

I'm always highly suspicious of a ghost when the GFS, alone, develops something rapidly that has just come off of SA. We've seen that a number of times. And then also consider the ghost it had on many runs for next week and that has disappeared from recent runs.

[blp]

EPS with a weak signal but starting to show something with same timing and origin of the GEFS.

[Category5Kaiju]

EPS with a weak signal but starting to show something with same timing and origin of the GEFS.

https://i.ibb.co/2jr84JS/eps-lowlocs-watl-fh144-360.gif

It's something that Mark Sudduth pointed out in his recent video, but the MJO is expected to be passing through the Atlantic by then. That favorable pattern, while not very strong, could be theoretically enough to jumpstart something there.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't be quick to believe the extended GFS as far as an east Caribbean storm. It also has very high wind shear in the region.

[Iceresistance]

I've been hearing on WxTwitter that there is a GFSv16.3, is that true?

[blp]

I don't think the GFS system is a ghost anymore. The 12z CMC now clearly picking up on it just further west and the Icon at the 500mb level starting to show it. This one could be dangerous.

EDIT: 12z GFS completely different upper level setup. Much more ridging now. This run is going further west.

[blp]

12z GEFS coming in much weaker and further west in line with CMC. I think the GFS is going overboard on intensification. We have seen several systems struggle this year including Ian developing in the Eastern Carribean so close to SA. This one may have a chance in the central or western Carribean.

[gatorcane]

I agree looking less like a phantom. The CMC op is showing development while the Euro ensembles are starting to come alive as well though more in the Western Caribbean.

00Z EPS:

[jconsor]

I've been hearing on WxTwitter that there is a GFSv16.3, is that true?

Yes, here are the links (I believe you need to be a Weathermodels subscriber):

GFS 16.3 (experimental, newer): https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/gf ... _v16_3.php
GFS 16.2 (operational): https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/gfs/gfs.php

The experimental GFS 16.3 has generally been consistent past few runs on a tropical cyclone forming around Oct 30-31 (next weekend) in the southeast Caribbean and then tracking W/WNW at low latitude into the SW Caribbean. It delays formation by around a day vs. op GFS and has TC formation further west (closer to Bonaire and Curacao vs. Grenada and Isla Margatia), which is a key factor in favoring a more westward track than the op GFS. It also has a slightly stronger ridge over the W. Atlantic than the operational GFS early next week.

Parallel GFS (6Z Oct 23 run - valid 9 days)


Operational GFS ((6Z Oct 23 run - valid 9 days):

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is through hour 252 with a 1002 mb low the weakest it has been in the Caribbean with this system since way back with the 0Z 10/21 run. It had had in nearly all of its runs since then (nine runs) hurricanes at that forecast time (as strong as 938 mb!). Even though I've been harping on the idea of a good chance for one more TC this season with significant land impacts based on the last nine La Niña seasons and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 having had one form either in late Oct or Nov, this GFS E Caribbean TCG has continued to look ghosty to me based on a general lack of support by other models in the E Caribbean, the GFS seeming to involve something coming off of SA in this genesis (which the GFS suite has been wrong on a good number of times this season), and the rarity of TCG in the e Caribbean vs C or W Caribbean. I'm still on the alert for one more potentially impactful system this season but don't think this E Caribbean GFS TC is the one as it appears bogus to me.

OTOH, a decent % of 0Z EPS members is hinting at TCG in the much more favored per climo W Caribbean near 10/31 to very early Nov as Gator mentioned. That is a much more believable possibility to me.

Edit: Despite the weaker start, the 12Z GFS run later goes ape shoot once again with this with a 952 mb H in the NE Caribbean on Nov 5th. I'm not believing it. It becomes a H on 11/4 vs 11/1 on the prior run. Yesterday's 18Z had a H by 11/2.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12Z GFS is through hour 252 with a 1002 mb low the weakest it has been in the Caribbean with this system since way back with the 0Z 10/21 run. It had had in nearly all of its runs since then (nine runs) hurricanes at that forecast time (as strong as 938 mb!). Even though I've been harping on the idea of a good chance for one more TC this season with significant land impacts based on the last nine La Niña seasons and 2/3 of La Niña seasons having had one form either in late Oct or Nov, this GFS E Caribbean TCG has continued to look ghosty to me based on a general lack of support by other models in the E Caribbean, the GFS seeming to involve something coming off of SA in this genesis (which the GFS suite has been wrong on a good number of times this season), and the rarity of TCG in the e Caribbean vs C or W Caribbean. I'm still on the alert for one more potentially impactful system this season but don't think this E Caribbean GFS TC is the one as it appears bogus to me.

