ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Still continues to improve its structure and you see the WSW jog dip clearly on satellite



 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1571076559141998593





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[Nimbus]

Pressure gradient sharpening up and started taking the plunge near 15N.
Wonder what the models will do with that?
Terrible flooding threat further west and it could deepen into a hurricane with lighter shear.

[NDG]

My eye when I looked at models this morning
I hope the GFS and HWRF are just showing their usual right biased track, Puerto Rico doesn't need a strengthening hurricane to track over the island as both models show.

[Blown Away]

Wow, Fiona grew overnight! Can’t tell if it’s convection contraction or the she is moving S of W?

[NDG]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5tyYqP2Y/goes16-ir-07-L-202209170825.gif [/url]

Wow, Fiona grew overnight! Can’t tell if it’s convection contraction or the she is moving S of W?

That's mainly the down shear still pushing the convection south but it indeed moved WSW during the night by the recon's fix this morning, it might be trying to reform closer to the MLC this morning because pressure if anything has gone up this morning after falling last night.

[NDG]

What in the world is going on with Fiona this morning?

[Hammy]

What in the world is going on with Fiona this morning?

https://i.imgur.com/vl5NJFI.png

Seems like significant disruption to the inner core from either the shear, convection, Guadeloupe, or all of the above. Something similar happened with Isaac in 2012 and it never really recovered.

This year is destined to blow every opportunity it has at producing a major hurricane

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5tyYqP2Y/goes16-ir-07-L-202209170825.gif [/url]

Wow, Fiona grew overnight! Can’t tell if it’s convection contraction or the she is moving S of W?

I'm like that too! I just woke up!

I'm thinking that the Pressure is higher because Fiona now has competing centers, but Fiona is now at an advantage because, with the center reformations, she can now stack up. She may RI, but I'm giving her a low chance right now due to multiple centers. But as soon as she has one LLC, the chances of her RI'ing will increase.

[NDG]

What in the world is going on with Fiona this morning?

https://i.imgur.com/vl5NJFI.png

Seems like significant disruption to the inner core from either the shear, convection, Guadeloupe, or all of the above. Something similar happened with Isaac in 2012 and it never really recovered.

This year is destined to blow every opportunity it has at producing a major hurricane

Yep, at least multiple centers, still has ways to get better organized.
The good news for Puerto Rico is that the latest 06z aggressive HWRF this morning can be thrown out the window.

[aspen]

The new center might now be around 15.3N/63.3W, but whatever it is, it’s weak. Kinda reminds me of Elsa when it was in a similar location.

This might make or break Fiona for the rest of its life. If the blossoming convection helps this center reformation complete, then the ceiling is high. If it fails, then the ceiling is a lot lower. Heavy rain is going to be a huge issue for the islands regardless.

[Keldeo1997]

What in the world is going on with Fiona this morning?

https://i.imgur.com/vl5NJFI.png

Seems like significant disruption to the inner core from either the shear, convection, Guadeloupe, or all of the above. Something similar happened with Isaac in 2012 and it never really recovered.

This year is destined to blow every opportunity it has at producing a major hurricane

Yep, at least multiple centers, still has ways to get better organized.
The good news for Puerto Rico is that the latest 06z aggressive HWRF this morning can be thrown out the window.

You can throw all the models at the window if it continues this SW track

[Blown Away]

5am 16.4/63.3 and moved @30 miles W since, once visible loop is available that area should be somewhat void of convection and maybe we see a weak circulation? COC Sure does appear a good degree S of that forecast track and not moving W at 13.

[NDG]

Seems like significant disruption to the inner core from either the shear, convection, Guadeloupe, or all of the above. Something similar happened with Isaac in 2012 and it never really recovered.

This year is destined to blow every opportunity it has at producing a major hurricane

Yep, at least multiple centers, still has ways to get better organized.
The good news for Puerto Rico is that the latest 06z aggressive HWRF this morning can be thrown out the window.

You can throw all the models at the window if it continues this SW track

Future track is still a good bet, the weakness is still coming down.

[NDG]

Then comes the AF recon and fixes a center further north, the nice LLC it had last night fell apart, but it still has a closed circulation, but broad with multiple centers.

[ColdMiser123]

Then comes the AF recon and fixes a center further north, the nice LLC it had last night fell apart, but it still has a closed circulation, but broad with multiple centers.

https://i.imgur.com/HqEVDz1.png

AF is flying at ~850 mb, NOAA2 is flying at ~700 mb, appears from recon that at least one of the 700 mb centers is about a degree latitude south of the 850 mb center AF just found at ~16.1 degrees N.

Evidence that this is still a significantly tilted system, which is also likely the reason why recon hasn't found anything overly impressive, despite all the convection currently.

[Blown Away]

8am 16.1N/63.4W

Little S and E of 5am track if you factor it’s moving W at 13.

[Iceresistance]

Then comes the AF recon and fixes a center further north, the nice LLC it had last night fell apart, but it still has a closed circulation, but broad with multiple centers.

https://i.imgur.com/HqEVDz1.png

Well, she probably needs that if she is going to survive the Shredder. Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Dominican Republic per Advisory 12A.

[REDHurricane]

Could Fiona's ongoing strengthening and attempt to reform to the south have anything to do with its position just to the south of the TUTT shearing apart the northern side and sort of pushing the rest of the storm to the SW? If Fiona had tracked further north, it might have gotten shredded apart by the shear over the past few days, and if it had tracked further south it would be probably be a hurricane by now -- maybe it's traveling through that weird middle ground where one tiny random shift in one direction can be the difference between momentary strengthening and momentary weakening.

[wxman57]

Curious that none of the northern Lesser Antilles reported any sustained wind over 30 kts overnight. Guadeloupe (TFFF) reported 30kts gusting 50kts at 06Z, but 20 kts or less after that report. You can use the link below and go back to yesterday, or you can type in a stations 4-letter ICAO and check the obs over the past 24 hrs or more.

https://aviationweather.gov/metar

[aspen]

Despite Fiona’s problems this morning, I find it hard to believe that it won’t consolidate again sometime today. Where exactly the LLC consolidates could have major implications down the line. If it’s far enough S or SW, then Fiona could be headed straight for the highest mountains of Hispaniola. If it’s closer to 16N, then it might not change the track much at all.