hurricanes1234 wrote:Is it too late to ring the peak season bell?
https://i.postimg.cc/W4bcY46R/two-atl-5d0-15.png
The one to the east now also flipped to orange. Looks like 2022 is trying to make up for its slow start.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
hurricanes1234 wrote:Is it too late to ring the peak season bell?
https://i.postimg.cc/W4bcY46R/two-atl-5d0-15.png
Category5Kaiju wrote:The fact that we actually have a shot of getting to at least Julia even before the month's end...just wow. Compare that to what was going on in August or even early this month. I knew this season had potential, and look at what's it is already doing now.
The Atlantic basin nevers stops to intrigue me in how suddenly it can really get things going. Unlike the EPAC, for instance. Active periods in the Atlantic can start over merely days, and you can get one active storm one day, only to have 4 active ones 2 days later. Atlantic is as Atlantic does.
Category5Kaiju wrote:The fact that we actually have a shot of getting to at least Julia even before the month's end...just wow. Compare that to what was going on in August or even early this month. I knew this season had potential, and look at what's it is already doing now.
InfernoFlameCat wrote:I think it was a very slow start to the season lol. Wow 2022 is rapidly making up for its slow start. 2013 is trashed now.
Teban54 wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1574326088884400133?t=pE6bh0quP_bBOGrhJXO9EQ&s=19
2001 is an extreme late-boomer season, and all others are hyperactive.
The season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.
Yet another strong TUTT coming down north of the Caribbean for next week, don't look for any tropical activity in the central and eastern Caribbean
https://i.imgur.com/7A92UbN.gif
You know something has gone wrong this season when its peak season and GFS doesn't have anything in the Caribbean/Gulf at max range
https://i.imgur.com/gL6xMRW.png
Time to face the facts! We are looking towards the next two weeks with little chance of major action until the end of September.
No, the season is not over, but I believe it will vastly under perform. I am sure we will get some home brew activity in October, but not enough to salvage any forecast involving high activity.
It what nice to have something to watch and it’d going to be cool watching Earl go subtropical…after that, more likely than not see you guys next year. Yeah there have been seasons in the past that didn’t have strong hurricanes in the deep tropics until October but this isn’t 2001, I think of this year is what 2013 was but without the thermohaline circulation IMO, so we saw stronger storms than in 2013 but the wave breaking and dry mid latitude dry air is a similar issue this year as it was then…that’s just how I look at this year as…either way no matter how you look at it because I know many will disagree with my comparison which I totally don’t mind go ahead , this season is going to go down alongside 2005, 2020 and 2013 as one of the lost bizarre seasons in recent memory.
Hammy wrote:Some of the takes from Sep 8-12 range. This is more to illustrate why we shouldn't take quiet models (which have a terrible history regarding genesis) or one storm underperforming as a set in stone indicator for the rest of the season, but I've removed the names as I don't want this to turn into a calling out of individual postersThe season is probably nearly over now. I don’t see how one of the most suppressed years on record can produce anything significant now that we’re slowly easing out of peak climo. Maybe something spins up in the subtropics or mid-latitudes, but as for the deep tropics, it’s going to be very difficult to get anything going. The last system to form in the deep tropics was Bonnie in early July, and now the season feels even more suppressed than a typical July.Yet another strong TUTT coming down north of the Caribbean for next week, don't look for any tropical activity in the central and eastern Caribbean
https://i.imgur.com/7A92UbN.gifYou know something has gone wrong this season when its peak season and GFS doesn't have anything in the Caribbean/Gulf at max range
https://i.imgur.com/gL6xMRW.pngTime to face the facts! We are looking towards the next two weeks with little chance of major action until the end of September.No, the season is not over, but I believe it will vastly under perform. I am sure we will get some home brew activity in October, but not enough to salvage any forecast involving high activity.
And a nice reminder not to ignore that the THC collapse was the reason for the other hostile conditions through 2013's season, rather than being one minor contributor, and why that season is never a good comparison.It what nice to have something to watch and it’d going to be cool watching Earl go subtropical…after that, more likely than not see you guys next year. Yeah there have been seasons in the past that didn’t have strong hurricanes in the deep tropics until October but this isn’t 2001, I think of this year is what 2013 was but without the thermohaline circulation IMO, so we saw stronger storms than in 2013 but the wave breaking and dry mid latitude dry air is a similar issue this year as it was then…that’s just how I look at this year as…either way no matter how you look at it because I know many will disagree with my comparison which I totally don’t mind go ahead , this season is going to go down alongside 2005, 2020 and 2013 as one of the lost bizarre seasons in recent memory.
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Dougiefresh, Emmett_Brown, galvbay, HurricaneBelle, Jr0d, NDG, pepeavilenho, Wampadawg and 92 guests