Shell Mound wrote:FireRat wrote:It is really cool to look back on the past 2 years and see how things played out! Who knows what we're going to look back on when looking at 2022 in hindsight!Shell Mound wrote:For purposes of comparison, here are FireRat’s previous “outlooks” for the seasons of 2020 and 2021, respectively:
2020 Oddball Outlook (“issued” 24 April 2020): 19 NS / 9 H / 6 MH; ACE 175–225.........
On another note, one can even see some non-meteorological correlations between past Years of the Tiger and 2022! Regarding international events in Years of the Tiger since 1851...........
2020 was absolutely nuts, and 2021 was fairly close to the "outlook" that was posted, perhaps I've been kinda lucky with the overall predictions so far hehe.
Actually, some of your “predictions” for 2020 relied on some very unlikely occurrences, yet still ended up verifying. For example, you “forecast” a very active October/November in the general region of the Caribbean Sea, including the possibility of up to three majors and impacts that would rival September’s. This outlook was very bold, yet transpired. I looked at historical data going back to 1900 (earlier coverage is sparser and thus less reliable) and examined previous occurrences of upper-tier (Category-4+) major-hurricane impacts in the Caribbean region and, having compiled the resultant data, calculated the following statistics:
Since 1900, 22 Category-4+ systems in the Caribbean Sea during Oct/Nov
# systems/YYYY: 1/1921…1/1924…1/1926…2/1932…1/1944…1/1952…1/1961…1/1963…1/1966…1/1988…1/1998…1/1999…1/2000…2/2001…1/2005…1/2008…1/2016…3/2020
# years b/w YYYY: 3…2…6…12…8…9…2…3…22…10…1…1…1…4…3…8…4…?
# of years sampled: 18
Average # systems/year: 15 + 7 = 22/18 = ~1.22
Average gap b/w year(s): 99/17 = ~5.824
Long-term mean: ~1.22 systems / ~5.824 years (~1 system / ~6 years) X x systems / 1 year = ~0.21 systems / year
So based on a random sample, given the results above (~0.21 Cat-4+ Caribbean MH during a random Oct/Nov period), one would not have expected the possibility of multiple Cat-4+ in the Caribbean during October/November in a single season. Yet you highlighted the possibility in 2020, having selected the year 1780 (with its deadly Cat-3+ triplets in the Caribbean during Oct/Nov, at least two of which were likely Cat-4+) as an analog, and your “forecast” verified! As one can see above, 2020 set a one-year record for Cat-4+ impacts in the Caribbean during Oct/Nov, at least since relatively reliable records became available in 1900.
On another note, regarding 2022, while looking back at the Chinese Zodiac and the five elements I noticed something. As is known, the Chinese astrological system relies on polarities between opposing parties, including active/dominant and inactive/passive elements. For example, Years of the Tiger are typically paired with their opposite, Years of the Monkey. Also, according to the Chinese astrological system, the active/passive elements are as following: Metal/Wood, Water/Fire, Wood/Earth, Fire/Metal, and Earth/Water. So a Water Tiger is in a dominant position relative to its partner, the Fire Monkey. The three most recent of such pairings:
Water Tiger/Fire Monkey: 1) 1902/1872, 2) 1962/1932, 3) 2022/1992
1) a) 1902/1872 and b) 1962/1932 are converses in terms of track/clustering (steering):
a):
https://i.ibb.co/d0LvdyZ/1902-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
https://i.ibb.co/qxSzL3S/1872-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/1872_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1872_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
b):
https://i.ibb.co/n6b9Zr5/1962-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d2/1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
https://i.ibb.co/sJW9CTb/1932-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/46/1932_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1932_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
2) 1962 is the inverse of 1902 in terms of track/clustering (steering):
https://i.ibb.co/n6b9Zr5/1962-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d2/1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1962_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
https://i.ibb.co/d0LvdyZ/1902-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1902_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
2022: inverse of 1962, converse of 1992?
https://i.ibb.co/GCQwRbJ/1992-H5.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/34/1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
????
????
Some takeaway notes from the above:Interestingly, Years of the Snake cross Years of the Tiger at a 45° angle, and a Fire Snake, 1929, produced the devastating “Great Andros/Nassau” hurricane (135 kt/924 mb) in the Bahamas. That hurricane later struck the Florida Keys as a 100-kt Cat-3. Notice a pattern? “Fiery” years really tend to devastate the Bahamas, especially the capital Nassau, and in several cases (like 1926 and 1929) actually overlap with years that produced big impacts on peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, including Years of the Tiger. Could 2022 produce a storm that is much larger than the 1929 hurricane but is similar to Andrew in intensity and follows a 1929-type track, stalling over the central Bahamas near Nassau and even heading south of due west (Dorian and the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane also stalled and drifted over/near the Bahamas, like the 1929 hurricane), before turning back to the NW and NNW and striking Miami head-on as a high-end major?
