ATL: IAN - Models

[marciacubed]

Here in Boynton Beach we have more than the predicted amount of rainfall already. Pool up more than 2 inches

[PTPatrick]

12z cmc still comes in with St Pete landfall. That’s a slight shift East as it was holing in with a cedar key landfall.

[LandoWill]

Is this because of the shear? Since the storm isn't coming into the tampa bay area as in the center? Typically west side is drier...

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

[tronbunny]

Is this because of the shear? Since the storm isn't coming into the tampa bay area as in the center? Typically west side is drier... https://imgur.com/p90TL4z

I don't think dry is a word we can use with Ian. Hopefully the prevailing winds will push the water Out of the bay for this one, helping to counteract the bulge ahead of the storm.

[toad strangler]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

The Ukie is leading the charge (modeled) south and east.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Largest influence on Charley's path near landfall on approach to west FL coast was as such - https://www.lakeeriewx.com/CaseStudies/HurricaneCharley/Charley'sTurn.gif ...lest we forget

Ian's modeled setup is =

GFS - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Euro = https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Wed NCEP analysis https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fndfd_init_2022092700.gif

I'd say they were very similar in setup - however the placement of Ian and current front differs and more importantly Ian's size ( mass) and the strength of the front is different. Remains to be seen but east shifts seem plausible and that puts any movement NW downstream in question UKMET has been onto something for quite a few runs. The fluid dynamics are key in how this is handled by each model.

Hey fellow Southport watcher. If you haven't been using it yet, I want to point out the ICON model. It has been the best performing of the 3 so far, and was picking up the eastward turn, and exit from east coast of Florida a couple days ago. The Euro and GFS have been following it this entire storm.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

The Ukie is leading the charge (modeled) south and east.

The ICON has been leading the charge for the past 2 days. Everyone was marking it as the outlier, when it has been the trendsetter.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

The Ukie is leading the charge (modeled) south and east.

The ICON has been leading the charge for the past 2 days. Everyone was marking it as the outlier, when it has been the trendsetter.

Actually, the UKMET has been leading the charge. The 12Z UKMET, now 20 miles south of Ft. Myers and putting Naples in the major storm surge danger zone, is the 11th in a row (going back to the 0Z 9/25 run) with a landfall south of Tampa, by far the best performance of the major operational models and even better than the ICON.

 Will future runs go even further south to Naples or has it reached its furthest south landfall point? We'll see.

[SFLcane]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

I think it has it nailed! We shall see

[TheHurricaneGod]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

One of those points is right near palmdale FL (west central peninsula). Measured distance of only 93 miles from where i am in fort lauderdale. that's getting pretty close

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS ensembles mean looks to be right through the Tampa area. Notice the initial NNE movement then a bend N to NNW with a stall as it approaches the coast at the end by many of the ensembles:

[SFLcane]

Wow i just noticed how far south the UKMET is...

[AutoPenalti]

Wow i just noticed how far south the UKMET is...

Can graphic be posted?

[SFLcane]

Wow i just noticed how far south the UKMET is...

Can graphic be posted?

Don't have it yet if anyone has please share.

Thanks!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow i just noticed how far south the UKMET is...

Can graphic be posted?

Don't have it yet if anyone has please share.

Thanks!

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

[PTPatrick]

The 12Z GFS ensembles mean looks to be right through the Tampa area. Notice the initial NNE movement then a bend N to NNW with a stall as it approaches the coast at the end by many of the ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/jqnFFfrL/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-96.gif

Illustrates perfectly why this Is still a threat for Tampa. Lots of time still, and I mentioned earlier but The bend back north and north northwest and slow movement is a very different setup from charley that crossed Florida in 10 hrs and cruised NNE to Canada in a nearly straight line. Until the right front quadrant and surge is onshore south of Tampa bay nobody in that surge zone should let the guard down. Of course the current trends look very bad for port Charlotte…so one man’s treasure is another’s trash.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1574803032545673218

[BensonTCwatcher]

Largest influence on Charley's path near landfall on approach to west FL coast was as such - https://www.lakeeriewx.com/CaseStudies/HurricaneCharley/Charley'sTurn.gif ...lest we forget

Ian's modeled setup is =

GFS - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Euro = https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Wed NCEP analysis https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fndfd_init_2022092700.gif

I'd say they were very similar in setup - however the placement of Ian and current front differs and more importantly Ian's size ( mass) and the strength of the front is different. Remains to be seen but east shifts seem plausible and that puts any movement NW downstream in question UKMET has been onto something for quite a few runs. The fluid dynamics are key in how this is handled by each model.

Hey fellow Southport watcher. If you haven't been using it yet, I want to point out the ICON model. It has been the best performing of the 3 so far, and was picking up the eastward turn, and exit from east coast of Florida a couple days ago. The Euro and GFS have been following it this entire storm.

Yep been watching the ICON and UKMET for days and wondering what they were seeing. AS far as performance, I guess it depends on the range. UKMET has not been as consistently accurate with tracks and hurricanes the past few years. I don't make decisions based on outliers though when reliable models and HNC track differs. ICON has been interesting to watch this year

[tolakram]

ICON has been all over the place. Just a few days ago it hit Miami. You want to trust it, go for it. As we get closer to landfall the models all will get more accurate since the timeframe is dropping.