Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#201 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:58 pm

240 hours. Heading for the North central Gulf coast :eek:
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#202 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:59 pm

End of run, 949 mb

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#203 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:00 pm

Break in the ridge around 228 hours causing the turn

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#204 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:03 pm

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#205 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:05 pm

That is too close for many people.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#206 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:05 pm

12Z Euro caught whatever virus the 12Z GFS has. Major hurricane to NE Gulf coast 10 days.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#207 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:06 pm

Per 12Z Euro 240, it is aiming for the FL Panhandle 9/29-30 as a MH. 3rd year cold ENSO analogs say to watch the FL Gulf coast due to it being the highest at risk.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#208 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:09 pm

Every model is onboard now it looks like, CMC is kind of an outlier that the ridging on it is so strong that it crashes into CA but CMC clearly has a problem with overdoing ridges as we saw on Fiona. It will eventually correct itself.


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#209 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:10 pm

Anyone from the US east coast to Texas need to watch this carefully as I believe this could be the system of the year even outdoing Fiona as far as potential and the highest heat potential is in the western Caribbean

Currently this system is organizing and is pulsing convection which organizing systems often do and most models develop a depression or storm between 3 and 5 days
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#210 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:11 pm

Well - board is hoppin' now
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#211 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:11 pm

toad strangler wrote:That is too close for many people.


Yeah, and my Birthday is the 30th. What a wonderful present this would be..NOT Hoping this doesn't happen.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#212 Postby lsuhurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:14 pm

Massive EPS signal btw Cuba and Yucatan at days 7 and 8
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#213 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:17 pm

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12z ECMWF… This one has to be watched IMO
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#214 Postby HoustonFrog » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:18 pm

There's only one more thing needed here....
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#215 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:21 pm

EPS is lit

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#216 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:22 pm

57 isn’t buying the models yet.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#217 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:24 pm

IcyTundra wrote:57 isn’t buying the models yet.


I think that was his subtle sarcasm, as in maybe it's real this time with the GFS.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#218 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:26 pm

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#219 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:28 pm

The Gulf has been untouched. Temps will be nearing 100 degrees again this week and will add to the already boiling Gulf waters. This might be the big one this year.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#220 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:31 pm

skyline385 wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220919/d5e8998f104bc553a20e4f7b11d2b1a0.jpg


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Lol, shields up Florida! Jokes aside this could be trouble for many people.
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