ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

In case anyone is interested, I have been following this channel on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/c/MrWeatherman/videos
He does some really well done deep dives on the Tropics and weather in the Caribbean. I recognize him from somewhere just can't place my finger on it.

[aspen]

The NHC says shear will drop to below 10 kt by tomorrow morning, but the reduction in shear is already apparent, with cloud bands expanding into the southern half of the storm.

Another recon plane is on its way. Maybe we’ll have a Cat 2 by the time it arrives.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

The NHC says shear will drop to below 10 kt by tomorrow morning, but the reduction in shear is already apparent, with cloud bands expanding into the southern half of the storm.

Another recon plane is on its way. Maybe we’ll have a Cat 2 by the time it arrives.

There are definitely some noticeable organizational trends going on. Appearance on vis is rapidly improving, it’s only a matter of time until IR shows this too

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think we have an eye clearing out. A large one.

[kevin]

Earl has an eye. Will look very nice once it's completely cleared of clouds.

[ElectricStorm]

85kt FL but SFMR isn't very impressive this pass, pressure might be down a couple mb but overall it looks about the same as the last mission so far.

With the eye starting to clear it should start to get going soon though.

[NDG]

Earl had to get out of the tropics to find a better environment.

[aspen]

The first center drop is 974mb. The NE quadrant had some more Cat 2 winds, but lower SFMR. 90% FL to surface conversion still supports 75 kt. Let’s see what the northern quadrant yields, because that had some of the strongest winds last time.

[cheezyWXguy]

Might be a good few hours before the winds catch up. Has a solid structure but until it starts generating some deeper convection in all quads it’s gonna have some trouble mixing FL winds down to the surface. It’s only a matter of time though, 974mb is quite low for a normal sized cat1, especially at this latitude

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated down to 972.5 MB, but could get lower in the next update.

ETA: Yep! Down to 971.7 MB Extrapolated.

[ElectricStorm]

90kt FL in SE quad, SFMR still isn't great though

[aspen]

90kt FL in SE quad, SFMR still isn't great though

It needs deeper convection to wrap around the eye to translate those FL down to the surface.

The NHC could up the 5pm intensity to 80 kt if they go with the standard 90% conversion factor and ignore the low SFMR, or they could play it safe and keep it at 75 kt. Either way, the pressure is now down to the low 970s, and waiting for the winds to catch up.

[ChrisH-UK]

I have made this loop using GOEs-16 combining the Geo Colour and Optical Depth which shows the cloud depth. This helps to give a an idea of the structure of a cyclone like Earl, as we can see the clouds are building up around the center and a eye is starting to form. For a better look here is the source - https://col.st/BHspU

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Pressure's up to 977 on the last pass and the winds barely support hurricane intensity.

[tolakram]

Shear increasing by the looks of it.

[wxman57]

90kt FL in SE quad, SFMR still isn't great though

It needs deeper convection to wrap around the eye to translate those FL down to the surface.

The NHC could up the 5pm intensity to 80 kt if they go with the standard 90% conversion factor and ignore the low SFMR, or they could play it safe and keep it at 75 kt. Either way, the pressure is now down to the low 970s, and waiting for the winds to catch up.

Ignoring actual observations in favor of theoretical FL to surface wind conversion would not be a good practice. However, the pressure and appearance on satellite suggest stronger than the 63kt SFMR wind. Possible plane did not sample strongest winds.

[Ubuntwo]

Shear increasing by the looks of it.

Shear has steadily been decreasing over the vortex and is now 15-20kt from a high of 35kt between the 5th and 6th. I think we're mostly seeing the effects of diurnal cycling at the moment.

[aspen]

Another plane is heading out, so we’ll know in a few hours if Earl really is weakening, or if it’s just in a steady state waiting for deeper convection to develop and start a phase of quicker intensification.