ATL: FIONA - Models

[tolakram]

CMC trend

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

CMC has to play the drama king role until the very end.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

CMC has been trending E the last couple of runs so it's likely just correcting itself with the main OPs.

[tolakram]

Maybe it will hit New Orleans as well.

[SFLcane]

CMC has been trending E the last couple of runs so it's likely just correcting itself with the main OPs.

Na, completly different pattern. Looks similar to some of those eps members.

[ElectricStorm]

Cat 4 into Bermuda on the GFS

[skyline385]

Maybe it will hit New Orleans as well.

It did because why wouldn’t it




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[tolakram]

GFS has a near Bermuda hit.

[SoupBone]

CMC has an Andrew-esque run to it. But it does look like it's moving closer inline for each run to the GFS and Euro.

[toad strangler]

CMC has an Andrew-esque run to it. But it does look like it's moving closer inline for each run to the GFS and Euro.

Ya, I would expect the CMC to re-curve next run.

[tolakram]

source: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al072022/

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1570 ... MRlT5rbWjQ

Converging on an OTS or Bermuda solution maybe

[NDG]

Rainfall totals by the 12z GFS.

[gatorcane]

CMC has an Andrew-esque run to it. But it does look like it's moving closer inline for each run to the GFS and Euro.

Ya, I would expect the CMC to re-curve next run.

The CMC is usually west-biased. It is an outlier.

Recurve east of Florida and even Bahamas looks more likely.

[toad strangler]

CMC has an Andrew-esque run to it. But it does look like it's moving closer inline for each run to the GFS and Euro.

Ya, I would expect the CMC to re-curve next run.

The CMC is usually west-biased. It is an outlier.

Right, but it's been trending more and more east the past handful of runs. So it sure looks to be "correcting" with it's west bias. Thus ... OTS! (as far as the CONUS is concerned)

[SFLcane]

CMC has an Andrew-esque run to it. But it does look like it's moving closer inline for each run to the GFS and Euro.

Ya, I would expect the CMC to re-curve next run.

The CMC is usually west-biased. It is an outlier.

Recurve east of Florida and even Bahamas looks more likely.

Nothing is an outlier at this point in my opinion until the storm gets near the islands.

[toad strangler]

Ya, I would expect the CMC to re-curve next run.

The CMC is usually west-biased. It is an outlier.

Recurve east of Florida and even Bahamas looks more likely.

Nothing is an outlier at this point in my opinion until the storm gets near the islands.

Of course. Just commenting on CMC.

[Jr0d]

While the CMC is slowly trending right and by tomorrow will likely have this OTS, the current forecast is particularly worrisome. Its been many consecutive runs with a S.Florida followed by a 2nd landfall in the Gulf. Still the most unlikely of main models but I don't think this can be ignored.

The water in the Bahamas, around South Florida and adjacent Gulf of Mexico is extremely hot, even for this time of year. While Fiona will likely not be an issue, it is amazing that nothing has developed in this area. When it happens watch out. If the CMC solution were to happen, I think S. Florida could see the storm absolutely bomb.

The GFS in my.opinion has performed poorly all year and not putting much weight in it.

I am hoping by tomorrow evening there is little more convergence so I can be confident I will not be dealing with a storm next weekend. Im fairly confident of no storm...but not or even 90%.