ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

AF303 is about to take off for Fiona.

It's easy to find the center when there's none of that nasty convection obscuring the view.

[skyline385]

Yes LLC is completely exposed and continues to speed west, surely one of them will have to give


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[Spacecoast]

Here's a plot of the latest NHC track (red) vs. consensus (TVCN) in blue. Looks like NHC may have one point a little too far south as it passes PR. Just a 0.1 deg north adjustment there would smooth out their track. Numbers are date/time (in CDT). They're staying right with consensus until it passes PR, then east of consensus. Their track is right on top of mine (which I didn't plot).

http://wxman57.com/images/NHCvsConsensus.JPG

Not sure why wxman57's image did not display, but here it is.

[Iceresistance]

Here's a plot of the latest NHC track (red) vs. consensus (TVCN) in blue. Looks like NHC may have one point a little too far south as it passes PR. Just a 0.1 deg north adjustment there would smooth out their track. Numbers are date/time (in CDT). They're staying right with consensus until it passes PR, then east of consensus. Their track is right on top of mine (which I didn't plot).

http://wxman57.com/images/NHCvsConsensus.JPG

Not sure why wxman57's image did not display, but here it is.
https://i.ibb.co/hB2hn4m/cck.jpg

His site is an http, and it would not load, the only sites that can load images now are the https

[tolakram]

Here's a plot of the latest NHC track (red) vs. consensus (TVCN) in blue. Looks like NHC may have one point a little too far south as it passes PR. Just a 0.1 deg north adjustment there would smooth out their track. Numbers are date/time (in CDT). They're staying right with consensus until it passes PR, then east of consensus. Their track is right on top of mine (which I didn't plot).

http://wxman57.com/images/NHCvsConsensus.JPG

Not sure why wxman57's image did not display, but here it is.
https://i.ibb.co/hB2hn4m/cck.jpg

His site is an http, and it would not load, the only sites that can load images now are the https

That is a Chrome setting, not universal. I put instructions here for how to add an exception: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=122727 I suspect soon all browsers will add the limit so no non secure URL's will load on a secure page.

[Iceresistance]

Recon had problems before they could even take off! AF303 is out, it has been replaced by AF306

[wxman57]

I see that the 12Z GFS is farther west before recurve, right in line with TVCN (consensus). Center remains about 100 miles west of the convection. Hard for a storm to maintain its intensity, much less strengthen, under such shear. 45 kts might be a stretch in those squalls. NOAA Dvorak is at 2.5, CIMSS at 2.4. Recon could help if it would ever depart.

[Blown Away]

Fiona's LLC is racing farther away from the convection to the E. Appears to be moving faster than 12 knots per 11am update.

[lsuhurricane]

Are we thinking that the current LLC will die off? Not seeing how it will become aligned in the short term. This also creates some doubt as to how models depict a stronger and aligned storm moving W to WNW.

[Jr0d]

This could dissipate if this keeps running naked toward the islands. It also is significantly less likely to get pulled north being a shallow swirl. If enough energy makes past Hispaniola, perhaps this might have a chance to be revived.

Chances in my opinion are slim to nil a new llc developed under the convection.

[wxman57]

Are we thinking that the current LLC will die off? Not seeing how it will become aligned in the short term. This also creates some doubt as to how models depict a stronger and aligned storm moving W to WNW.

No, it won't die off. I think that as it enters the NE Caribbean, shear will drop off a little and squalls will develop closer to the center. There may even be some squalls west of the center by the time it passes Puerto Rico. Most of its impacts to the islands will come after the center passes.

[Blown Away]

Are we thinking that the current LLC will die off? Not seeing how it will become aligned in the short term. This also creates some doubt as to how models depict a stronger and aligned storm moving W to WNW.

No that LLC is pretty vigorous. If anything it will take longer to build convection back up and go a a few degrees farther W which could result in more involvement with Hispaniola. If that happens then I think more uncertainty with that track after Hispaniola. JMHO

[SFLcane]

Are we thinking that the current LLC will die off? Not seeing how it will become aligned in the short term. This also creates some doubt as to how models depict a stronger and aligned storm moving W to WNW.

No that LLC is pretty vigorous. If anything it will take longer to build convection back up and go a a few degrees farther W which could result in more involvement with Hispaniola. If that happens then I think more uncertainty with that track after Hispaniola. JMHO

Which is what the canadian shows.

[ElectricStorm]

I don't think it's going to be able to fire enough convection to cover up the LLC until it reaches the islands and slows down a bit. Until then it shouldn't be able to strengthen at all and might even start to weaken if the LLC keeps racing ahead like it looks like it's going to.

That being said however I think it's going to get its act together once it reaches the islands. I wouldn't be surprised if its close to hurricane strength when it reaches PR. After that everything is still up in the air of course.

[Jr0d]

I
That being said however I think it's going to get its act together once it reaches the islands. I wouldn't be surprised if its close to hurricane strength when it reaches PR. After that everything is still up in the air of course.

I think it will struggle until it gets past Hispaniola, then it will have a chance to become hurricane. There is an off chance(maybe 10%) this keeps going west past Hispaniola and into Cuba, if it survives the shredder it will have a chance to pull herself together once clear of the east Cuba mountains.

[underthwx]

I
That being said however I think it's going to get its act together once it reaches the islands. I wouldn't be surprised if its close to hurricane strength when it reaches PR. After that everything is still up in the air of course.

I think it will struggle until it gets past Hispaniola, then it will have a chance to become hurricane. There is an off chance(maybe 10%) this keeps going west past Hispaniola and into Cuba, if it survives the shredder it will have a chance to pull herself together once clear of the east Cuba mountains.

Is the cyclone forecast to track as ar West as the Eastern Tip of Cuba?...

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Recon is just west of Guadeloupe Island now. Should arrive in another hour or so. We know where the center is. Let's see what is in those squalls 100+ miles east of that swirl.

[chaser1]

I
That being said however I think it's going to get its act together once it reaches the islands. I wouldn't be surprised if its close to hurricane strength when it reaches PR. After that everything is still up in the air of course.

I think it will struggle until it gets past Hispaniola, then it will have a chance to become hurricane. There is an off chance(maybe 10%) this keeps going west past Hispaniola and into Cuba, if it survives the shredder it will have a chance to pull herself together once clear of the east Cuba mountains.

Is the cyclone forecast to track as ar West as the Eastern Tip of Cuba?...

Nope (yet)

[wxman57]

12Z Euro takes it to eastern Cuba (so far). Have to watch these sheared storms. The center will follow the convection. If the convection is driven north then that's where the center will go. If all the convection dies out, then the Euro could verify. That's quite a big change from the previous run, so I'd tend not to believe it. It's also too close to the Canadian, which I never believe.

P.S.

Well, let's just hope the 12Z Euro is out to lunch...