OTOH, a decent % of 0Z EPS members is hinting at TCG in the much more favored per climo W Caribbean near 10/31 to very early Nov as Gator mentioned. That is a much more believable possibility to me.

Edit: Despite the weaker start, the 12Z GFS run later goes ape shoot once again with this with a 952 mb H in the NE Caribbean on Nov 5th. I'm not believing it. It becomes a H on 11/4 vs 11/1 on the prior run.

Yeah, a storm like Omar and Lenny is not something I'm going on bet on happening. Not that it cannot, but a Cat 4 storm that takes an eastward path through the Caribbean isn't exactly common

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is through hour 252 with a 1002 mb low the weakest it has been in the Caribbean with this system since way back with the 0Z 10/21 run. It had had in nearly all of its runs since then (nine runs) hurricanes at that forecast time (as strong as 938 mb!). Even though I've been harping on the idea of a good chance for one more TC this season with significant land impacts based on the last nine La Niña seasons and 2/3 of La Niña seasons having had one form either in late Oct or Nov, this GFS E Caribbean TCG has continued to look ghosty to me based on a general lack of support by other models in the E Caribbean, the GFS seeming to involve something coming off of SA in this genesis (which the GFS suite has been wrong on a good number of times this season), and the rarity of TCG in the e Caribbean vs C or W Caribbean. I'm still on the alert for one more potentially impactful system this season but don't think this E Caribbean GFS TC is the one as it appears bogus to me.

OTOH, a decent % of 0Z EPS members is hinting at TCG in the much more favored per climo W Caribbean near 10/31 to very early Nov as Gator mentioned. That is a much more believable possibility to me.

Edit: Despite the weaker start, the 12Z GFS run later goes ape shoot once again with this with a 952 mb H in the NE Caribbean on Nov 5th. I'm not believing it. It becomes a H on 11/4 vs 11/1 on the prior run.

Yeah, a storm like Omar and Lenny is not something I'm going on bet on happening. Not that it cannot, but a Cat 4 storm that takes an eastward path through the Caribbean isn't exactly common

Indeed. And even Lenny formed in the climo more favored W Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro as well as the 12Z EPS, similarly to the 0Z that gator showed, are hinting at the possibility of TCG in the C or W Caribbean ~10/31-11/2 with ~25% of EPS members somewhat active fwiw. The Euro has light shear in the SW Caribbean then along with an upper high forming to the N in addition to a strengthening surface high to the NE increasing low level convergence. These all are suggestive of more favorable conditions for TCG in the W Caribbean in ~8-10 days.

Climo:
Oct 21-31:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_21_31.png

Nov 1-10:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/nov_1_10.png

[aspen]

I’ve been watching that ECar system on the GFS for days. First it looked like a possible convective feedback phantom, but then the timeframe of 10/30-11/1 remained constant, and now the CMC and ICON show it too. The GFS and CMC are also showing a possible system north of the Greater Antilles late this week.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS is even weaker than the 12Z at hour 246, making it the weakest by a good margin since the 0Z 10/21 run. But of course, it will likely get it a lot stronger from this point.

[MetroMike]

The 18Z GFS is showing wildly different solutions and directions in the longer term. This run has it going West at least, unlike wrong way Lenny tracks. Will see if it reverses course in the next run.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS is showing wildly different solutions and directions in the longer term. This run has it going West at least, unlike wrong way Lenny tracks. Will see if it reverses course in the next run.

I still think the GFS is out to lunch with its climo unflavored E Caribbean geneses. The two recent runs being the weakest through late next week in the E Car are imho hinting to us that that is the case and that it will quite possibly stop showing E Car geneses within a few runs. OTOH, the 18Z GEFS is about as active with geneses in early November in the W Car as has been the case with any recent run. This is similar to the increased activity there on the two most recent EPS runs though the GEFS is quite a bit more active. Imho, it is the C or W Caribbean where we should be wary about a possible TCG next week rather than the E Car that the GFS has been insisting on.

[gatorcane]

Long-range GFS has a cluster in the Western Caribbean now which looks to be a shift more towards the GEPS and EPS:

[dexterlabio]

I still think the GFS is out to lunch with its climo unflavored E Caribbean geneses. The two recent runs being the weakest through late next week in the E Car are imho hinting to us that that is the case and that it will quite possibly stop showing E Car geneses within a few runs. OTOH, the 18Z GEFS is about as active with geneses in early November in the W Car as has been the case with any recent run. This is similar to the increased activity there on the two most recent EPS runs though the GEFS is quite a bit more active. Imho, it is the C or W Caribbean where we should be wary about a possible TCG next week rather than the E Car that the GFS has been insisting on.

Do you think this is one of those moments of the GFS north/east "bias"?