Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR? (It was)
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Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR? (It was)
The fact that we're making such a poll for the 4th time in 5 years (after Michael, Laura and Ida) is unbelievable, yet here we are.
Mods, can you make this a poll? Options are just Yes and No.
Mods, can you make this a poll? Options are just Yes and No.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
The case for Ian is complicated. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak flight level wind of 160 knots in the western semicircle, with a peak SFMR wind of 137 knots. At 700 mb, the 160 knot flight level winds would reduce down to 144 knots, which would definitely support Category 5 intensity. However, the NOAA aircraft was flying a bit lower, near 750 mb, so the FL-to-surface reduction factor is likely a bit different in this case. NHC did note in their 11am EDT discussion that Ian was likely extremely close to Category 5.
I'd lean towards no upgrade, but Ian's case is certainly stronger than Laura, Eta or Ida.
I'd lean towards no upgrade, but Ian's case is certainly stronger than Laura, Eta or Ida.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Made a poll about this question that will be open for voting until October 8th at 5:50 PM EDT.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
I would say yes, but certainly not to the point of landfall. It doesn't seem unreasonable that Ian briefly peaked between 160-165 mph earlier this morning at the end of the rapid intensification
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
I’m leaning towards no upgrade even though I think Ian was briefly a 5 this morning, because the NHC has been very hesitant to call anything a Cat 5 since Iota’s TCR. They don’t extrapolate intensification trends that much (lowering Eta and Sam’s peak pressures by 1-2mb despite evidence they probably dropped further) nor put much weight into a handful of borderline Cat 4/5 SFMR readings like when they downgraded Iota. The latter is probably due to Matthew, which is just begging to be downgraded to 130-135 kt any day now. However, unlike every other storm I mentioned, Ian has plenty of radar data for re-analysis, and it could be enough for an upgrade. Still not counting on it.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
A note on SFMR:
It has been noted in recent years that, at least until 2021, SFMR has a high bias in intense hurricanes (>120 kt). The most recent mention I could find was during a March 2022 workshop by James Franklin:
This was also the main reason for Iota's downgrade.
However, the same March 2022 workshop did mention a set of recommended wind speed adjustments on Slide 22 (which look like they could be from this year), with a note that "Recommended adjustments for 2022 likely to be close to what’s shown here".
I am not sure if these adjustments were put in place for the 2022 season. I remember someone mentioned it early this year, but I can't find it. If these adjustments were already in place, the 138 kt SFMR for Ian would hold a lot more value.
It has been noted in recent years that, at least until 2021, SFMR has a high bias in intense hurricanes (>120 kt). The most recent mention I could find was during a March 2022 workshop by James Franklin:
Ground truth (dropsondes) to calibrate the SFMR are limited in high winds. As the intercomparison dataset grows, the calibration changes. Frequent changes to the operational calibration (emissivity curve) have been frustrating for forecasters, and current operational calibration at very high wind speeds (mainly >120 kt) appears to be in error.
This was also the main reason for Iota's downgrade.
However, the same March 2022 workshop did mention a set of recommended wind speed adjustments on Slide 22 (which look like they could be from this year), with a note that "Recommended adjustments for 2022 likely to be close to what’s shown here".
I am not sure if these adjustments were put in place for the 2022 season. I remember someone mentioned it early this year, but I can't find it. If these adjustments were already in place, the 138 kt SFMR for Ian would hold a lot more value.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Could be the strongest case yet since Michael in 2018
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
I think it's got a decent case but I don't think they'll upgrade it. Pretty much as borderline as you can get
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Yes....If the flight level and smrf supported it why not?
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- Old-TimeCane
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
I voted yes.
This subject is going to give everyone plenty to talk about for 4 months during the off-season.
This subject is going to give everyone plenty to talk about for 4 months during the off-season.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Very likely it will be. They used radar and satellite data to upgrade Michael alongside its recon data, and this coupled with the FL and SFMR data (160 kt @ 750 mb is a 0.87 reduction yields 139.2 kt blended with the 138 kt SFMR gives 138.6 kt, firmly in C5 territory) plus NHC’s wording strongly suggesting Ian was probably already a C5 would imply a post-season upgrade.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Leaning yes based on the 160 kt FL winds which translate to about 140 kt, but that would be the element that would make or break it. Dvorak I believe was also T7.0 at that time. The SFMR I would ignore due to shoaling and the high bias.
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- toad strangler
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Since this was a landfall I’m certain that detailed damage assessment will be the trump card. Early pics and video of all around the landfall area are extremely provocative. Not just with buildings but with other key infrastructure. So leaning yes a Cat 5.
A wild card here are buildings post Florida Building Code fairing much better than older buildings. We saw this in Mexico Beach with Michael. This will all be taken into account and why I’m positive that a thorough examination of all infrastructure will be the deciding factors.
