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Teban54 wrote:
To my eyes, it looks like 12z GFS crashes 91L into CA without development, then develops something off South America into this. The vorticity was just behind 91L in the ECar.
chris_fit wrote:12Z EPS slight tick up in activity but nothing that really raises an eyebrow yet...
https://i.imgur.com/fyBOE6r.png
lando wrote:
This is not 91L but a wave after it or a CAG from South America
ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize
REDHurricane wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize
Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying
REDHurricane wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize
Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying
cheezyWXguy wrote:REDHurricane wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:GFS back on board with development, has a major heading towards Belize
Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying
You’re right, it’s not 91L that the gfs spins up into a major, but that area doesn’t originate from the cag. Watch the 850mb vorticity and you’ll see that some trailing vorticity splits off after it passes the lesser Antilles. GEFS shows something similar, with members starting to pop up in the east-central Caribbean. Icon shows a hint of this too. There could be something to this, but we need more continuity.
Another note, just because the gfs has a notorious cag bias doesn’t mean it will always be wrong when it shows it. Climatologically, we are getting to the time of year where a cag scenario is actually plausible. Again, not the scenario the gfs is showing at the moment, but even if it were a broken clock is still right twice a day.
skyline385 wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:REDHurricane wrote:
Nah, if you look closely you'll see that the GFS randomly spins up another separate area of vorticity after 91L runs into Nicaragua starting at ~168 hours out -- this CAG convection bias has been the GFS' favorite phantom storm generator all season and tells me that this run has nearly zero chance of verifying
You’re right, it’s not 91L that the gfs spins up into a major, but that area doesn’t originate from the cag. Watch the 850mb vorticity and you’ll see that some trailing vorticity splits off after it passes the lesser Antilles. GEFS shows something similar, with members starting to pop up in the east-central Caribbean. Icon shows a hint of this too. There could be something to this, but we need more continuity.
Another note, just because the gfs has a notorious cag bias doesn’t mean it will always be wrong when it shows it. Climatologically, we are getting to the time of year where a cag scenario is actually plausible. Again, not the scenario the gfs is showing at the moment, but even if it were a broken clock is still right twice a day.
ICON's genesis is from the actual 91L, GFS builds up spurious vorticity from SA and builds the second system. The 850mb vorticity plot also looks like a classic GFS certified solution with two systems extremely close to each other.
https://i.imgur.com/0FQoqT0.png
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1577061136708403200?s=20&t=bhoXSc2KPjnUrHLXCuJjhw
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