ATL: IAN - Models

[SFLcane]

We have afternoon showers that were stronger than that.

In all seriousness, still far out in time so this will change.

I can't see how this gets far north in the gulf without getting yanked eastward sooner rather then later IF the euro is right.

https://i.postimg.cc/gj5JpZNZ/ecmtt.gif

It's 8 days out. It's not going to be 100% right. What you can or should be able to see is high pressure building back over the top though that doesn't really happen all that much later in the year - more of an earlier in the season dynamic. I'd agree that the likelihood of a NE pull makes sense, but I'm not basing that off an upper model that far out - not the specifics anyway.

Indeed thats why the use of ensembles is the way to go. For example the GFS ensemble mean has been the right of the OP since this started it seems.

[Steve]

I can't see how this gets far north in the gulf without getting yanked eastward sooner rather then later IF the euro is right.

https://i.postimg.cc/gj5JpZNZ/ecmtt.gif

It's 8 days out. It's not going to be 100% right. What you can or should be able to see is high pressure building back over the top though that doesn't really happen all that much later in the year - more of an earlier in the season dynamic. I'd agree that the likelihood of a NE pull makes sense, but I'm not basing that off an upper model that far out - not the specifics anyway.

Indeed thats why the use of ensembles is the way to go. For example the GFS ensemble mean has been the right of the OP since this started it seems.

They may be right and often make better sense to follow than just the operational run. However, there were issues in 2021 with some of the ensembles trailing the operationals and having to correct. I can't remember the specific systems because it was last year. But a couple pros chimed in to discuss why those runs should be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. ICON (longer run at 12z) should be up in the next 20 minutes if TT is getting data timely.

[N2FSU]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

Shift east Tcvn..

Note that the TVCN likely missed the 6Z GFS data, which is why it's farther east.

Well that doesn't make me feel good here in Tallahassee.


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[sweetpea]

Shift east Tcvn..

Note that the TVCN likely missed the 6Z GFS data, which is why it's farther east.

Well that doesn't make me feel good here in Tallahassee.


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No it doesn't, watching this one very closely. Trying to decide which direction we would go. We won't be staying here if this does verify.

[Lightning48]

I believe the bottom line is we know the ingredients will be there and have an idea what proximity the then storm will take its turn north, But what we don't know is after turning north, where does it ,if it does make the NE turn. That will keep changing each model run to some extent. My question is how big as far as size goes do you think it will be?

[SFLcane]

With a front drapped over florida i mean how much north can it go before turning NE? I pose this question also for wxman57.

[pgoss11]

With a front drapped over florida i mean how much north can it go before turning NE? I pose this question also for wxman57.

https://i.postimg.cc/k5NpBTTv/front.png

That’s a good question! Looks like it should go NE once it gets to that front. Maybe wxman57 can answer that.

[jhpigott]

Did the HWRF and HMON run for 06z today for 98L?

[Stormcenter]

With a front drapped over florida i mean how much north can it go before turning NE? I pose this question also for wxman57.

https://i.postimg.cc/k5NpBTTv/front.png

Unless it stalls

[TallyTracker]

Note that the TVCN likely missed the 6Z GFS data, which is why it's farther east.

Well that doesn't make me feel good here in Tallahassee.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No it doesn't, watching this one very closely. Trying to decide which direction we would go. We won't be staying here if this does verify.

I have a trip to the Midwest scheduled for early October. I was gonna fly, but if this comes, I might move it to next week and drive…lol

[texsn95]

That seems like an unusually deep dive into the GOM for a weak, late summer front, no?

[TallyTracker]

With a front drapped over florida i mean how much north can it go before turning NE? I pose this question also for wxman57.

https://i.postimg.cc/k5NpBTTv/front.png

The question is when does the front get there versus when the storm is approaching the weakness? If what is shown materializes then I would expect the storm to turn NE. If the front is still over the SE with the storm in the same location, the storm may make it further north before turning NE. It’s all about the timing of the various elements.

[TallyTracker]

That seems like an unusually deep dive into the GOM for a weak, late summer front, no?

I lived in Tampa for much of the past 20 years. Generally the first major cold front was in October sometime. I do remember in 2006 the first cold front was in September and contributed to shutting down hurricane season early. So I’d say it would be slightly early but not terribly unusual to have a late September front.

[SFLcane]

With a front drapped over florida i mean how much north can it go before turning NE? I pose this question also for wxman57.

https://i.postimg.cc/k5NpBTTv/front.png

The question is when does the front get there versus when the storm is approaching the weakness? If what is shown materializes then I would expect the storm to turn NE. If the front is still over the SE with the storm in the same location, the storm may make it further north before turning NE. It’s all about the timing of the various elements.

Surely, timing is everything no doupt. We will no more in a few days. Certainly not worth get caught up on any individual OP run this early. Has to form first.

[p1nheadlarry]

That seems like an unusually deep dive into the GOM for a weak, late summer front, no?

Poleward moving Pacific storms might be amplifying the planetary wave pattern, but just how zonal or not it will be and the timing of it all is key here

[chris_fit]

12Z ICON at the NE tip of the Yucatan. Decent W Shift from 00Z (where it was near W tip of Cuba)

[AutoPenalti]

Big change, this looks less organized now.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS rolling in.

Weaker and more S through 48hrs

[Blown Away]

GFS has been trending faster and is now, timing wise, in line with the Euro.

[MississippiWx]

The GFS is just correcting itself towards the other models that have been much slower with development. It still may be another 3 days before we have a bonafide tropical cyclone.