Teban54 wrote:Less activity than I expected here given it's rarity. Guess people are burnt out after Ian?
Operational models keep it weak, but there are many ensemble members showing strong hurricanes. As for track, there's a general agreement of moving NW/NNW, then turned W due to a ridge, and finally recurving once it reaches central or even western subtropical Atlantic. If it survives when turning W, ensembles suggest it will have a good chance of intensifying.
I guess the lack of super strong operational model runs is part of the reason this isn’t getting tons of attention. Also burnout after a devastating 70+ ACE September following a ridiculously quiet first half of the season.
If this was mid August or early September, it would probably get more hype because the environment would be more favorable for a northern MDR/subtropic long-tracker. As is, it’s still possible to get a nice high-ACE fish out of this, but it’s not super likely right now.