ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Cone shifted west into DR now

[Sciencerocks]

[SconnieCane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2729/lnflWW.gif

Looks like a naked swirl with the convection barely moving or even drifting SSW. Tough road the next few days but if it survives all bets are off. Still, speaks to what a whiff the seasonal forecasts were that this is the best the Atl can do for a TC at this location on September 15th.

[Category5Kaiju]

Umm...

[Sciencerocks]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2729/lnflWW.gif

Looks like a naked swirl with the convection barely moving or even drifting SSW. Tough road the next few days but if it survives all bets are off. Still, speaks to what a whiff the seasonal forecasts were that this is the best the Atl can do for a TC at this location on September 15th.

Reminds me of 2009 in this area with erika and heri. Both sheared messes. Very unfavorable.





Heri

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/GXi6hbA.png

Umm...

I think this is more of a problem

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/GXi6hbA.png

Umm...

If there's one thing I've been told repeatedly over the last 15 years, it's that shear now doesn't mean shear later, not even in the short term. I think it's supposed to lessen too.

[sunnyday]

So I just read that Fiona is expected to turn north between the Turks and Caicos or in the Bahamas next week. Is that a definite? I thought the oath was still uncertain.

[LemieT]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2729/lnflWW.gif

Looks like a naked swirl with the convection barely moving or even drifting SSW. Tough road the next few days but if it survives all bets are off. Still, speaks to what a whiff the seasonal forecasts were that this is the best the Atl can do for a TC at this location on September 15th.

Reminds me of 2009 in this area with erika and heri. Both sheared messes. Very unfavorable.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7605/8As8Pg.gif

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5546/7HB59y.jpg

Heri
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/277/tWfwwd.gif

Add Danny and Erika in 2015 and that basically sums Fiona up right now.

[ouragans]

Fiona has been moving a tad S of due W, from 16.6N to 15.8N for the last 12 hours. This is the kind of unpredictable track. This TS could miss the Leeward and hit Dominica or Martinique...

Is there any explanation to this, except that it's a sheared system?

[Nimbus]

Fiona has been moving a tad S of due W, from 16.6N to 15.8N for the last 12 hours. This is the kind of unpredictable track. This TS could miss the Leeward and hit Dominica or Martinique...

Is there any explanation to this, except that it's a sheared system?

The shallow layer steering is different than the deep layer steering that a stronger storm would be guided by.
Might be getting too far south for a track through or near the Mona passage and PR will be on the strong side of the circulation. Weak systems sometimes survive passage over Hispaniola since the redirected circulation from the mountains still leaves the pressure gradient intact.

I'm a little disappointed this didn't just spin up and track OTS early but the islands are getting their advisories and Fiona is pretty weak ATM.

[Hammy]

