ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

06z GFS trend

[Jelmergraaff]

06z GFS trend

https://i.imgur.com/dnfEEdT.gif

At +132h it passes just SW of the Cayman Islands.

[Dean4Storms]

Guidance sure is zeroing in on the Eastern Gulf and particularly Florida, let’s hope dry air and/or shear delivers some punch before any landfall.

[Jelmergraaff]

Guidance sure is zeroing in on the Eastern Gulf and particularly Florida, let’s hope dry air and/or shear delivers some punch before any landfall.

GFS (06z) again. At +156h around the western tip of Cuba, probably headed for Florida again this run. Seems to be even stronger than the 00z-run.

[wzrgirl1]

Euro has a deeper trof extending southwest from Michigan to the NW Gulf next Wednesday as this system would enter the SE Gulf. That's why it takes it across Florida. Don't see how it could track toward LA or TX with strong WSW flow aloft across the northern Gulf. Well, the numbers aren't reaching what I expected, but I did say that the two areas to watch are the NE Caribbean Islands (Fiona) and Florida & the SE U.S. for significant impacts.

As of today, where in Florida? Panhandle, Tampa Area, South Florida? I know it can change but I am just asking as of today where do the synoptics and models point to?

[Jelmergraaff]

Euro has a deeper trof extending southwest from Michigan to the NW Gulf next Wednesday as this system would enter the SE Gulf. That's why it takes it across Florida. Don't see how it could track toward LA or TX with strong WSW flow aloft across the northern Gulf. Well, the numbers aren't reaching what I expected, but I did say that the two areas to watch are the NE Caribbean Islands (Fiona) and Florida & the SE U.S. for significant impacts.

As of today, where in Florida? Panhandle, Tampa Area, South Florida? I know it can change but I am just asking as of today where do the synoptics and models point to?

Probably too soon to say something about it. Model spread is still relatively large. Euro takes it right over Southern Flordia into the North Atlantic, but GFS (06z) has landfall next Friday between Mobile and Panama City. I do think that Flordia has by-far the highest chances regarding a potential US-landfall right now.

[toad strangler]

6z GFS is a big mid panhandle strike

[chris_fit]

Euro has a deeper trof extending southwest from Michigan to the NW Gulf next Wednesday as this system would enter the SE Gulf. That's why it takes it across Florida. Don't see how it could track toward LA or TX with strong WSW flow aloft across the northern Gulf. Well, the numbers aren't reaching what I expected, but I did say that the two areas to watch are the NE Caribbean Islands (Fiona) and Florida & the SE U.S. for significant impacts.

As of today, where in Florida? Panhandle, Tampa Area, South Florida? I know it can change but I am just asking as of today where do the synoptics and models point to?

Don't want to put words in 57s mouth, but 'as of today' this doesn't matter. Impossible to tell/give a landfall point, especially on the FL Peninsula where if a storm is coming from the southwest has a deviation in track of 30-40 miles, that can change the landfall point on the W Coast of FL by hundreds of miles. Remember Irma and Charley? Models/NHC couldn't even nail the landfall location 24 hours out - and we're about 8-9x that away now.

Don't focus on this now. Some Models (including Ensembles here ) take it to northern gulf - same take it east of FL. Likely to be somewhere in between.

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend - Gotta say, pretty consistent.

Another Euro vs GFS battle here. So far GFS is 2-0

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/nicklilja/status/1572570797222563840

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/nicklilja/status/1572570797222563840?s=46&t=o_63yUyVsFF6pgbkfDZDdw

Not sure what he's insinuating. A FL peninsula hit or farther east?

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

Shift east Tcvn..

[robbielyn]

https://twitter.com/nicklilja/status/1572570797222563840?s=46&t=o_63yUyVsFF6pgbkfDZDdw

Not sure what he's insinuating. A FL peninsula hit or farther east?

He is saying it is possible it will miss the gulf altogether because those storms will make the trough dig deeper kicking it east into the atlantic.

[Stormcenter]

IMO everyone in the NC & NE GOM is still in play.

I don’t trust Sept. troughs and we have a lot of time
if and when this actually organizes.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/nicklilja/status/1572570797222563840?s=46&t=o_63yUyVsFF6pgbkfDZDdw

Not sure what he's insinuating. A FL peninsula hit or farther east?

He is saying it is possible it will miss the gulf altogether because those storms will make the trough dig deeper kicking it east into the atlantic.

Again, not sure what he is insinuating. A re-curve out into the Atlantic?

[robbielyn]

Not sure what he's insinuating. A FL peninsula hit or farther east?

He is saying it is possible it will miss the gulf altogether because those storms will make the trough dig deeper kicking it east into the atlantic.

Again, not sure what he is insinuating. A re-curve out into the Atlantic?

yes just east of of fl peninsula around the western periphery of the bermuda high. probably require a just west of central cuba crossover into the straits.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS Trend - Gotta say, pretty consistent.

Another Euro vs GFS battle here. So far GFS is 2-0

https://i.imgur.com/OjHH09k.gif

If you want to sum up what the GFS has been persistently thinking regarding what track 98L will take in the future, then it would surely be this :



There is still much uncertainty left in determining where exactly it will go, but trends do seem to unfortunately favor a hit on Florida and much more likely on Cuba too.

[JPmia]

https://twitter.com/nicklilja/status/1572570797222563840?s=46&t=o_63yUyVsFF6pgbkfDZDdw

Not sure what he's insinuating. A FL peninsula hit or farther east?

He is saying it is possible it will miss the gulf altogether because those storms will make the trough dig deeper kicking it east into the atlantic.

I responded to him with that question, but my guess is that is what he means, east of Florida. I've had this suspicion too this far out. Models may not be picking up on it just yet since it is still far out. Wonder what WxMan57's thoughts are.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/NClt4zo.png

I'm always puzzled when the GFS (AVN2) is the far W outlier in a model run, especially when the Euro (AEMI) is much farther E.

Anybody got thoughts on this?