- Years of the Tiger such as 1866 and 1926 were, along with (take note!) the Fire Monkey 1932, among the worst on record in the Bahamas, particularly in and near the capital Nassau.
- According to Wayne Neely’s The Greatest and Deadliest Hurricanes to Impact the Bahamas (Cheyenne, WI: URLink, 2019, pp. 461–3), the Cape Verde-type “Great Nassau” hurricane of 1866 killed 387 people in the Bahamas and passed directly over Nassau as a 120-kt/938-mb Cat-4 in October, devastating the sponge-based local economy. In 1926 the unusual Cat-4 “Nassau” hurricane (120 kt) in July and the devastating “Great Miami” hurricane (130 kt) in September killed up to 268 and 123 individuals in the Bahamas, respectively, and in 1932 the “Great Abaco” hurricane, the worst to hit the Abaco Islands until 160-kt, Cat-5 Dorian (2019), passed over the same settlements that Dorian impacted with an intensity of 140 kt/≤ 921 mb, killing 18 people there.
- If 2022 were to be the inverse of 1962 and the converse of 1992, it may end up being far more eventful than the former but be a “modified” version of the latter. Like the Fire Monkey 1992 but also in common with Tigers such as 1926 and 1950, maybe 2022 ends up being a year that is measured more in terms of quality/impact > quantity, and delivers a big impact to peninsular Florida and/or the Keys, as past “climatology” for the Tigers suggests. But instead of a small-sized Andrew tracking westward, maybe 2022 features a similarly intense but much larger system tracking north-northwestward across South Florida and Lake Okeechobee, following the various solutions for Irma that were feared but didn’t materialise, while paralleling Cat-4 King’s trajectory (1950) and hitting Miami hard (as in 1926).
- Since 2016 virtually every region of the Bahamas has been hit hard except the capital (Nassau). During the same timeframe much of the CONUS has been hammered except Greater Miami (Southeast Florida). Will 2022 feature a powerful, large Cat-4+ that devastates Nassau en route to Miami before tracking NNW across Lake Okeechobee, like a more northerly version of Irma, being a blend of Andrew (intensity), 1926 Miami/Irma (large size), and 1950’s King (track across Miami/Lake Okeechobee)?
Another fact: the Tiger years very often featured individual storms that either a) hit both peninsular Florida and locations farther north (as did Storm #5 in 1878) or b) separately struck peninsular Florida and/or the Keys and the East Coast (like Bonnie and Georges in 1998, as well as Storms #5 and #11 in 1878). Could 2022’s “big one,” another storm, or both impact locations farther north along the East Coast as well as the Bahamas and South Florida? Could the possible “big one” that I highlighted above also parallel the east coast of Florida from Okeechobee to Orlando and Jacksonville before continuing northward past Savannah, Charleston, and Norfolk en route to the Mid-Atlantic and/or New England, somewhat like Donna (1960) in part, or the modelled “doomsday” solutions for Irma? Such an outcome would blend the Tigers 1878, 1926, 1938, 1950, and/or 1998 all together, with some input from 1866, 1929, 1962, and 1992, possibly.
Thanks again for the review above Shellmound!
2020 was indeed a crazy year to begin making these threads lol, that late-season was insane.
That's the Year of the Rat for ya, big on October-November storms!
One slight correction to your years above, the years 1932/1992 were Water Monkey and 1929 was Earth Snake (like 1989). There's a good rule of thumb to know which element year we're in...
By looking at the last digit of the year, if the year ends in 0,1 it is Metal/ ends in 2,3 it is Water/ ends in 4,5 it is Wood/ ends in 6,7 it is Fire/ and ends in 8,9 it is Earth.
2022 and 1992 would still be opposing poles because of the Tiger VS Monkey, but of the same Water element.
Interesting how Tiger & Monkey years share the infamous List 2 of Hurricane names too.
I really have a personal hunch that 2022 could try to be like a busy version of 1992, as far as NS/H/MH ratio and potential high impact storm goes... like if 1992's numbers were X3 or even X4. Hurricane Andrew itself also fits a Tiger-year-like track too. So yeah man, maybe 2022 could be a 'converse' of 1992, where we see an Andrew-like storm or two 30 years after Andrew himself.
Then again, there's that small chance that 2022 completely busts our speculations and pulls a 1962 instead