ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Fiona lost 0.3 degrees of latitude the last 6 hours.

Every mile matters now and in the future

I think we are one advisory away from buying into the weaker system goes farther west. I can understand the modeling is so overwhelming that it’s going to strengthen and go north, but that doesn’t appear to be happening.

[jlauderdal]

Fiona lost 0.3 degrees of latitude the last 6 hours.

Every mile matters now and in the future

I think we are one advisory away from buying into the weaker system goes farther west. I can understand the modeling is so overwhelming that it’s going to strengthen and go north, but that doesn’t appear to be happening.

One more euro run of this and nhc will be on the left of consensus. NHC going against consensus is unusual.

[Iceresistance]

Convective burst closer to the CoC, Fiona will not accept becoming a TW.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Every mile matters now and in the future

I think we are one advisory away from buying into the weaker system goes farther west. I can understand the modeling is so overwhelming that it’s going to strengthen and go north, but that doesn’t appear to be happening.

One more euro run of this and nhc will be on the left of consensus. NHC going against consensus is unusual.

I'd place my bet on NHC over the models when it comes to track

[Visioen]

Fiona is so naked I almost feel ashamed watching her.

[tiger_deF]

Fiona is certainly a fighter, and I think that everyone from the lesser Antilles to Florida/EC should be monitoring her. Despite unseasonable mid-level dryness, a prior complete lack of activity in the MDR, and stubborn westerly shear that has practically decoupled the LLC from the convection for over a day, she's still chugging along and producing the most intense convection of any tropical storm to date. If it survives interaction with PR/Hispaniola, and upper level conditions remain favorable as modelled, I think we have a shot at our first (and maybe only) major hurricane of the season.

[Iceresistance]

Recon has finished the first mission.

The really interesting part is that they found 65 knot FL winds in the NE quadrant of the swirl.

[ScottNAtlanta]

On satellite it looks like the big blob convection is moving clockwise to the center. That might be an optical illusion but it sure looks like it is. I don't think you can have easterly northwesterly shear

[Keldeo1997]

Should point this out that the Eastern part of the Shredder is not to bad compared to the rest of the island.

[Iceresistance]

Ryan Maue's silly suggestion to keep Fiona from trending even more west.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1570543708105486337

[jlauderdal]

I think we are one advisory away from buying into the weaker system goes farther west. I can understand the modeling is so overwhelming that it’s going to strengthen and go north, but that doesn’t appear to be happening.

One more euro run of this and nhc will be on the left of consensus. NHC going against consensus is unusual.

I'd place my bet on NHC over the models when it comes to track

Absolutely, nhc is great on track.

[Blown Away]

One more euro run of this and nhc will be on the left of consensus. NHC going against consensus is unusual.

I'd place my bet on NHC over the models when it comes to track

Absolutely, nhc is great on track.

Yes, they are always steady and move tracks systematically!

Twitter has wild swings based on latest model run!

[skyline385]

Think we see the exposed LLC clouds around 50 secs in, regardless it's an amazing time lapse

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1570579673004003331




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[AtlanticWind]

I think the scenario that we in florida would find that would be most concerning is Fiona staying weak
but surviving that it allows it to get in the SE bahamas but then slowing down over
those very warm waters giving the chance for some fairly rapid devolpment.

[msbee]

As of tomorrow the island of St Maarten, will be pretty much closed down. Taking no chances.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1570583939903008768

[SFLcane]

Seems like Hispaniola is unavoidable.

[Keldeo1997]

Seems like Hispaniola is unavoidable.

Which unless it gets destroyed might a bad thing in the long run

[tolakram]

Floater NT Microphysics https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-ntmicro-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined