ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#161 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:41 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1570103992453308416


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#162 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:47 pm

I was just going to mention the displaced convection again.
Actually the tilt in the updraft channel from the LLC isn't that unfavorable.
Shear forecast isn't consistent with the Bermuda high I thought I saw in the WV imagery either?
You miss a lot using just one channel wavelength of data so maybe there is invisible troughiness below the ridge.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#163 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:24 pm

Solid convective burst near the LLC.

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https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GOES16-AL072022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#164 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:29 pm

Afternoon video update on TD-7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsyZznJbY5s
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#165 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:29 pm

Interesting bit from Papin

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1570116153590284289





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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#166 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:38 pm

I don't think anything "went wrong" with the GFS forecast. Yesterday's 12Z run had a very weak closed low today, exactly as it predicted. Wind shear is predicted to increase as it nears the Caribbean. You can't call it wrong until what it was forecasting doesn't happen.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#167 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:47 pm

AL, 07, 2022091418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 501W, 30, 1008, TD


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal072022.dat
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#168 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:I don't think anything "went wrong" with the GFS forecast. Yesterday's 12Z run had a very weak closed low today, exactly as it predicted. Wind shear is predicted to increase as it nears the Caribbean. You can't call it wrong until what it was forecasting doesn't happen.

GFS didn’t seem to catch the vortmax in yesterdays run which is what Papin and some others on wxtwitter are talking about.

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#169 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 07, 2022091418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 501W, 30, 1008, TD


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal072022.dat


NHC said 16.7N at 00z, these small N adjustments might bring TD7 over PR?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#170 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:44 pm

Here's a comparison between the 18Z TVCN (consensus) and the 15Z NHC track. TVCN is in purple. New TVCN is way slower than the 12Z, probably because the 12Z GFS is nearly 24 hours slower in tracking it across the NE Caribbean. I think that's too slow. The TVCN turns it northward too quickly, most likely. Farther east of 12Z, but that looks a little too far east.

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#171 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:45 pm

Blown Away wrote:
NHC said 16.7N at 00z, these small N adjustments might bring TD7 over PR?


Don't focus in the center. There probably won't be any significant weather associated with the center. Westerly wind shear should push all squalls east of the center. Therefore, passing right over Puerto Rico would decrease the time that squalls impact Puerto Rico.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#172 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#173 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:36 pm

Image
Image

TD7's LLC popping out? Vigorous little circulation...
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#174 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:00 pm

The 5pm track has shifted a little north and is showing a poleward turn at 4-5 days, like what most of the models are showing now. This could get uncomfortably close to the CONUS after passing over the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola.
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ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#175 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:14 pm

Looking good so far although still tilted

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1570156208727724033




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1570149649159262214




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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#176 Postby TJRE » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:27 pm

Just a small reminder....
Image

Image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#177 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:29 pm

TJRE wrote:Just a small reminder....
Image

Image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#178 Postby TJRE » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:43 pm

skyline385 wrote:Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


Understood 385.....just food for thought, today

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#179 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:54 pm

skyline385 wrote:

Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


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To my knowledge the boxes are more for risk assessment, as storms that pass outside of them are less likely to hit Florida
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#180 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:59 pm

 https://twitter.com/AlanSHolt/status/1570051959297654784




 https://twitter.com/AlanSHolt/status/1570051977664688134


Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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