ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLLurker32]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

I am so incredibly sorry to hear of your loss. There really aren’t words. Just thinking of you and your family.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Dang man, Florida did more to expand Ian’s wind field than Cuba and its subsequent EWRC. TS Winds extend up to 415 miles from the eye, per latest NHC update.

[Sciencerocks]

[hurricaneCW]

I would be surprised if it doesn't take a more eastern track all the way til landfall given its been doing that since before Florida.

The same mechanisms that allowed it to turn towards SW Florida will be the ones to keep it on the eastern side. I think NE SC and NC should be on guard.

Surge favors NE SC in particular

[FLLurker32]

Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol

Prior to the last maybe 10 yrs or so, the model data wasn’t widely shared. Not sure how keeping professional tools with the professionals = censorship. Most professions have tools they don’t share with the general public.

Might be out of my element here, but as a professional biologist and two years into a pandemic, I personally would never trust the government “professionals” to manage access to data/modeling. We knew in January 2020 that we were going to have big big problems and look what happened. We knew their testing/sampling methods were not going to work. An academic lab in the PNW that had population samples and an assay working and so *knew* it was already widely circulating. They alerted the FDA, and instead of listening they brought the hammer down on the lab. This was one month before bodies started piling up in refrigerated trucks in my neighborhood and people died in their apartments waiting for help.

Open source data and science for all. I am not a meteorologist but gave my brother a heads up (9/21 I told him to prepare) thanks to you all here. He’s never been through a hurricane until this one. He knows I’m a weather nerd and he spent the weekend prepping his house for flooding and he’s under a flash flood emergency now. He sent me video of his new French drain gushing water out to the street that would have been in his living room. The issue isn’t data access it’s science communication.

I’m a data analyst and re-engineer by trade. I’m in no way advocating for government control of data. There is, however, data that I use for assessments that folks who aren’t committed to learning the tools and all of the variables involved just simply wouldn’t understand. The unfortunate thing is that they themselves often do not realize they don’t understand, which causes them to ignore the professionals who do. On the topic of how sociology mixes with science - There has to be a more effective way to drown out that “noise” so the right people are heard. Lives depend on it.

[Old-TimeCane]

Where did everyone go? This thing isn’t done yet…

I’m obviously interested in the next landfall. I believe there’s some very wild meteorological stuff going on as Ian is running into a cold front? The TV guys are saying it’s disorganized and losing tropical characteristics. Ian also seems to be still hugging the right side of NHC forecast, per my very uneducated assessment.

Someone help me out here. Topsail Island is a very vulnerable patch of sand…

I'm right there with you down in the Myrtle Beach area.

A lot of the people on here live in Florida, and are unfortunately having to turn their attention to recovery now. So they had to "go".

I agree that it seems to be hugging the right of the forecast. I'm planning on a direct hit regardless of the cone at this point.

[cheezyWXguy]

Where did everyone go? This thing isn’t done yet…

I’m obviously interested in the next landfall. I believe there’s some very wild meteorological stuff going on as Ian is running into a cold front? The TV guys are saying it’s disorganized and losing tropical characteristics. Ian also seems to be still hugging the right side of NHC forecast, per my very uneducated assessment.

Someone help me out here. Topsail Island is a very vulnerable patch of sand…

This board has a large portion of its member base in Florida, so you can probably imagine why they aren’t on here right now.

As for others, storm fatigue. Days worth of posting, trying to stay caught up on reading posts, looking at models, looking at satellite, looking at radar, recon, advisories, etc. Staying up late to see new info, waking up early to do the same. It can be exhilarating, but it’s exhausting. On top of that, concern is always growing for what we know is coming. And then it happens, and seeing the destruction is like a punch to the gut for many. It pales in comparison to what those actually going through the storm experience, but it still sucks.

[tropicwatch]

AF recon on the way.

[FLLurker32]

Dang man, Florida did more to expand Ian’s wind field than Cuba and its subsequent EWRC. TS Winds extend up to 415 miles from the eye, per latest NHC update.

I’m very concerned for the southern Appalachia region. A lot of creeks run through those mountains. They easily flood and cause landslides. I haven’t looked at the estimates yet today to see how much rain they’re looking at getting.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Where did everyone go? This thing isn’t done yet…

I’m obviously interested in the next landfall. I believe there’s some very wild meteorological stuff going on as Ian is running into a cold front? The TV guys are saying it’s disorganized and losing tropical characteristics. Ian also seems to be still hugging the right side of NHC forecast, per my very uneducated assessment.

