ATL: IAN - Models

[skillz305]

https://i.imgur.com/G1BF3ES.png

GFS is SE on 18z at 42hr

[Blown Away]

18z ICON... Almost giving up the stall and NE OTS.

[jhpigott]

https://i.imgur.com/G1BF3ES.png

Still a bit SE of 12Z

May come in south of Tampa if it keeps up on this heading

[tolakram]

[hurricaneCW]

https://i.imgur.com/KiM8CUs.gif
18z ICON... Almost giving up the stall and NE OTS.

No OTS with blocking high. If it succumbs to the trough it'll eventually get pulled NW again into the Carolinas

[tolakram]

[SouthernBreeze]

ICON goes just far enough E in Atlantic to get Gulf Stream boost before back inland

[skillz305]

[tolakram]

[NDG]

First time looking at models since 8 AM this morning, not looking good for Tampa Bay down to Venice.
I hope everyone in low lying areas prone storm surge never seen in a long time evacuate if indeed Ian comes to a crawl if not stall just offshore or as it comes inland.

[skillz305]

First time looking at models since 8 AM this morning, not looking good for Tampa Bay down to Venice.
I hope everyone in low lying areas prone storm surge never seen in a long time evacuate if indeed Ian comes to a crawl if not stall just offshore or as it comes inland.

18z GFS run indeed shows a stall. IMO its another trend east, any more east of a trend on the next GFS run, maybe it gets picks up NE by the trough thru Central Florida? (who knows)


edit: wow gfs 18z shows ian bouncing off florida after stalling, then shooting north

[tolakram]

[NDG]

First time looking at models since 8 AM this morning, not looking good for Tampa Bay down to Venice.
I hope everyone in low lying areas prone storm surge never seen in a long time evacuate if indeed Ian comes to a crawl if not stall just offshore or as it comes inland.

18z GFS run indeed shows a stall. IMO its another trend east, any more east of a trend on the next GFS run, maybe it gets picks up NE by the trough thru Central Florida? (who knows)


edit: wow gfs 18z shows ian bouncing off florida after stalling, then shooting north

The GFS showing Ian stalling or barely moving near Tampa Bay for 24-36 hrs is just crazy, the storm surge from Tampa Bay down south is going to be horrendous.

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS truly is the worst case scenario. Rain would not be measured in inches, but feet instead....Then again the EURO is bad as well, just don't see a win-win situation here........

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[ConvergenceZone]

First time looking at models since 8 AM this morning, not looking good for Tampa Bay down to Venice.
I hope everyone in low lying areas prone storm surge never seen in a long time evacuate if indeed Ian comes to a crawl if not stall just offshore or as it comes inland.

18z GFS run indeed shows a stall. IMO its another trend east, any more east of a trend on the next GFS run, maybe it gets picks up NE by the trough thru Central Florida? (who knows)


edit: wow gfs 18z shows ian bouncing off florida after stalling, then shooting north

The GFS showing Ian stalling or barely moving near Tampa Bay for 24-36 hrs is just crazy, the storm surge from Tampa Bay down south is going to be horrendous.

I agree, IF this comes to pass, this would be a headline news story for many weeks........All we can do now is just HOPE for the best...Like they said on the weather channel, even if it weakens to a cat 1 before coming onshore, the surge damage and flooding could still be horrific due to the slow movement...

[PandaCitrus]

Was that a peek a boo landfall in Pinellas County and then bounce off for 18z GFS? Seems Tampa Bay would get horrible surge for 24+ hours

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON and HWRF appear to both be coming in further east on the 18z.

It’s a game of inches at this point. On a southern approach a wobble here or there makes all the difference in the world.


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[skyline385]

HMON barely intensifies Ian going into Cuba and makes a landfall south of Tampa Bay

[LarryWx]

18 UKMET is not at all giving up on the SE outlier scenario as it is 30 miles NE of the 12Z run moving toward Punta Gorda area once again.