ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

It's crazy it's that strong despite the LLC being exposed every couple of hours.

[Buck]

Assuming he steers clear of Bermuda, would really love for the forecast of strengthening to the seasons first Major to come true. Would inject this season with some life.

[cheezyWXguy]

I suspect this may be the very beginning of the more significant strengthening phase. While earl is still sporting the anemic shrimp appearance, that latest convective burst is either right next to or over the center with temps as cold as -80C. If this burst can maintain and spread we could see a hurricane fairly soon.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking like "winter storm Earl" at the moment

[aspen]

I suspect this may be the very beginning of the more significant strengthening phase. While earl is still sporting the anemic shrimp appearance, that latest convective burst is either right next to or over the center with temps as cold as -80C. If this burst can maintain and spread we could see a hurricane fairly soon.

AF308 just took off, so we’ll soon see if Earl is on the verge of becoming a hurricane.

[kevin]

Most of the early season underperformed, but Earl is the exact opposite so far. Most storms in these conditions would have dissipated or weakened significantly. But Earl, despite its at times exposed circulation and high shear seems to just continue intensifying. Now there's another burst of convection near the center. I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds Earl to be even stronger than earlier today.

[kevin]

Latest from Earl:

[Teban54]

It's crazy it's that strong despite the LLC being exposed every couple of hours.

Reminds me of Paulette 2020 during its TS stage, when it strengthened to 50 kt when crossing a TUTT.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Paulette with 50 knots of shear intensified. Earl is not in as unfavorable of an environment but it is still over performing.

[kevin]

Looks like recon roughly found the center (only 5 kt peak FL winds and a sharp increase in the air temp. to almost 22C/72F), but unfortunately no additional wind or pressure data is loading on TropicalAtlantic. They weren't able to find such a clear windless center on the previous recon flight though, which seems to indicate an increase in storm organization.

[aspen]

Recon is in Earl but the barometer isn’t working. Meanwhile, the Kay flight hasn’t reported back in over an hour. Great day for recon lol

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Recon is in Earl but the barometer isn’t working. Meanwhile, the Kay flight hasn’t reported back in over an hour. Great day for recon lol

Looks like those 2020 comparisons are starting to hold some water

Hopefully the plane manages to get more than sporadic transmissions of extrapolated SLP and SFMRs working; really interested to see if Earl has strengthened more from earlier, given the persistent bursting of convection overtop the LLC.

[kevin]

Clear center pass at 21.9N/65.2W, roughly half a degree of latitude higher than the current NHC position.

[aspen]

Looks like recon data from AF308 is delayed again. The amount of communication delays over the last few days is getting a little ridiculous.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like recon data from AF308 is delayed again. The amount of communication delays over the last few days is getting a little ridiculous.

Last few years*

[cheezyWXguy]

Clear center pass at 21.9N/65.2W, roughly half a degree of latitude higher than the current NHC position.

https://i.imgur.com/rOQrI0y.png

Center may be getting pulled under the convection a bit. Honestly it’s a little more tucked in than I thought

[aspen]

Looks like recon data from AF308 is delayed again. The amount of communication delays over the last few days is getting a little ridiculous.

Last few years*

True, (hopefully) nothing is going to top Eta. But two planes in two different storms having communication errors at the same time is ridiculous.

There’s also been a lot of model delays over the last few days. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS have kept getting stuck at either 36-39 or 66-75 hours and then don’t update again for anywhere from 20-60 minutes.

[Hammy]

Clear center pass at 21.9N/65.2W, roughly half a degree of latitude higher than the current NHC position.

https://i.imgur.com/rOQrI0y.png

Center may be getting pulled under the convection a bit. Honestly it’s a little more tucked in than I thought

I was surprised when I checked the low cloud motion this afternoon, the center looked exposed before looping it.

[Hurricane Mike]

Earl is still feeling some shear. Once it lifts north, expect fast organization.

[aspen]

The 18:17 recon update just came in…40 minutes late. Still no word from the Kay plane.

Edit: 18z best track is still at 55kt/998mb, so either Earl hasn’t intensified, or even the NHC doesn’t have any recon data from AF308.