ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Buck]

2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 20
Location: 22.3°N 71.7°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[underthwx]

I just read that 80% of Puerto Rico is without power, I hope all is well with you Luis, other than the situation with the power....I hope for a speedy return to normalcy for you and everyone affected by the cyclone bro....

[CrazyC83]

I am guessing Bermuda will be going under a Hurricane Watch soon, perhaps at the 5 pm advisory. Even though it has trended a bit west, it will be too close to call.

And I think this could be one of the strongest to ever hit Canada. The record is Hurricane Ginny, with a 948 mb pressure and 105 mph winds. (Juan in 2003 had similar winds, but much higher pressure - that was a unique storm that was still very tropical when it made it there.)

[TallyTracker]

With the shear still impacting Fiona, I am very skeptical of the higher end intensity solutions. Typically high-end Cat 4s and Cat 5s need near perfect conditions to get strong. The only way I see that happening is if Fiona lines up with the shear vector which I’m not expecting to happen to such an extent to allow higher than 140-145 tops.

[Yankee Corn Husker]

Maintaining it at 100 kts is probably the right call for now. The pressure is now catching up to the wind speed.

I thought it was wind speed that caught up with the pressure drop, not the other way around?

[Yankee Corn Husker]

I am guessing Bermuda will be going under a Hurricane Watch soon, perhaps at the 5 pm advisory. Even though it has trended a bit west, it will be too close to call.

And I think this could be one of the strongest to ever hit Canada. The record is Hurricane Ginny, with a 948 mb pressure and 105 mph winds. (Juan in 2003 had similar winds, but much higher pressure - that was a unique storm that was still very tropical when it made it there.)

Any chance of Fiona busting down to 930 mb along it's trek northward?

[Iceresistance]

Both Recon planes are done, when is the next one coming back?

[aspen]

With the shear still impacting Fiona, I am very skeptical of the higher end intensity solutions. Typically high-end Cat 4s and Cat 5s need near perfect conditions to get strong. The only way I see that happening is if Fiona lines up with the shear vector which I’m not expecting to happen to such an extent to allow higher than 140-145 tops.

Shear hasn’t been much of an issue, it’s an EWRC that put Fiona on pause today. But I agree that 140-145 mph is probably around where it’ll end up at the most.

[skyline385]

Maintaining it at 100 kts is probably the right call for now. The pressure is now catching up to the wind speed.

I thought it was wind speed that caught up with the pressure drop, not the other way around?

Small cores typically have winds running ahead of the pressure drop, Delta was an extreme example of this with 120 kts @ 953mb.


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[skyline385]

Looking so good right now




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[CrazyC83]

I am guessing Bermuda will be going under a Hurricane Watch soon, perhaps at the 5 pm advisory. Even though it has trended a bit west, it will be too close to call.

And I think this could be one of the strongest to ever hit Canada. The record is Hurricane Ginny, with a 948 mb pressure and 105 mph winds. (Juan in 2003 had similar winds, but much higher pressure - that was a unique storm that was still very tropical when it made it there.)

Any chance of Fiona busting down to 930 mb along it's trek northward?

I honestly think it's reasonable, since there will be a strong trough interaction and it may already be in the 940s at the time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye is really starting to clear out now. If trend continues might see a stadium effect.

[CrazyC83]

The eye is really starting to clear out now. If trend continues might see a stadium effect.

I'd conservatively go with 105 kt for the advisory (pressure 955 mb) as we wait for more Recon.

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

The shear that was hitting it last night has clearly dropped off now. The outflow is expanding rapidly west now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeesh, -75C temps about to complete a full ring around the eye. I wonder if we are going to have a cat 4 by the time the next recon gets there

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3277/Rs08Uj.gif

That outer band with all the lightning might be Fiona’s next problem. It could be strong enough to compete/mess with the core and once again halt its intensification.

[tolakram]

200 frame loop Imgur ignores the 1 second pause on the last frame, which is annoying.

Shorter GIF version

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3277/Rs08Uj.gif

That outer band with all the lightning might be Fiona’s next problem. It could be strong enough to compete/mess with the core and once again halt its intensification.

maybe it would be an issue for a weaker storm, but its not going to be anywhere near strong enough to compete with the Core of a major hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3277/Rs08Uj.gif

That outer band with all the lightning might be Fiona’s next problem. It could be strong enough to compete/mess with the core and once again halt its intensification.

maybe it would be an issue for a weaker storm, but its not going to be anywhere near strong enough to compete with the Core of a major hurricane.

Yeah I agree, I was watching that earlier, but it looks like its slowly being pulled into the core. Speaking of the core, cloud tops continuing to cool at a good clip. I imagine raw T's must be skyrocketing right now.