ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/MDR_Titan/status/1570222472733261826

[Hammy]

Upgraded to Fiona minutes ago based on ASCAT

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

9:45 PM AST Wed Sep 14
Location: 16.8°N 52.0°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[tolakram]

Not sure I see a center relocation.

SLIDER proxy visible https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15854&y=7414&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a
tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85
km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be
released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Category5Kaiju]

Already at 50 mph? Gosh dang.

[Hammy]

Already at 50 mph? Gosh dang.

Good chance this was a depression since yesterday evening and probably a tropical storm already since afternoon.

[ElectricStorm]

Not sure about a center relocation yet but I wouldn't be surprised if it does try to relocate it under the convection at some point though.

[AtlanticWind]

System continues to overperform

[tolakram]

IR floater, continues to expand convection.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[AtlanticWind]

Estimated pressure 1002mb , pretty impressive .Definetely didnt see this coming on the gfs or euro .

[Hurricane2022]

I don't think even Shrek believed in a development as fast as this

[Nimbus]

The updraft core from the surface circ looks like it is tilted south to the convection now?
Not exactly ideal ventilation but shear could be weakening if the earlier forecast was wrong.
NHC wouldn't have upgraded if forecast shear was going to blow the tops off.
Recon will be in there tomorrow and we will know more then.

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't think even Shrek believed in a development as fast as this

I can just sniff the "All Star" memes coming if Fiona defies expectations and blows up into a major hurricane

[skyline385]

The updraft core from the surface circ looks like it is tilted south to the convection now?
Not exactly ideal ventilation but shear could be weakening if the earlier forecast was wrong.
NHC wouldn't have upgraded if forecast shear was going to blow the tops off.
Recon will be in there tomorrow and we will know more then.

Yea recon tomorrow gonna be very interesting, it seems to be outperforming all models in the midst of moderate shear (even had the half the circulation exposed earlier today).

[AtlanticWind]

Should be some watches issued at 11pm, we will start with intermediate advisories .

[floridasun]

if get stronger and expect that move to north sooner but still afect island down their but pass east Bahama but may pass close to bermuda we see what guys at nhc will say

[galaxy401]

Went out for a bit and came back to a 50 mph storm. Not bad at all though Fiona will probably be messy for the next several days like Earl.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1570230849496576000

[ScottNAtlanta]

Vorticity is stacked until 500mb where it is tilted to the east