ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#161 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:41 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1570103992453308416


0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#162 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:47 pm

I was just going to mention the displaced convection again.
Actually the tilt in the updraft channel from the LLC isn't that unfavorable.
Shear forecast isn't consistent with the Bermuda high I thought I saw in the WV imagery either?
You miss a lot using just one channel wavelength of data so maybe there is invisible troughiness below the ridge.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#163 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:24 pm

Solid convective burst near the LLC.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GOES16-AL072022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 644
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#164 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:29 pm

Afternoon video update on TD-7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsyZznJbY5s
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#165 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:29 pm

Interesting bit from Papin

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1570116153590284289





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#166 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:38 pm

I don't think anything "went wrong" with the GFS forecast. Yesterday's 12Z run had a very weak closed low today, exactly as it predicted. Wind shear is predicted to increase as it nears the Caribbean. You can't call it wrong until what it was forecasting doesn't happen.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145294
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#167 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:47 pm

AL, 07, 2022091418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 501W, 30, 1008, TD


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal072022.dat
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#168 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:I don't think anything "went wrong" with the GFS forecast. Yesterday's 12Z run had a very weak closed low today, exactly as it predicted. Wind shear is predicted to increase as it nears the Caribbean. You can't call it wrong until what it was forecasting doesn't happen.

GFS didn’t seem to catch the vortmax in yesterdays run which is what Papin and some others on wxtwitter are talking about.

Image
Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#169 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 07, 2022091418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 501W, 30, 1008, TD


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal072022.dat


NHC said 16.7N at 00z, these small N adjustments might bring TD7 over PR?
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#170 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:44 pm

Here's a comparison between the 18Z TVCN (consensus) and the 15Z NHC track. TVCN is in purple. New TVCN is way slower than the 12Z, probably because the 12Z GFS is nearly 24 hours slower in tracking it across the NE Caribbean. I think that's too slow. The TVCN turns it northward too quickly, most likely. Farther east of 12Z, but that looks a little too far east.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#171 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:45 pm

Blown Away wrote:
NHC said 16.7N at 00z, these small N adjustments might bring TD7 over PR?


Don't focus in the center. There probably won't be any significant weather associated with the center. Westerly wind shear should push all squalls east of the center. Therefore, passing right over Puerto Rico would decrease the time that squalls impact Puerto Rico.
2 likes   
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9155
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#172 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:27 pm

Image
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#173 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:36 pm

Image
Image

TD7's LLC popping out? Vigorous little circulation...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#174 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:00 pm

The 5pm track has shifted a little north and is showing a poleward turn at 4-5 days, like what most of the models are showing now. This could get uncomfortably close to the CONUS after passing over the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#175 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:14 pm

Looking good so far although still tilted

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1570156208727724033




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1570149649159262214




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Top
TJRE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:04 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#176 Postby TJRE » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:27 pm

Just a small reminder....
Image

Image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#177 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:29 pm

TJRE wrote:Just a small reminder....
Image

Image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
TJRE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:04 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#178 Postby TJRE » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:43 pm

skyline385 wrote:Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


Understood 385.....just food for thought, today

cod met meso --- https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

moxy
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#179 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:54 pm

skyline385 wrote:

Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


To my knowledge the boxes are more for risk assessment, as storms that pass outside of them are less likely to hit Florida
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1541
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#180 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:59 pm

 https://twitter.com/AlanSHolt/status/1570051959297654784




 https://twitter.com/AlanSHolt/status/1570051977664688134


Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests