EPAC: KAY - Models
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EPAC: KAY - Models
Compared to the usual EPAC threads, the main thread could be littered with a bunch of model runs over the next 5 days. Figure a separate thread would keep things more organized.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
Some things to note.
1. Only two TCs have made landfall in California since 1858. The San Diego Hurricane and the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm.
2. Models and ensembles agree this can reach the off shore coordinates of San Diego as an intact and large TC.
3. Other than some ensemble members, deterministic models are not showing a landfall in the most recent runs.
1. Only two TCs have made landfall in California since 1858. The San Diego Hurricane and the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm.
2. Models and ensembles agree this can reach the off shore coordinates of San Diego as an intact and large TC.
3. Other than some ensemble members, deterministic models are not showing a landfall in the most recent runs.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
I have a hard time believing this could be a serious California threat. After all, that would be unprecedented outside a strong El Nino, and it would take a perfect set of circumstances. You never know though...
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
12z GFS turns this west at hour 120.
12z CMC also as well.
ICON is the only one taking up the Baja California spine.
12z CMC also as well.
ICON is the only one taking up the Baja California spine.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
06z GEFS
00z CMC
Still a good shot for the deep SW CONUS to get rain out of this.
00z CMC
Still a good shot for the deep SW CONUS to get rain out of this.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
12z CMC almost landfalls.
Thinking the ensembles shift a little more east.
Thinking the ensembles shift a little more east.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
Eastward shifts are expected now that Kay is getting vertically deep.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
Could see flooding if the model solutions of this stalling verifies AND it's closer to land.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
Lots of ensembles doing a stall and loop back to land on the latest GEFS.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
12z Euro initially is west of Baja. Then does that same stall and loop.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
18z GFS further east as well but still shows it staying offshore and making a loop.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
Some GEFS members showing that this somehow gets to California as a TC. Most members keep it offshore before showing it to do a stall and a loop back east. Time frame is coming in and it does not look like we'll see a stout ridge to force this west.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
12z GFS now almost brings this onshore Baja in 60 hours. ECMWF also shifting a little more left at 12z.
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Re: EPAC: KAY - Models
12z GFS brings this close to Baja compared to last runs. But Euro shifted west away from land.
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