ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

live floater loop Starting to look better already.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[InfernoFlameCat]

Earl is really starting to get quite large. The trough is amplifying its size. We could see a very large storm soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

live floater loop Starting to look better already.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It’s still taking a beating though. Those hot towers around its core are taking some weird paths that don’t match up well with the apparent eye. Still think shear will decrease overnight, but it’s definitely gotten more tilted this afternoon

[InfernoFlameCat]

The eye is clearing. I can already see the ocean in the latest frame. Its tilted still but its organizing.

[jlauderdal]

The eye is clearing. I can already see the ocean in the latest frame. Its tilted still but its organizing.

Good Old Earl is helping with ACE and more systems on the way.

[aspen]

Wow, brief Cat 3 FL winds and a pressure down into the 960s.

[Hammy]

Wow, brief Cat 3 FL winds and a pressure down into the 960s.

Winds don't seem like they're making it to the surface though, 71kt was the strongest SFMR.

[kevin]

Extrapolated pressure of 965.5 mb, it's definitely deepening again. FL winds peaked at 96 kt which with a normal conversion factor would translate to an ~85 kt intensity. But SFMR so far peaked at only 71 kt.

[aspen]

Wow, brief Cat 3 FL winds and a pressure down into the 960s.

Winds don't seem like they're making it to the surface though, 71kt was the strongest SFMR.

There are a lot of hot towers popping up along the eyewall and could start translating those FL winds a little better. We might see higher SFMR readings in later center passes.

[kevin]

971 mb dropsonde in the eye with 3 kt winds. NW eyewall had a 75 kt SFMR peak and 87 kt FL winds. Together with the 96 kt FL winds in the SE quadrant this could be blended to an 80 kt intensity. But it's a bit iffy, from the measurements so far it seems like winds aren't fully mixing down to the surface just yet. Probably has to do with Earl still needing to fully recover from all the shear. It is deepening though and shear is relaxing so I'm expecting an RI phase to start soon.

[aspen]

971 mb dropsonde in the eye with 3 kt winds. NW eyewall had a 75 kt SFMR peak and 87 kt FL winds. Together with the 96 kt FL winds in the SE quadrant this could be blended to an 80 kt intensity. But it's a bit iffy, from the measurements so far it seems like winds aren't fully mixing down to the surface just yet. Probably has to do with Earl still needing to fully recover from all the shear. It is deepening though and shear is relaxing so I'm expecting an RI phase to start soon.

Two drops in the NW eyewall found 79 kt surface winds, so I think there’s enough evidence to justify an upgrade to 80 kt at the next intermediate advisory…unless a future pass finds higher FL and SFMR winds.

[Iceresistance]

971 mb dropsonde in the eye with 3 kt winds. NW eyewall had a 75 kt SFMR peak and 87 kt FL winds. Together with the 96 kt FL winds in the SE quadrant this could be blended to an 80 kt intensity. But it's a bit iffy, from the measurements so far it seems like winds aren't fully mixing down to the surface just yet. Probably has to do with Earl still needing to fully recover from all the shear. It is deepening though and shear is relaxing so I'm expecting an RI phase to start soon.

Also want to mention higher winds (around 90-95 knots) just above sea level on the NW eyewall dropsonde. Earl will try to mix down the stronger winds later tonight, I'm expecting a CAT 3 by Friday if not earlier.

[tolakram]

Live IR. Earl is getting big.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-13-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ElectricStorm]

966mb extrap, 79kt FL, 74kt SFMR in W eyewall this pass

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EARL IS STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 65.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

[InfernoFlameCat]

Earl is really getting larger now. I noticed earlier it had a smaller core so it must have done some sort of core reorganization. Larger eyes are more resistant to shear so it makes sense that Earl would develop a larger eye because anything smaller would be unable to sustain itself. Beautiful cane.

[aspen]

Earl is opening his giant eye:

[ElectricStorm]

107kt FL, 76kt SFMR in E eyewall. 80kts looks pretty good, NHC spot on

[InfernoFlameCat]

Earl of 2022 reminds me of, well, Earl of 2010. Big, peaceful hurricane that is fun to track.

[Iceresistance]

2nd eye Dropsonde has 970 MB with 5 knots of wind.