ATL: IAN - Models

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is 2-3 hours late because of the network problems, must've been a big one.

[SFLcane]

This would certainly be lights out for millions across South Florida.

[AutoPenalti]

This would certainly be lights out for millions across South Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/NMGBnKJ6/ecmwf.gif

I noticed the timing has lowered from 10/1 to 9/29...

[Spacecoast]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

I'm always puzzled when the GFS (AVN2) is the far W outlier in a model run, especially when the Euro (AEMI) is much farther E.

Anybody got thoughts on this?

AVN2 is the 12hr interpolated version of the GFS (AVN0)
AEMI is the GEFS ensemble mean, (not Euro) which sometimes aligns with AVN0, but not always. GEFS runs a different, earlier version.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

Shift east Tcvn..

TVCN is NHC default track, they need a really good reason to deviate from it. If you are near the TVCN line, you have trouble brewing.

[SFLcane]

Just a bit windy across South Florida on the Euro. This event would rival that of wilma for most of South Florida.

[SFLcane]

06z EPS.. You can see the growing cluster of members over Cuba and Cayman islands.

[Spacecoast]

06z EPS..

https://i.postimg.cc/FKxY21c9/ecm06z.gif

Does that look like a decent west shift from 0z?
EDIT: Yes, it does...
Comparison 0z to 6z...

[AutoPenalti]

Just a bit windy across South Florida on the Euro. This event would rival that of wilma for most of South Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/YCTQqcGV/ecmgust.png

We have afternoon showers that were stronger than that.

In all seriousness, still far out in time so this will change.

[SFLcane]

Just a bit windy across South Florida on the Euro. This event would rival that of wilma for most of South Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/YCTQqcGV/ecmgust.png

We have afternoon showers that were stronger than that.

In all seriousness, still far out in time so this will change.

I can't see how this gets far north in the gulf without getting yanked eastward sooner rather then later IF the euro is right.

[blp]

Ensembles mean continue to be on the east side of the operational.

[SFLcane]

Ensembles mean continue to be on the east side of the operational.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1192e85e3a2af9c1776dcbbe1fe31b5b8613ed60b276ac861ffec94775e39d89.png

yea, ensemble mean will not agree with OP and continues to be on the east side.

[wxman57]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

Shift east Tcvn..

Note that the TVCN likely missed the 6Z GFS data, which is why it's farther east.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

Shift east Tcvn..

Note that the TVCN likely missed the 6Z GFS data, which is why it's farther east.

Talk to us about South Florida? What is your take on the 00z Euro?

Appreciate your insight.

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

Shift east Tcvn..

Note that the TVCN likely missed the 6Z GFS data, which is why it's farther east.

Do you mean it's, for lack of a better term, a bogus run, or lacking data?

[Iceresistance]

Shift east Tcvn..

Note that the TVCN likely missed the 6Z GFS data, which is why it's farther east.

Do you mean it's, for lack of a better term, a bogus run, or lacking data?

There was a outage this morning that likely factored why the TVCN may have missed the 6z GFS run, which also factored why it shifted east even more.

[skyline385]

Weenie jokes aside, todays SHIPS is a sign of how favorable the conditions for 98L could potentially be.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572598639918485505





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[boca]

So I shift west is most likely? It seems like the panhandle is ground zero with the models

[Steve]

Just a bit windy across South Florida on the Euro. This event would rival that of wilma for most of South Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/YCTQqcGV/ecmgust.png

We have afternoon showers that were stronger than that.

In all seriousness, still far out in time so this will change.

I can't see how this gets far north in the gulf without getting yanked eastward sooner rather then later IF the euro is right.

https://i.postimg.cc/gj5JpZNZ/ecmtt.gif

It's 8 days out. It's not going to be 100% right. What you can or should be able to see is high pressure building back over the top though that doesn't really happen all that much later in the year - more of an earlier in the season dynamic. I'd agree that the likelihood of a NE pull makes sense, but I'm not basing that off an upper model that far out - not the specifics anyway.

[SFLcane]

So I shift west is most likely? It seems like the panhandle is ground zero with the models

The entire eastern gulf including Florida is fair game in my opinion.