2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

We should see this tagged soon.

[LarryWx]

We should see this tagged soon.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYk1cS9X/F60-FF6-AC-99-E6-4460-9-F04-9-D21-A82-A3-E87.gif

Based on the timing of the models, the main energy may be that larger area further inland because I don't see any weak low offshore for another 36-48 hours or so.

Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS has this as a very weak disturbance in the Leewards/PR on 9/19 moving W to WNW.

[SFLcane]

We should see this tagged soon.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYk1cS9X/F60-FF6-AC-99-E6-4460-9-F04-9-D21-A82-A3-E87.gif

Based on the timing of the models, the main energy may be that larger area further inland because I don't see any weak low offshore for another 36-48 hours or so.

Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS has this as a very weak disturbance in the Leewards/PR on 9/19 moving W to WNW.

GEFS has a solid signal but as we do in 2022 its all fishy.

[LarryWx]

We should see this tagged soon.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYk1cS9X/F60-FF6-AC-99-E6-4460-9-F04-9-D21-A82-A3-E87.gif

Based on the timing of the models, the main energy may be that larger area further inland because I don't see any weak low offshore for another 36-48 hours or so.

Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS has this as a very weak disturbance in the Leewards/PR on 9/19 moving W to WNW.

GEFS has a solid signal but as we do in 2022 its all fishy.

Yes, indeed, the Happy Hour GEFS has a solid signal. I don't think this is anywhere close to a guaranteed fish though because the steering high to its north moves west in tandem, which may allow the entity to move pretty far west in the basin, especially if it stays weak.

[LarryWx]

We should see this tagged soon.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYk1cS9X/F60-FF6-AC-99-E6-4460-9-F04-9-D21-A82-A3-E87.gif

Based on the timing of the models, the main energy may be that larger area further inland because I don't see any weak low offshore for another 36-48 hours or so.

Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS has this as a very weak disturbance in the Leewards/PR on 9/19 moving W to WNW.

GEFS has a solid signal but as we do in 2022 its all fishy.

The 0Z ICON has this again and a bit stronger as it gets down to 997 mb. Based on the end of the run's motion and the weakening high to the north, it appears to be fishing.

[Landy]

00z GFS significantly stronger with the wave after our current AOI. 987mb at hour 156.

[LarryWx]

Based on the timing of the models, the main energy may be that larger area further inland because I don't see any weak low offshore for another 36-48 hours or so.

Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS has this as a very weak disturbance in the Leewards/PR on 9/19 moving W to WNW.

GEFS has a solid signal but as we do in 2022 its all fishy.

The 0Z ICON has this again and a bit stronger as it gets down to 997 mb. Based on the end of the run's motion and the weakening high to the north, it appears to be fishing.

1. 0Z GFS has this as a hurricane in the MDR after hardly doing anything with it on previous runs. With it much stronger, it also looks to be fishing though the run isn't finished yet.

2. 0Z UKMET has genesis much earlier again, similar to the two runs prior to the last one:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 19.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2022 60 9.5N 19.9W 1008 33
0000UTC 09.09.2022 72 10.6N 21.8W 1009 27
1200UTC 09.09.2022 84 10.7N 25.1W 1009 27
0000UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.8N 28.6W 1008 28
1200UTC 10.09.2022 108 11.3N 32.4W 1007 32
0000UTC 11.09.2022 120 11.9N 35.7W 1006 33
1200UTC 11.09.2022 132 12.8N 38.4W 1005 41
0000UTC 12.09.2022 144 14.2N 40.5W 1004 47

3. 0Z CMC is also doing more with this than the prior run though it appears like it will likely fish on this run.

[AutoPenalti]

I guess the ridge will be weakening into next week.

[LarryWx]

For the same AEW, the 0Z GEFS is by far the most active run yet with more than half the 31 members with hurricanes. About half of those recurve harmlessly, but the others threaten at least the Caribbean 9/15-17+ fwiw.

[Hammy]

Euro's 72h and 168h runs look vaguely similar which shows just how stuck the general pattern is

[Teban54]

Euro's 72h and 168h runs look vaguely similar which shows just how stuck the general pattern is

https://i.imgur.com/Rr94pOO.png
https://i.imgur.com/okDdKo2.png

And then, from 216h to 240h, it has a storm making an Irma-like WSW dip in the central MDR lol.

[skyline385]

Not a big fan of that one member deciding to not recurve and head towards PBC, regardless this system looks like it’s going to be one of the big ACE generators especially with the warm mid-latitudes.




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[aspen]

The wave that’ll emerge on Thursday will probably be tagged by the NHC soon, because all the 00z global model runs develop it. Seems like the 06z GFS is back to no MDR development, but the 06z ICON hasn’t dropped it. The Euro, CMC, and ICON also develop the wave that’ll exit Africa on September 12th.

[SFLcane]

Euro with a wsw dive.

[NDG]

06z GFS is at it again with its crazy biased development in the western Caribbean past its 10 day range forecast.

[Steve]

Icon has a 1004mb low hitting NWFL this Friday. It’s somewhat believable considering it’s early September and because ICON often uncovers smaller systems before the big dog models. I’m not sold, it’s just something to watch for particularly if the JMA is right in indicating we are headed back to Phase 2 of the MJO.

Icon
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0606&fh=84

JMA
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

[aspen]

The operational GFS keeps killing off each wave that rolls off Africa, even though the ensembles are active and the other global models develop at least one of these waves.

[tolakram]

06z GFS is at it again with its crazy biased development in the western Caribbean past its 10 day range forecast.

https://i.imgur.com/9U1yEQB.gif

We're ready to believe you GFS!

[skyline385]

ICON keeps showing a wave train but it has been incredibly trigger happy this year, this is what ICON had of Earl a few days (it’s currently at 995mb). Going to take that model with a grain of salt.




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[Nimbus]

Euro with a wsw dive.

https://i.postimg.cc/pX8GGTpL/A6-BD4-A6-B-9-DB6-4-D23-9-BBD-785-F0-AE789-A1.gif

This Euro run the ridge has time to build back in behind Earl, that wouldn't be good..