ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure is down to 985.4mb on this center pass from NOAA2. With this pressure drop, the ~70 kt FL winds, and 60-65 kt SFMR, there’s pretty good evidence that Fiona is now a hurricane.

FL winds are now up to 79 knots. She's likely a hurricane already.

[NDG]

Take note that recon just passed by St. Croix and reported 40kt SFMR. St. Croix has not reported a wind above 20 kts all evening. I've never trusted SFMR winds. They calibrate the instrument in clear air. Looking like cycloneye in San Juan won't even see any TS sustained wind. Lots of rain possible tomorrow, though, and even moderate TS winds will knock most of the power out.

Here in San Juan we have had sustained TS winds.

That's not what the official observations at the airport indicate. I see a gust to 49 kts though. I'm not sure if the airport would report a special between hourly obs to report higher sustained wind.

TJSJ 181256Z 09020G33KT 4SM -RA BR SCT023 SCT080 OVC110 25/23 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 09049/1235 SLP091 T02500233 PNO
TJSJ 181156Z 09018G29KT 4SM -RA BR SCT028 SCT050 BKN075 26/24 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 09029/1150 SLP084 6//// 7//// T02560244 10278 20244 58001 PNO
TJSJ 181056Z 08021G30KT 4SM -RA BR SCT028 BKN050 BKN075 26/24 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 08030/1053 SLP088 T02560239 PNO

Airports do that all the time during inclement weather. Look at the link below, this is from the NWS, official report from the San Juan airport. You will see the 55 mph wind gust from an hour ago.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries? ... J&hours=72

[NDG]

Extrapolated pressure is down to 985.4mb on this center pass from NOAA2. With this pressure drop, the ~70 kt FL winds, and 60-65 kt SFMR, there’s pretty good evidence that Fiona is now a hurricane.

FL winds are now up to 79 knots. She's likely a hurricane already.

Yes, most likely a hurricane now, that eastern eyewall is getting stronger, doppler indicating as high as 90 knots at higher heights.

[hipshot]

Extrapolated pressure is down to 985.4mb on this center pass from NOAA2. With this pressure drop, the ~70 kt FL winds, and 60-65 kt SFMR, there’s pretty good evidence that Fiona is now a hurricane.

FL winds are now up to 79 knots. She's likely a hurricane already.

Yes, most likely a hurricane now, that eastern eyewall is getting stronger, doppler indicating as high as 90 knots at higher heights.

It seems to me that Fiona is still traveling west for the most part. How sure are we that it is going to make a right turn soon, as in the next
day or so?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Iceresistance]

NOAA2's 4th VDM has 985 MB, that is a huge drop compared to the previous VDM at 991 MB.

[pgoss11]

FL winds are now up to 79 knots. She's likely a hurricane already.

Yes, most likely a hurricane now, that eastern eyewall is getting stronger, doppler indicating as high as 90 knots at higher heights.

It seems to me that Fiona is still traveling west for the most part. How sure are we that it is going to make a right turn soon, as in the next
day or so?

NHC is expecting a turn to the NW later today

[ThetaE]

NOAA2's 4th VDM has 985 MB, that is a huge drop compared to the previous VDM at 991 MB.

That's weird, considering they got a dropsonde with 8kt winds and 991mb. I wonder why they used extrapolated instead of that.

[IsabelaWeather]

FL winds are now up to 79 knots. She's likely a hurricane already.

Yes, most likely a hurricane now, that eastern eyewall is getting stronger, doppler indicating as high as 90 knots at higher heights.

It seems to me that Fiona is still traveling west for the most part. How sure are we that it is going to make a right turn soon, as in the next
day or so?

Its average motion is still WNW, its been wobbling a bit, some a bit more north, then a bit more west.

[ronjon]

Center is tightening up. Convective burst this morning. That northern and eastern band around the center is starting to form an eyewall. Combine with 6 mb pressure drop and Fiona probably a CAT 1 hurricane now.

[NDG]

Fiona definitely looks like a Hurricane now on satellite.

[NDG]

Radar from PR hasn't updated in 20 minutes, hope is not down already.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is the San Juan radar out?

[NDG]

Is the San Juan radar out?

Looks like it, too bad.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the center jumped a bit north on this last pass

[NDG]

NOAA recon latest pass shows pressure maybe down another mb. Didn't sampled the NE quadrant which seems to be the strongest.
AF recon is sampling that quadrant but stopped reporting.

142100 1719N 06628W 7505 02418 9845 +215 +118 014017 021 /// /// 03

[IsabelaWeather]

Radar from PR hasn't updated in 20 minutes, hope is not down already.

This is so frustrating! We need one on the west side.

[ScottNAtlanta]

NOAA recon latest pass shows pressure maybe down another mb. Didn't sampled the NE quadrant which seems to be the strongest.
AF recon is sampling that quadrant but stopped reporting.

142100 1719N 06628W 7505 02418 9845 +215 +118 014017 021 /// /// 03

FYI...there are 2 planes currently in Fiona. Mission 10 went around the center and got that 984. Mission 11 just went through recently and got 985

[IsabelaWeather]

Im getting gusts to about 50mph now, highest on my PWS was 46 but its a bit obstructed to the E

[hiflyer]

The northside is still up TSJU but is lower down and blocked by the mountains from seeing south.


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