ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

Kinda interesting that once Ian passes, its going to be extremely dry over SFL. RH seems to be less than 20% on the GFS & Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/DBXLbhx.png

Would be a blessing if we lose power (no AC)

[cane5]

So days later the ICON model looks sharp can anyone give update on latest model run it calculated a deepening trough.

[tolakram]

[Smurfwicked]

Tcvn shifts east again! Now south of nhc track

https://i.postimg.cc/GmMkYWjF/B63-C7-A9-B-5-A60-45-BC-A44-E-CCAE9-ADFF6-D9.png

With these continued east shifts I think there’s more of a possibility this gets out in the Atlantic and a possible 2nd landfall in SC

Model trends are looking that way. From memory Charleston SC always seemed to be more vulnerable than most other coastal cities to surge from weak systems.

[tolakram]

If you're looking at one model that you think is trending your way then you are doing it wrong.

6Z Euro. If I lived in Tampa I would not assume I knew this was going south. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

[Poonwalker]

Seems to be the norm. A system has Tampa Bay in the bullseye for several days aka Charley and Irma and jogs to the right in the last day or two. I don't think it got far enough West to hit Tampa Bay. Once a storm starts eastward very rarely would it come back westward. PORT Charlotte- Sarasota combined with history seems a good bet. Amy further Eastward based on the last gfs frame we (pinellas county) may end up in a dry slot aka Charley. Tracking radar, a slight East of North motion seems in place.

I agree. Looks like the south trend might be the outcome here. Iam not sure about the sunny side because this storm will be displaced with the NW quad having all the weather. I’ll take that though over the surge. Iam on high ground at my fiancés place but have an oldsmar townhouse that might flood.

[dspguy]

With these continued east shifts I think there’s more of a possibility this gets out in the Atlantic and a possible 2nd landfall in SC

What sort of intensity would one expect if Ian crosses FL and then gets out over open water before turning into SC?

[Kohlecane]

Tcvn shifts east again!

https://i.postimg.cc/GmMkYWjF/B63-C7-A9-B-5-A60-45-BC-A44-E-CCAE9-ADFF6-D9.png

Wow I'm here in Beaufort this has my attention even more, the UKMET/ICON have been hinting at it exiting the E coast of FL for a while now. The Gulf stream is untapped so the further south of JAX it comes off the more chance of another landfalling hurricane into SE coast IMAO

[tolakram]

6Z Euro

[pgoss11]

With these continued east shifts I think there’s more of a possibility this gets out in the Atlantic and a possible 2nd landfall in SC

What sort of intensity would one expect if Ian crosses FL and then gets out over open water before turning into SC?

That’s a hard question to answer. Much depends on the strength of Ian when he exits the peninsula and how fast the storm is moving. It’s a wait and see.

[Poonwalker]

6Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/cBx1bij.gif

That’s a disaster scenario for me and millions. Good grief

[tolakram]

With these continued east shifts I think there’s more of a possibility this gets out in the Atlantic and a possible 2nd landfall in SC

What sort of intensity would one expect if Ian crosses FL and then gets out over open water before turning into SC?

That’s a hard question to answer. Much depends on the strength of Ian when he exits the peninsula and how fast the storm is moving. It’s a wait and see.

No reliable model has Ian getting back into the Atlantic.

[Blinhart]

What sort of intensity would one expect if Ian crosses FL and then gets out over open water before turning into SC?

That’s a hard question to answer. Much depends on the strength of Ian when he exits the peninsula and how fast the storm is moving. It’s a wait and see.

No reliable model has Ian getting back into the Atlantic.

I see quite a few on the spaghetti models showing it going back into the Atlantic now.

[pgoss11]

What sort of intensity would one expect if Ian crosses FL and then gets out over open water before turning into SC?

That’s a hard question to answer. Much depends on the strength of Ian when he exits the peninsula and how fast the storm is moving. It’s a wait and see.

No reliable model has Ian getting back into the Atlantic.


Only the UKMET so far but this conversation was regarding possible future east shifts and the potential for is possible getting into the Atlantic.. not the current situation

[SFLcane]

Official in black and grey is consensus model tcvn you can see the shift SE.

[Stormgodess]

That’s a hard question to answer. Much depends on the strength of Ian when he exits the peninsula and how fast the storm is moving. It’s a wait and see.

No reliable model has Ian getting back into the Atlantic.

I see quite a few on the spaghetti models showing it going back into the Atlantic now.

The whole eastern seaboard looks a mess, like it's pulling Ian moisture into it. I was noticing that earlier and wondering what mechanics was behind it all. Since I genuinely know nothing

[cane5]

We knew nothing until it really encountered more things and when it became a full hurricane. This continues to trend east closer to Ft Myers. We need to get on top of the ICON model it’s been reliable can anyone update that my del please.

[SFLcane]

certainly think this is on the table now...

[TallyTracker]

To emphasize the model spread:

06z Euro = Tampa Bay Landfall
06z GFS = Venice/Sarasota Landfall
06z ICON = Pine Island/Port Charlotte Landfall
00z CMC = Cedar Key Landfall

The final landfall location is far from certain. That’s 180 miles of spread yet as the crow flies.

[eastcoastFL]

Official in black and grey is consensus model tcvn you can see the shift SE.

https://i.postimg.cc/HLZgxM34/ccc-jpeg.jpg

One solid consistency over the past 48 hours has been models shifting east. It’s been endless and admittedly a bit scary. Now with the trough moving in it’s becoming more of a when rather than an if.