ATL: FIONA - Models

[aspen]

Models starting to look fishy. Bet on it.

I’m definitely not calling it a fish yet. Not only is there a decent chance of this impacting the western Bahamas as a strengthening hurricane, but it’s still rather close to the CONUS. Slight changes in the UL pattern in the 5-8 day range could make a world of a difference.

[NDG]

When even the model (CMC) which was on the western of the model envelope keeps trending to the right you know that Fiona's future track is no threat to the US is more and more likely.
I think any tropical threat for the rest of the hurricane season to the eastern US will have to come from the NW Caribbean or GOM.

[Torgo]

Models starting to look fishy. Bet on it.

Do you see those little islands to the left of Fiona? People live there. Not just fish, but people. People also live in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Bahamas, and Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

Looks like East Coast shield wins again

[Hypercane_Kyle]

"Betting" on anything with a moderate tropical storm predicted to directly go over Hispaniola seems incredibly unwise to me.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models starting to look fishy. Bet on it.

Do you see those little islands to the left of Fiona? People live there. Not just fish, but people. People also live in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Bahamas, and Bermuda.

We all know I was referring to the US. I certainly am not implying people do not live out there. For us in the US, it is looking fishy. Thanks.

[Pelicane]

Euro looks slightly east of 06z.

[Blown Away]

Euro looks slightly east of 06z.

12z ECMWF, at 72 hrs and basically same position per the 12z yesterday’s run. ECMWF from the start continues showing convection on the N and E side of LLC and that is not the case.

[Pelicane]

Euro looks slightly east of 06z.

12z ECMWF, at 72 hrs and basically same position per the 12z yesterday’s run. ECMWF from the start continues showing convection on the N and E side of LLC and that is not the case.

So far it looks the same as 0z, just a little stronger.

[sma10]

"Betting" on anything with a moderate tropical storm predicted to directly go over Hispaniola seems incredibly unwise to me.

IKR? Well, I guess we'll see. Maybe modeling has improved so much that it's good enough to project how the center will pinball thru the island

[skyline385]

12Z Euro OTS at 180 hours as well, all models seem to be agreeing on a recurve now.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like East Coast shield wins again

We had Tropical Storm conditions a couple of times yesterday into last night, does that count towards hurricane season?

[BobHarlem]

12Z Euro goes through the eastern Bahamas then starts to recurve, it may take it over Bermuda this time, but stays away from the US mainland.

[Pelicane]

12Z Euro OTS at 180 hours as well, all models seem to be agreeing on a recurve now.

If you look at the CONUS height maps you can see how the ridge keeps getting shoved more and more west on each run. It's also slightly weaker every time.

[chris_fit]

Very Interesting that GFS seems to be doing better at the longer terms trends in sniffing out recurves this season.

2nd straight up submission by the EURO. Impressive, GFS, Not to shabby (but far from perfect)

[skyline385]

12Z Euro OTS at 180 hours as well, all models seem to be agreeing on a recurve now.

If you look at the CONUS height maps you can see how the ridge keeps getting shoved more and more west on each run. It's also slightly weaker every time.

Sure but the shortwave gets stronger every run too

[skyline385]

Very Interesting that GFS seems to be doing better at the longer terms trends in sniffing out recurves this season.

2nd straight up submission by the EURO. Impressive, GFS, Not to shabby (but far from perfect)

GFS was also the first one to sniff out a weak Fiona south of PR early as well, back when all the other models had a strong system recurving above the LA.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro OTS at 180 hours as well, all models seem to be agreeing on a recurve now.

For all practical purposes, you're right and that's easily the best bet right now. But technically, this isn't 100% true. Check out what the slower 12Z JMA does from 168 to 192, when it gets blocked and turns west at least for a short time from a new high to its north. Also, fwiw, many of the 12Z CMC ensemble members hit the CONUS (2 in NE US, handful FL, and good number Gulf coast). Neither the JMA nor the GEPS is considered to be high quality vs the more credible Euro, GFS, and UKMET, of course. But I thought it was worth mentioning.

[SFLcane]

Looks like East Coast shield wins again

We had Tropical Storm conditions a couple of times yesterday into last night, does that count towards hurricane season?

Lol! I guess... I recorded a few gusts top 60mph with my weather station a few months ago up here in lake worth so there is my hurricane season.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm also not so sure how the modeling is handling the former Typhoon that is barreling into Alaska as quite an intense storm. That's going to send ripples down the jet stream and could displace ridging