2022 EPAC Season
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.
It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
aspen wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.
It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.
La Niña or not, this is good ULAC setup (although not perfect given the storm motion). I’m not super bullish on something say in the Category 4 range yet but something like Olaf and Nora last year is definitely in the cards.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:aspen wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.
It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1014619579214999602/IMG_1576.png
La Niña or not, this is good ULAC setup (although not perfect given the storm motion). I’m not super bullish on something say in the Category 4 range yet but something like Olaf and Nora last year is definitely in the cards.
What about Odile 2014?
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
2. South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
2. South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
aspen wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Both ECMWF and GFS now seem fully locked into a significant hurricane into Baja at the 12z cycle. I’m not seeing much that would actually push it westward out to sea so good chance someone in Mexico is going to get hit by something formidable.
It’s so close to Mexico, though. I have serious doubts a system taking that track during a La Niña year would amount to more than a Cat 1. Not great to get hit by, but nowhere near the doomsday major landfall scenarios the GFS has occasionally yielded.
As if this year was acting as a "la niña"
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1015337902575722627/unknown.png
October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.
Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
aspen wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1015337902575722627/unknown.png
October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.
Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.
The EPAC being busy in ON of last year didn't really have much to do with the Atlantic's shutdown; if anything, the lingering Atlantic Nino is the likely culprit for what happened last year, not really a direct effect of the busy EPAC. If anything, I'm actually willing to bet that this year will see something different in the ON timeframe with the lack of Atlantic Nino dragging the ITCZ far to the south.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Category5Kaiju wrote:aspen wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1015337902575722627/unknown.png
October could be quite busy for Mexico given climo and how far east activity has been focused this year.
Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.
The EPAC being busy in ON of last year didn't really have much to do with the Atlantic's shutdown; if anything, the lingering Atlantic Nino is the likely culprit for what happened last year, not really a direct effect of the busy EPAC. If anything, I'm actually willing to bet that this year will see something different in the ON timeframe with the lack of Atlantic Nino dragging the ITCZ far to the south.
The high pressure that contributed to the Atlantic’s late 2021 shutdown will still be an issue, and look at the VP chart. A rising branch establishes itself over the EPac and Central America, while sinking air becomes present over Africa at the exact same time. That might shut down most of October in the tropical Atlantic, but who knows, maybe some subtropic surprise like Danielle pops up.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- NotSparta
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
aspen wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:aspen wrote:Looks like the Atlantic gets shut down around the same time too. Another ON 2021 here we come.
The EPAC being busy in ON of last year didn't really have much to do with the Atlantic's shutdown; if anything, the lingering Atlantic Nino is the likely culprit for what happened last year, not really a direct effect of the busy EPAC. If anything, I'm actually willing to bet that this year will see something different in the ON timeframe with the lack of Atlantic Nino dragging the ITCZ far to the south.
The high pressure that contributed to the Atlantic’s late 2021 shutdown will still be an issue, and look at the VP chart. A rising branch establishes itself over the EPac and Central America, while sinking air becomes present over Africa at the exact same time. That might shut down most of October in the tropical Atlantic, but who knows, maybe some subtropic surprise like Danielle pops up.
There isn't an Atlantic Nino this year so I don't see how there would be the same problem as ON 2021
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
GFS has two more systems in 10 days becoming hurricanes. Euro has one. CMC still has it in the BOC.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
GFS now have AEW getting ejected from a monsoon gyre while spinning up too quick. I’d disregard it.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
12Z Euro has more rainfall for SWCONUS.
00z GFS has Lester/Madeline sticking around till October. Serious ACE if this materializes.
00z GFS has Lester/Madeline sticking around till October. Serious ACE if this materializes.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
What’s more interesting is the globals (both GFS and ECMWF) have moved away from merging 94E with the other disturbance and now just have an interaction that pulls the latter north. There are hints of a system behind those two but we know how the GFS in particular is with genesis out of the monsoon trough at that range.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
GFS continues with either 94E/95E sticking around for 16 days.
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