Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands (Is invest 92L)
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Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands (Is invest 92L)
https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1575482601271599104
Julia could be our next major. Very weird it’s happening this late given both GFS and EURO have shown development of this wave, with both making it a hurricane. Probably 0/20 at 2pm given the uptick.
Julia could be our next major. Very weird it’s happening this late given both GFS and EURO have shown development of this wave, with both making it a hurricane. Probably 0/20 at 2pm given the uptick.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
GFS Ensemble Members 9/29 12Z Forecast for the next seven days:
WNW to NW motion
WNW to NW motion
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
Abdullah wrote:GFS Ensemble Members 9/29 12Z Forecast for the next seven days:
https://i.imgur.com/1fspSJ3.gif
WNW to NW motion
I am watching those ahead.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system
through early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward
into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system
through early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward
into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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- galaxy401
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
Usually at this point, the door closes for the Cape Verde region. But with how backloaded this season is, I figure that region will still be active.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
Teban54 wrote:That's a pretty weird track...
https://i.postimg.cc/m2p5mVB7/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh3-240.gif
Kind of like what Irma did....except in October
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
Typical model biases are in full effect here. The GFS has this AOI recurve very early and impact the Cape Verde islands, while the CMC and Euro get it a lot further west before recurving.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
aspen wrote:Typical model biases are in full effect here. The GFS has this AOI recurve very early and impact the Cape Verde islands, while the CMC and Euro get it a lot further west before recurving.
Glad we're finally back to the simple times when Euro is to the west of GFS!
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgrade Hurricane Ian, located offshore of the northeast Florida
coast.
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgrade Hurricane Ian, located offshore of the northeast Florida
coast.
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
thankfully this has fish written all over it....
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgrade Hurricane Ian, located offshore of the northeast Florida
coast.
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for gradual development and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
Well that is escalating quickly. Maybe my number of 6 in September will be right after all.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
We've got an Orange Julia Julius out there.
(Who remembers that drink? )
(Who remembers that drink? )
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
[imgur]w[/imgur]
Omg i loved those lolol now i want one
AnnularCane wrote:We've got an OrangeJuliaJulius out there.
(Who remembers that drink? )
Omg i loved those lolol now i want one
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"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"
- weeniepatrol
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms off the west coast of
Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms off the west coast of
Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands
8 AM:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the
system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the
system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands
Less activity than I expected here given it's rarity. Guess people are burnt out after Ian?
Operational models keep it weak, but there are many ensemble members showing strong hurricanes. As for track, there's a general agreement of moving NW/NNW, then turned W due to a ridge, and finally recurving once it reaches central or even western subtropical Atlantic. If it survives when turning W, ensembles suggest it will have a good chance of intensifying.
Operational models keep it weak, but there are many ensemble members showing strong hurricanes. As for track, there's a general agreement of moving NW/NNW, then turned W due to a ridge, and finally recurving once it reaches central or even western subtropical Atlantic. If it survives when turning W, ensembles suggest it will have a good chance of intensifying.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ian, located inland over the Carolinas.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the early part of
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ian, located inland over the Carolinas.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the early part of
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands
cycloneye wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Ian, located inland over the Carolinas.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the early part of
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Long range Code Red, it would be wild to have a October MDR system!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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