Someone help me out here. Topsail Island is a very vulnerable patch of sand…

I'm right there with you down in the Myrtle Beach area.

A lot of the people on here live in Florida, and are unfortunately having to turn their attention to recovery now. So they had to "go".

I agree that it seems to be hugging the right of the forecast. I'm planning on a direct hit regardless of the cone at this point.

I'm in Southport, and have been feeling that this thing is going in just south of Myrtle, or into Myrtle most of the day. The 5pm NHC update extended the hurricane warning up to Brunswick County in NC.

[orion]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

Sanibel, I am so sorry for your loss. While we don't know each other personally, I have followed your posts since we both joined here some 18 years ago... and many here are like family. Wishing you and your family comfort in your loss.

[Steve]

Where did everyone go? This thing isn’t done yet…

I’m obviously interested in the next landfall. I believe there’s some very wild meteorological stuff going on as Ian is running into a cold front? The TV guys are saying it’s disorganized and losing tropical characteristics. Ian also seems to be still hugging the right side of NHC forecast, per my very uneducated assessment.

Someone help me out here. Topsail Island is a very vulnerable patch of sand…

I’ve been in lurker/observation mode most of the storm because I didn’t have anything to add and still don’t except wishes that it doesn’t affect you guys too severely. I have a friend 6 blocks off the ocean in a mobile home in Surfside Beach who I hope will heed whatever warnings are issued for his area.

[FLLurker32]

I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.

I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.

Restricting access to data is NEVER the answer in my opinion. If you want to look at the model data you have to know how to use it, but it's your choice, not somebody else.

I see people coming into the model threads all the time that think they can do a better job than the NHC. That's just the way it is. If one already has an attitude that they can do better than the pros then so be it. In this case some folks saw the trend and got a head start before the NHC, but they still had time AND most importantly that is not always the way it works. The error rate is in both directions, remember Irma trending left?

It was 2am, I was seeing all the videos of people floating in water calling for help. I don’t advocate for govt control. In fact, I always vote against it. I myself am a data analyst and re-engineer. For me, the more data the better. Whatever the ultimate right solution is here, the point I’m trying to make is that there is a very clear gap. There’s more info available than ever, but it hasn’t improved the outcome as much as it should have. Hundreds are gone. We need sociologists to perform more studies so we can more effectively get people to understand. Especially in coastal and other flood proned areas. I’ll leave the topic here. It doesn’t feel right to say anymore right now while folks like Sanibel and so many others are dealing with so much loss.

[GCANE]

Back to Cat 1

[sbcc]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

Sanibel, I lost my mom a short time ago as well. Deepest sympathy and condolences from, as Evenstar put it, part of your annual extended "family".

[GCANE]

This puppy is a CAPE junkie.
3500 in the Bahamas main lining straight into the core.

[FLLurker32]

Thank you. I vividly recall obsessing over models for Katrina (2005), and have a much more vague recollection of something like spaghetti (but with few strands compared to today) possibly being on TV for Georges (1998).

The SFWMD's plot design certainly resembles something from the early-to-mid 1990s, though it appears they were using the basic style for rendering NHC text output before they began plotting model outputs on it. The earliest *model* plot I can find is 2002, with NHC plots going back to circa 1998.

It's possible these were distributed via other electronic means prior to that . . . e.g. a listserv . . . but I probably just lost half the audience or more by referring to things being distributed by "electronic" techniques other than the web.

https://web.archive.org/web/20021225164 ... plots.html

My comment said that the models were not broadly shared, and they weren’t. You had to seek them out and if you did so it was typically because you knew something about them. Today, they’re too broadly shared and available to the masses that do not know and do not care to know what they mean and are intended for. This is just one of the many areas of science currently impacted by the rise of social media. I think many Mets have taken the approach of trying to teach the masses to offset the effects of it, but it doesn’t seem to be working.

Information suppression is never a good thing.

I’m all ears on alternatives. Mass information campaigns? Modification in alerting standards? Something needs to happen. We can’t just accept status quo without looking to improve.

[Grumpy]

I wanted to say thank you again, to all the contributors on here that for years have done their absolute best to inform us and keep us safe. Our house and property took a beating yesterday, but we're alive and safe. All of the information, links to other information and updates made that wild ride a little more bearable. So, thank you! Greatly appreciated.

[GCANE]

If this fires off a couple good towers, could wipe out the PV streamer over its SE flank.
Could see a good ramp up if that happens,

[AnnularCane]

I am so sorry for your loss, Sanibel. It's tough losing your own mother.