ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Earl Has spat out its old center. i think it will try to RI tomorrow and look impressive before shear just shoves it off the llc again.

[ChrisH-UK]

I was just looking at the high res floater and I noticed it looking like the lower circulation seems to be moving out from under the convection on the westside of Earl. Here's a close up on it.

[Nimbus]

I was just looking at the high res floater and I noticed it looking like the lower circulation seems to be moving out from under the convection on the westside of Earl. Here's a close up on it.

https://imgur.com/viP6Bzz

Its not racing west like it was, recon found a center north of 20 N so it either made a stair step or is gaining latitude.
Official forecast is for a very slow migration north until Monday.
Trough is down near 25N just needs to dig a little more.

[CrazyC83]

There's still a fair bit of wind shear, so it isn't surprising that it keeps trying to create new centers.

[Hammy]

Reminding me a bit of Erika 2015 with the slowdown/continuous reformation, except we might get to see what would've happened intensity-wise had Hispaniola not gotten in the way, given that was originally forecast to go north of the islands.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like most of the convection is blowing up on the south side. That northern center looks like is not going to win. I think the center that is trying to pop out on the west side will get pulled to where the convection is firing.

[tolakram]

Getting absolutely sandblasted by shear at the moment. How this quickly intensifies is beyond me.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[skyline385]

Still managed a 2mb drop in single pass, winds seem to be near 45 kts


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2022090418, , BEST, 0, 200N, 649W, 45, 998, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat

[Hammy]

One advantage this has having formed from such a large monsoonal gyre is it's quite a large system, which is making the low level flow somewhat shear-resistant in the short term, compared to these systems we've seen in the past that have small, barely-closed centers with only pulsing convection.

[Iceresistance]

There is an absolutely insane amount of lightning over Puerto Rico right now looking at Weathernerds Satellite data.

[wxman57]

Earl is butting up against strong wind shear associated with a TUTT. That wind shear isn't going anywhere the next few days, and Earl cannot penetrate it and survive. GFS is likely WAY too aggressive with strengthening, given the high shear in its path. EC may be too aggressive, too.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Earl is butting up against strong wind shear associated with a TUTT. That wind shear isn't going anywhere the next few days, and Earl cannot penetrate it and survive. GFS is likely WAY too aggressive with strengthening, given the high shear in its path. EC may be too aggressive, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/EarlShear.JPG

If that the case, then every single model is wrong — the GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all have pretty much the same track and intensity solutions through 5 days. I just don’t see everything busting and over-estimating Earl. If it was just a few models showing a hurricane while others showed Earl dissipating, like how the models were a few days ago before it was named, then a bust would be more believable. But every model with such an excellent consensus getting this wrong? That would be an anomaly.

[tolakram]

Earl is butting up against strong wind shear associated with a TUTT. That wind shear isn't going anywhere the next few days, and Earl cannot penetrate it and survive. GFS is likely WAY too aggressive with strengthening, given the high shear in its path. EC may be too aggressive, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/EarlShear.JPG

If that the case, then every single model is wrong — the GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all have pretty much the same track and intensity solutions through 5 days. I just don’t see everything busting and over-estimating Earl. If it was just a few models showing a hurricane while others showed Earl dissipating, like how the models were a few days ago before it was named, then a bust would be more believable. But every model with such an excellent consensus getting this wrong? That would be an anomaly.

Looking at the Euro shear map my assumption is that the shear axis gets into a position to vent Earl. Nothing else makes sense IMO.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Kingarabian]

Sheared LLC is NNW of PR.

[Category5Kaiju]

Earl is butting up against strong wind shear associated with a TUTT. That wind shear isn't going anywhere the next few days, and Earl cannot penetrate it and survive. GFS is likely WAY too aggressive with strengthening, given the high shear in its path. EC may be too aggressive, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/EarlShear.JPG

If that the case, then every single model is wrong — the GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all have pretty much the same track and intensity solutions through 5 days. I just don’t see everything busting and over-estimating Earl. If it was just a few models showing a hurricane while others showed Earl dissipating, like how the models were a few days ago before it was named, then a bust would be more believable. But every model with such an excellent consensus getting this wrong? That would be an anomaly.

Looking at the Euro shear map my assumption is that the shear axis gets into a position to vent Earl. Nothing else makes sense IMO.

Yeah, this is probably the reason. Wind shear alone, unlike dry air, isn't really a death sentence for storms; directions of shear really matter.

[Kingarabian]

Earl is butting up against strong wind shear associated with a TUTT. That wind shear isn't going anywhere the next few days, and Earl cannot penetrate it and survive. GFS is likely WAY too aggressive with strengthening, given the high shear in its path. EC may be too aggressive, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/EarlShear.JPG

If that the case, then every single model is wrong — the GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all have pretty much the same track and intensity solutions through 5 days. I just don’t see everything busting and over-estimating Earl. If it was just a few models showing a hurricane while others showed Earl dissipating, like how the models were a few days ago before it was named, then a bust would be more believable. But every model with such an excellent consensus getting this wrong? That would be an anomaly.

Euro and UKMET solutions from 48 hours ago might be valid.

[ScottNAtlanta]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/mGkkKIK.gif

Center is playing peek-a-boo