ATL: FIONA - Models

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skyline385
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#301 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:01 pm

Westward run incoming from GFS, this is going to get people talking after 12 Euro

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#302 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:02 pm

LarryWx wrote:Happy Hour GFS is way west vs 12Z!


At this rate we will end up in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#303 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:14 pm

In the southern Bahamas
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Way west is an understatement
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#304 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:15 pm

Ridge building up from the west but maybe it still gets yanked

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#305 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:17 pm

Nope, gets trapped near the Bahamas, moving westwards at 153h :double:
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#306 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:17 pm

That’s a huge shift W by the On Crack GFS. Hmmmm was CMC just an outlier? Like we were told just hours ago just to witness the Euro follow suit?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#307 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:19 pm

skyline385 wrote:Nope, gets trapped near the Bahama, moving westwards at 153h :double:


Still moving north, and TT is delayed.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#308 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:19 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Nope, gets trapped near the Bahama, moving westwards at 153h :double:


Still moving north, and TT is delayed.


Am using Pivotal, it seems to suddenly jump north afterwards.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#309 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:20 pm

I do not like these trends. I don't want anything in the GOM.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#310 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:21 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Nope, gets trapped near the Bahama, moving westwards at 153h :double:


Still moving north, and TT is delayed.


Am using Pivotal, it seems to suddenly jump north afterwards.

Probably an Isaias-like center reformation to the north of Hispaniola during landfall.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#311 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:21 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Nope, gets trapped near the Bahama, moving westwards at 153h :double:


Still moving north, and TT is delayed.


Am using Pivotal, it seems to suddenly jump north afterwards.


I'm using WeatherNerds.

Also, I'm afraid that we may need to be careful on the posting rate, it's been a year since we've having a posting rate related to Tropical Cyclones this high.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#312 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:22 pm

Looks like finally going OTS at 168h
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#313 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:22 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Still moving north, and TT is delayed.


Am using Pivotal, it seems to suddenly jump north afterwards.


I'm using WeatherNerds.

Also, I'm afraid that we may need to be careful on the posting rate, it's been a year since we've having a posting rate related to Tropical Cyclones this high.

Huh? What does that have to do with anything lol
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#314 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:23 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#315 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:24 pm

Moving NW now, happy hour GFS going to do its thing :D

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Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#316 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:24 pm

It's starting to bend back west around 177hr (note image updated to a few frames after the prior post)
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#317 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:24 pm

Cat 1 hurricane heading due north out of the Bahamas by 174hrs. This is going to be a very close call run.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#318 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:25 pm

Image

Its trapped..... :double: :double:
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#319 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:26 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Am using Pivotal, it seems to suddenly jump north afterwards.


I'm using WeatherNerds.

Also, I'm afraid that we may need to be careful on the posting rate, it's been a year since we've having a posting rate related to Tropical Cyclones this high.

Huh? What does that have to do with anything lol

(I'm taking this too literally and is OT, sorry mods and admins. :oops: )

I'm talking about that there is an higher than normal risk of one-liners being posted and being gotten away with it.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#320 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:28 pm



Looks like its just stalling, moving NNW very slowly
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