SFMR is up about 10kts from the earlier mission, large area of ~45kt winds

102930 1602N 05801W 6950 03187 0023 +121 +135 125019 020 040 003 01
103000 1603N 05800W 6949 03190 0024 +120 +133 122023 025 040 002 01
103030 1604N 05758W 6948 03195 0026 +120 +140 132025 027 040 005 01
103100 1605N 05756W 6954 03184 0027 +119 +135 121028 030 036 002 01
103130 1606N 05754W 6955 03188 0024 +122 +131 113029 032 039 003 01
103200 1607N 05752W 6952 03190 0029 +120 +132 121030 032 043 004 01
103230 1608N 05751W 6949 03195 0033 +118 +135 124030 032 043 004 01
103300 1609N 05749W 6958 03188 0033 +119 +126 120029 032 042 003 01
103330 1610N 05747W 6952 03195 0033 +120 +120 118029 030 040 001 01
103400 1611N 05745W 6945 03206 0037 +119 +124 131029 030 043 000 01
103430 1612N 05743W 6953 03195 0039 +118 +122 140027 030 043 000 01
103500 1613N 05742W 6948 03202 0043 +116 +119 135029 031 046 001 01
103530 1614N 05740W 6951 03200 0046 +114 +126 137031 033 044 001 01
103600 1615N 05738W 6948 03204 0051 +111 +126 135032 034 044 000 01
103630 1616N 05736W 6959 03192 0053 +111 +124 132030 031 044 001 01
103700 1617N 05734W 6953 03196 0056 +108 +120 130028 030 043 001 01
103730 1618N 05733W 6953 03196 0056 +108 +122 128022 025 043 001 01
103800 1619N 05731W 6948 03204 0050 +112 +116 127019 021 044 001 01
103830 1620N 05729W 6950 03202 0049 +114 +109 141019 020 043 000 00
103900 1621N 05727W 6947 03208 0060 +107 +108 139023 026 043 001 01
103930 1622N 05725W 6948 03206 0058 +109 +107 132030 032 041 001 01
104000 1623N 05723W 6948 03208 0060 +108 +108 131028 031 042 000 01
104030 1624N 05722W 6948 03210 0058 +111 +102 124027 028 040 001 00
104100 1625N 05720W 6948 03209 0060 +110 +099 119030 031 039 001 00
104130 1626N 05718W 6948 03210 0063 +107 +104 121032 033 038 001 00
104200 1627N 05716W 6949 03211 0065 +107 +102 125030 033 039 000 00
104230 1628N 05715W 6948 03212 0066 +108 +102 124029 031 039 000 00
104300 1629N 05713W 6948 03212 0067 +107 +102 126029 031 036 001 00
104330 1630N 05711W 6948 03213 0071 +104 +103 122027 029 038 001 00
104400 1631N 05709W 6948 03214 0075 +102 +101 117026 026 039 002 00

[toad strangler]

Looks like a naked swirl with the convection barely moving or even drifting SSW. Tough road the next few days but if it survives all bets are off. Still, speaks to what a whiff the seasonal forecasts were that this is the best the Atl can do for a TC at this location on September 15th.

Reminds me of 2009 in this area with erika and heri. Both sheared messes. Very unfavorable.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7605/8As8Pg.gif

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5546/7HB59y.jpg

Heri
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/277/tWfwwd.gif

Add Danny and Erika in 2015 and that basically sums Fiona up right now.

It's the late innings that will ultimately make or break Fiona! Right now its bottom of the 4th.

[Blown Away]

12H 16/1800Z 15.9N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

Appears Fiona is picking up speed, 5am says Fiona should cross 60W at 1800z (1pm EST, I think?) and I say she crosses earlier than that at this pace.

[BobHarlem]

Fiona's starting to show up on Barbados radar https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 2687585865

But it's difficult to see enough of it currently to spy the center

[NDG]

I say that chances of a FL threat from Fiona has gone down this morning, models have trended to a stronger shortwave to pass through NE US days 6-8 and erode the Bermuda ridge with the south central ridge in the US staying in place if anything move right over Texas.

In the meantime hope people in the Leeward Islands, PR & DR are ready for TS Friona which seems to be wanting to get better stacked this morning.

[SoupBone]

This thread got awfully quiet.

[Category5Kaiju]

This thread got awfully quiet.

Watch as Fiona does unexpected and then gets awfully close to Florida. This thread will then blow up like a nuclear bomb

[BobHarlem]

This thread got awfully quiet.

Fiona looks to be a rain threat for the islands, flooding potential in PR and HIspaniola. But for everyone else it's wait and see until it clears the Caribbean islands. I'm nearly sure the models will flip flop between runs again today things with the forward speed and strength are just way too marginal right now to really bet on any one model, most models have been too far north for where Fiona is right now (even the 6z models have the current position too far north). And if you go back to Tuesday the GFS didn't even have it at all. The amount of ridge weakness that would turn it north will vary from run to run, so you get flip flops. I do hope the current recuve favor holds, but I don't necessarily think it will. Too much chaos in the modeling at the moment.

[AutoPenalti]

I've realized this is still 7-8 days out. So it can flip flop.