ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Based upon the data, my intensity guess for Fiona is 110 kts.

[PavelGaborik10]

Yeah I agree, I was watching that earlier, but it looks like its slowly being pulled into the core. Speaking of the core, cloud tops continuing to cool at a good clip. I imagine raw T's must be skyrocketing right now.

The band being drawn closer to the core may start another EWRC sometime tomorrow, unless the band dies off overnight.

You have a point, the band has largely stopped migrating in its position relative to the core. Not only that, but there almost seems like a new moat forming immediately outside the new eyewall. Maybe this is why the latest GFS doesn't get this much below 950mb.

The GFS drops this sub 930 MB when as it interacts with a strong trough near SE Canada in less than 3 days.

[Iceresistance]

Recon needs to be careful going into the eastern band, there is an INSANE amount of lightning there, nearly 1000 strikes every 10 minutes!

[MarioProtVI]

Definitely support for at least 105 kt. I think we’ll see C4 very soon.

[Iceresistance]

ADT is way too high for this.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2022 Time : 222020 UTC
Lat : 22:45:00 N Lon : 71:33:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 934mb / 125kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +15.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[Iceresistance]

Recon going for NE-SW pass, this could be a crazy one.

[CrazyC83]

Sometimes the satellite can lead actual strengthening. That happened with Michael the night before landfall, when Dvorak had T7.0 but it was still rising upwards and was 110-115 kt at the time.

[Jelmergraaff]

Recon going for NE-SW pass, this could be a crazy one.

I'll probably stay awake until the results of the NE-quadrant are in (local time is 00.58 AM now). We've just reached the first ground frost in The Netherlands so I am still awake anyway.

[Jelmergraaff]

Dropsonde had a pressure of 953 mb with 3 kt.

[Iceresistance]

VDM just came out.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072022
A. 20/22:21:21Z
B. 22.76 deg N 071.64 deg W
C. 700 MB 2688 m
D. 953 mb
E. 05 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C28
H. 83 kt
I. 273 deg 10 nm 22:19:01Z
J. 000 deg 94 kt
K. 273 deg 10 nm 22:19:02Z
L. 102 kt
M. 091 deg 16 nm 22:30:32Z
N. 177 deg 117 kt
O. 090 deg 22 nm 22:32:03Z
P. 10 C / 3065 m
Q. 17 C / 3073 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA3 2107A FIONA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 090 / 22 NM 22:32:03Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 273 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[aspen]

VDM just came out.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072022
A. 20/22:21:21Z
B. 22.76 deg N 071.64 deg W
C. 700 MB 2688 m
D. 953 mb
E. 05 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C28
H. 83 kt
I. 273 deg 10 nm 22:19:01Z
J. 000 deg 94 kt
K. 273 deg 10 nm 22:19:02Z
L. 102 kt
M. 091 deg 16 nm 22:30:32Z
N. 177 deg 117 kt
O. 090 deg 22 nm 22:32:03Z
P. 10 C / 3065 m
Q. 17 C / 3073 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA3 2107A FIONA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 090 / 22 NM 22:32:03Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 273 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

I think this is the first VDM to find a completely closed eye in Fiona. Also no sign of an EWRC or double wind maxima. It’s all systems go for Fiona until that other band starts causing issues (if it does).

[weeniepatrol]

Rapid deepening underway? Recon showing 951mb extrap with 80 kt FL winds

[Jelmergraaff]

Rapid deepening underway? Recon showing 951mb extrap with 80 kt FL winds
https://i.imgur.com/VtFfrzg.png

SFMR now also slighly above 105 kt (unflagged).

[Iceresistance]

I know it's instantaneous wind measurements from the East Eyewall dropsonde, but WOW!


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/East-eyewall-of-Fiona.png

[CrazyC83]

I would go with 110 kt for the intensity based on that data.

[weeniepatrol]

947mb extrap

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fiona is rapidly intensifying. Will she reach cat 5?
Unlikely imho but one can dream.

[weeniepatrol]

[tolakram]

saved loop

[ThetaE]

Dropsonde got 952mb with 10kt winds, supports a drop from 953mb to 951mb in about an hour.