ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Fiona is starting to look increasingly dangerous over there. Hurricane is within the realm of possibility tomorrow if she keeps this up.

I sense that the 5 am advisory will include Hurricane Warnings for parts of Hispaniola and maybe Puerto Rico, depending on the forecast track. Lots of lightning in the core too.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure if the satellite provides a clue, but I am seeing the center near 16.0N 62.9W on the latest imagery. If that is the actual center, that is like a full degree off the forecast from 12 hours ago.

[Sciencerocks]

[Stormybajan]

Im not sure what Guadeloupe or Dominica did to anger Fiona but shes RAGING RIGHT NOW!! ...Fiona reminds me so much of Tropical Storm Erika in 2015 how it was sheared badly but then found a sweet spot and dumped TONS AND TONS of rain over Dominica! Only this time Fiona is looking like Erika's big sis! The amount of rainfall Guadeloupe has been and will continue to get is scary. The video later today might be very telling.

[hurricanes1234]

Im not sure what Guadeloupe or Dominica did to anger Fiona but shes RAGING RIGHT NOW!! ...Fiona reminds me so much of Tropical Storm Erika in 2015 how it was sheared badly but then found a sweet spot and dumped TONS AND TONS of rain over Dominica! Only this time Fiona is looking like Erika's big sis! The amount of rainfall Guadeloupe has been and will continue to get is scary. The video later today might be very telling.
https://i.postimg.cc/J79XKx84/ezgif-com-gif-maker.gif

Yup I was looking at that as well, Guadeloupe has been under minus 80 to 90 degree cloudtops for hours now. I can't imagine what the rainfall accumulations must be looking like. Godspeed to them.

[Chemmers]

Looking healthy this morning, think they might issue hurricane warning in there next advisory

[Landy]

Im not sure what Guadeloupe or Dominica did to anger Fiona but shes RAGING RIGHT NOW!! ...Fiona reminds me so much of Tropical Storm Erika in 2015 how it was sheared badly but then found a sweet spot and dumped TONS AND TONS of rain over Dominica! Only this time Fiona is looking like Erika's big sis! The amount of rainfall Guadeloupe has been and will continue to get is scary. The video later today might be very telling.

Already videos of flooding in Guadeloupe circulating... Heartbreaking.
 https://twitter.com/Godly_OJ/status/1571047104545689607

[weeniepatrol]

Hello? Is there anybody out there?

[Stormybajan]

Im not sure what Guadeloupe or Dominica did to anger Fiona but shes RAGING RIGHT NOW!! ...Fiona reminds me so much of Tropical Storm Erika in 2015 how it was sheared badly but then found a sweet spot and dumped TONS AND TONS of rain over Dominica! Only this time Fiona is looking like Erika's big sis! The amount of rainfall Guadeloupe has been and will continue to get is scary. The video later today might be very telling.

Already videos of flooding in Guadeloupe circulating... Heartbreaking.
https://twitter.com/Godly_OJ/status/1571047104545689607?t=wlAp0GmoK9gLVl5JZkg6Eg&s=19

At this point if the rain doesnt end soon, this will be a major disaster, sigh!! I suspect as the day goes on more footage like this will be recorded...hoping for no injuries!
 https://twitter.com/jahwellb/status/1571042534461411328

[kevin]

Wow that's probably the most impressive convective burst I've seen in the Atlantic so far this season (which isn't saying much, but still). Very cool to see on IR, but I feel really bad for Guadalupe and the other islands currently below her. The rain totals over there for probably be insane. Godspeed to them. If Fiona can sustain this I agree that hurricane watches might have to be issued soon. Luckily recon is on its way so we'll know what the current state of Fiona is soon. If it's really intensifying beyond what most global models showed it will probably result in even more windshield wiping in the upcoming model cycles.

[Landy]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1571048527261990912

[Landy]

Latest advisory has hurricane watches up for Puerto Rico, hurricane landfall expected in Dominican Republic... I think it's safe to say the situation has escalated more than some may have anticipated. Stay safe friends.

[REDHurricane]

It appears that a new mid-level vorticity center is forming during this convective burst -- maybe that's what could be causing this noticeable shift to the south in the past few hours?

[kevin]

Still not 100% convincing since the pressure is 'only' 1002 mb, but based on the wind measurements it seems recon has found Fiona's center during the first pass... at 15.57N. Almost a whole degree further south than the current NHC position . If this is indeed the case it could have large consequences for the track down the road.

[caneman]

It appears that a new mid-level vorticity center is forming during this convective burst -- maybe that's what could be causing this noticeable shift to the south in the past few hours?

https://media.giphy.com/media/8YucRvhRES73a50aIp/giphy.gif

https://media.giphy.com/media/Wv5etBi1gCK1WtJFop/giphy.gif

Indeed. NHC also mentioned it was more Southerly and watching an 8 hour water vapor loop you can clearly see the convection build more Southerly. Will models adjust more westerly with this??? We will see. 50 miles further south could be a 200 mile error down the line but I've also seen it not change things at all.

[aspen]

Still not 100% convincing since the pressure is 'only' 1002 mb, but based on the wind measurements it seems recon has found Fiona's center during the first pass... at 15.57N. Almost a whole degree further south than the current NHC position . If this is indeed the case it could have large consequences for the track down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/2J3Lmxv.png

Fiona could also get stronger faster if it successfully pulls off this center reformation. That new center is smack in the middle of its convection and possibly stacked with the MLC now, but we’ll need another pass to make sure.

A second AF plane is on its way to Fiona.

[kevin]

Recon measured 59 kt SFMR east of Fiona's center. FL winds are a bit lower though at 45 kt.

[kevin]

Still not 100% convincing since the pressure is 'only' 1002 mb, but based on the wind measurements it seems recon has found Fiona's center during the first pass... at 15.57N. Almost a whole degree further south than the current NHC position . If this is indeed the case it could have large consequences for the track down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/2J3Lmxv.png

Fiona could also get stronger faster if it successfully pulls off this center reformation. That new center is smack in the middle of its convection and possibly stacked with the MLC now, but we’ll need another pass to make sure.

A second AF plane is on its way to Fiona.

Also, shear is significantly lower the further south Fiona goes. In these cases, especially early on during the development of a TC, every fraction of a degree counts.

[Keldeo1997]

Might be something else here.

[REDHurricane]

Still not 100% convincing since the pressure is 'only' 1002 mb, but based on the wind measurements it seems recon has found Fiona's center during the first pass... at 15.57N. Almost a whole degree further south than the current NHC position . If this is indeed the case it could have large consequences for the track down the road.

https://i.imgur.com/2J3Lmxv.png

Fiona could also get stronger faster if it successfully pulls off this center reformation. That new center is smack in the middle of its convection and possibly stacked with the MLC now, but we’ll need another pass to make sure.

A second AF plane is on its way to Fiona.

Also, shear is significantly lower the further south Fiona goes. In these cases, especially early on during the development of a TC, every fraction of a degree counts.

https://i.imgur.com/Sl63Wyf.gif

Yep, this could be the worst-case, double whammy scenario where Fiona manages to both strengthen quickly AND track further to the south/west than predicted. These upcoming 12z model runs are going to be more interesting than any football game today and I am ready for it