A wild card here are buildings post Florida Building Code fairing much better than older buildings. We saw this in Mexico Beach with Michael. This will all be taken into account and why I’m positive that a thorough examination of all infrastructure will be the deciding factors.
Last edited by toad strangler on Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
toad strangler wrote:Since this was a landfall I’m certain that detailed damage assessment will be the trump card. Early pics and video of all around the landfall area are extremely provocative. I’m leaning yes a Cat 5
Radar velocities was also insane at over 200 mph 9,000 feet up!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Iceresistance wrote:toad strangler wrote:Since this was a landfall I’m certain that detailed damage assessment will be the trump card. Early pics and video of all around the landfall area are extremely provocative. I’m leaning yes a Cat 5
Radar velocities was also insane at over 200 mph 9,000 feet up!
This is a part of the reason why I said yes as well. If this were the only piece, I would say no, but because we had recon I believe it tips the balance toward yes. Trough interaction could have been used to excuse the high readings, but that 160kt FL wind gave us a benchmark for how radar was translating to measured winds. At that time the highest readings I saw were between 180 and 190mph. I believe the FL wind alone ought to put it at least right on the cusp, but the fact that velocities continued to increase further between recon flights, and started decreasing before the next recon arrived, makes me think it achieved cat5 until it began to feel the effects of land in the final hour or so before landfall
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
cheezyWXguy wrote:Iceresistance wrote:toad strangler wrote:Since this was a landfall I’m certain that detailed damage assessment will be the trump card. Early pics and video of all around the landfall area are extremely provocative. I’m leaning yes a Cat 5
Radar velocities was also insane at over 200 mph 9,000 feet up!
This is a part of the reason why I said yes as well. If this were the only piece, I would say no, but because we had recon I believe it tips the balance toward yes. Trough interaction could have been used to excuse the high readings, but that 160kt FL wind gave us a benchmark for how radar was translating to measured winds. At that time the highest readings I saw were between 180 and 190mph. I believe the FL wind alone ought to put it at least right on the cusp, but the fact that velocities continued to increase further between recon flights, and started decreasing before the next recon arrived, makes me think it achieved cat5 until it began to feel the effects of land in the final hour or so before landfall
IIRC, Zeta's upgrade using radar velocities was primarily due to the fact that recon didn't sample the strongest quadrant. While that's not the case for Ian, it does show NHC is willing to use radar velocities as supporting evidence (but likely not at face value), so I believe the part I bolded here will be a consideration in Ian's post-season analysis as well.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
For those of you who think Ian will be upgraded to a cat 5; I have a new question to ask. If that indeed is the case, then what do you think the minimum pressure would be?
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Category5Kaiju wrote:For those of you who think Ian will be upgraded to a cat 5; I have a new question to ask. If that indeed is the case, then what do you think the minimum pressure would be?
935mb. It’ll be really odd having a low-end Cat 4 with a lower pressure than a Cat 5 if Ian gets upgraded.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
Michael got upgraded because subjective analysis of radar velocities using GBVTD technique yielded 145kt, SFMR was at 152kt (which NHC explicitly said can be questionable), and a pressure of 919mb yielded 140kt using KZC.
Two of the three elements is missing is Ian's case, including SMFR being lower at 137kt, and pressure significantly higher at ~935mb. The key would be radar velocities, but mesovortices were very active in Ian's eyewall, so a single frame cannot be used to estimate the intensity (NHC usually did a 4-bin average). My personal take is that 135kt is a good compromise / blend of all the available data, so I would lean towards no upgrade.
Two of the three elements is missing is Ian's case, including SMFR being lower at 137kt, and pressure significantly higher at ~935mb. The key would be radar velocities, but mesovortices were very active in Ian's eyewall, so a single frame cannot be used to estimate the intensity (NHC usually did a 4-bin average). My personal take is that 135kt is a good compromise / blend of all the available data, so I would lean towards no upgrade.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Will Ian be upgraded to Category 5 in TCR?
NotoSans wrote:Michael got upgraded because subjective analysis of radar velocities using GBVTD technique yielded 145kt, SFMR was at 152kt (which NHC explicitly said can be questionable), and a pressure of 919mb yielded 140kt using KZC.
Two of the three elements is missing is Ian's case, including SMFR being lower at 137kt, and pressure significantly higher at ~935mb. The key would be radar velocities, but mesovortices were very active in Ian's eyewall, so a single frame cannot be used to estimate the intensity (NHC usually did a 4-bin average). My personal take is that 135kt is a good compromise / blend of all the available data, so I would lean towards no upgrade.
There was a lot of radar data that showed velocities above 180 mph around 11K to 8K feet up.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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