ATL: IAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
viberama
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Age: 52
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:36 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
Contact:
Contact viberama

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2981 Postby viberama » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:02 pm

otowntiger wrote:
viberama wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.


Eric Buress at WESH 2 is a decent meteorologist but can be melodramatic sometimes. I wouldn't read too much into it.

But in this case he’s being the opposite of be melodramatic, right? He’s in Orlando- if he wanted to be melodramatic he’d be hyping the latest Euro, not calling for it to be thrown out.


No, I do not call his statement undramatic. He might have been thinking out loud and just posted that tweet without actually thinking about it! Who knows.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2982 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:02 pm

Image
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2983 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:07 pm

:crazyeyes: ensembles now all south of Tampa!

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
5 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2984 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:09 pm

18Z Euro
Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2985 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:13 pm

Ironically TWC are still using the 12z model run.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2986 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:14 pm

Ukmet I see you.
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2987 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Looks like it was missing data see above


Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.


Missing data? Um what lol. :lol:

First for me



I wonder if that's why when I was watching the weather channel, he(can't remember his name) said, " here is the EURO model, not the last one, but the one before it".... I was wondering, why would he show us the one before it?
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 498
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2988 Postby Beef Stew » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:23 pm

SFLcane wrote::crazyeyes: ensembles now all south of Tampa!

https://i.postimg.cc/4yTcZcJb/6-C0-DCF05-A16-D-434-A-A13-E-9-CC81-ECC6-CBC.jpg



And there’s the shock of the night. If the UKMet ends up nailing this after all, it’ll be quite a showing for the model. All eyes are waiting on the 0z GFS ensembles now.
2 likes   
Top
MrJames
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:56 am
Location: Jax, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2989 Postby MrJames » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:24 pm

SFLcane wrote::crazyeyes: ensembles now all south of Tampa!

https://i.postimg.cc/4yTcZcJb/6-C0-DCF05-A16-D-434-A-A13-E-9-CC81-ECC6-CBC.jpg


Spaghetti version

Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2990 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:24 pm

Image
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2991 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:24 pm

Tolakram, sorry if this has been asked already but are the EURO maps that you are posting the corrected EURO? or was it never wrong to begin with? Sorry....
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2992 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:26 pm

hohnywx wrote:
tolakram wrote:I don't trust anything that comes from WESH, they do not have a good track record and I am not familiar with the mets that work there. I have no idea what missing data means.


And he is ignoring requests to respond and explain. Sorry I posted the tweet.

I'm glad you did. I think HE's missing data.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2993 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:27 pm

Image
18z ECMWF… Finishes at 90 hrs…
Kinda stunned!
4 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2994 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:30 pm

More concerns for Carolinas.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1574570909473513472


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2108
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2995 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:31 pm

For what it's worth 18z CMC/Canadian is a little east toward Cedar Key from 12z
Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2996 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:31 pm

On behalf of the 3 million residents of Tampa Bay area, we thank you Euro!
6 likes   
Top
User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 498
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2997 Postby Beef Stew » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:34 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwyPyTJQ/ecmwf-uv10-watl.gif [/url]
18z ECMWF… Finishes at 90 hrs…
Kinda stunned!


Not that this path is by
any means guaranteed- but a track like that puts Cape Canaveral through St Augustine at substantially more risk for wind as well as surge. Not to mention the threat GA/the Carolinas would potentially face a few days later…
Last edited by Beef Stew on Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2998 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:35 pm

How does the UL flow/forecast shear on the 18z GFS compare to Michael and Charley? The UL flow looks like it might actually help the storm instead of hinder it, giving it decent ventilation until close to Florida later Wednesday morning.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2999 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:37 pm

EURO showing it as a threat to the east coast now.......let's hope that doesn't pan out...
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#3000 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:38 pm

ronjon wrote:On behalf of the 3 million residents of Tampa Bay area, we thank you Euro!

Happy for them, not so happy for me... Cat 1 conditions in CFL for sure, even in Kissimmee if this verifies
2 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest