ATL: FIONA - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#261 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:47 pm

12z Euro already to Andros Island at 186 hrs. What does 500 mb pattern look like at that point?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#262 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:47 pm

Image
12z ECMWF... 198 hrs
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#263 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:49 pm

WOW completely different steering on the Euro...
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#264 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:49 pm

Come on Euro… what are you doing? Right offshore Broward/Dade at 216.


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#265 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:49 pm

Hits SFL...
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#266 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:49 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/2mMYPES.gif
12z ECMWF...174 hrs moving off E Cuba now

Still looks like it wants to recurve. It will take a lot for this to be a SEFL impact.


I don't think so. Looks like this particular path puts Fiona in a completely different steering pattern
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#267 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:50 pm

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12z ECMWF... 204 hrs Probably a hurricane now...
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#268 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:50 pm

SFLcane wrote:Hits SFL...

This will get the board hopping again. Maybe the CMC isn’t out to lunch after all.


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#269 Postby drezee » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:53 pm

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1570485665779060736


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#270 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:53 pm

Almost identical to the Canadian…
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#271 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:54 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/0kP68tu.gif
12z ECMWF... 204 hrs Probably a hurricane now...


I have this at 216 hours. (It's EC-Fast though)

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https://s5.gifyu.com/images/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#272 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:55 pm

Image
12z ECMWF... 222 hrs Looks WNW to NW into Florida as strong Cat 1 hurricane...
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#273 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:56 pm

lol Euro just had to do it

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#274 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:57 pm

That looks like our backyard Blown Away…


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#275 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:57 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ShIr24L.gif
12z ECMWF... 222 hrs Looks WNW to NW into Florida as strong Cat 1 hurricane...


Right into Palm Beach County/Treasure Coast
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#276 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:57 pm

:eek:

Right over me!

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#277 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 15, 2022 1:59 pm

Image
12z ECMWF... Landfall Palm Beach to Martin County... Over me, lol.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#278 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:00 pm

We don't really know if Euro and CMC will be correct, but if they are, it's a classic case of how relatively unfavorable MDR conditions can play havoc with the US. A healthy, hearty Fiona right now would probably pose very little threat to the continental US.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#279 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:01 pm

EURO showing a hurricane landfall in SE Florida. Oops. Looking like it's starting to see the same setup the CMC is showing.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#280 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:02 pm

Hmm, That track is concerning. The slightest of nuances could mean the difference between a tropical storm and a major hurricane with a track like that.
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