ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

It's looking pretty good this morning. Hasn't gone poof. That's progress.

Today’s recon could be interesting. It was already close to a TD last night. The fact that it hasn’t pulsed down yet suggests it might have finally pushed it over the edge to become a TC.

[Blown Away]

Looks good, thinking those percentages should go up soon.

[cycloneye]

1. East of the Leeward Islands:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has slightly increased since
yesterday in association with an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However,
overnight satellite-derived wind data indicate the circulation
remains broad. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, any additional development of the system over the next
few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The
disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the
Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in
that area should monitor the progress of the system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system this afternoon, if necessary. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[BobHarlem]

Still appears elongated on water vapor, with parts of the MLC shooting off to the north. If it did strengthen, it shows its evacuation route on the wv. I think it's going to be more or less the same it has been today. It has been shifting a bit northwest.

[aspen]

When is the next low level recon flight scheduled for?

[Iceresistance]

When is the next low level recon flight scheduled for?

Sometime this afternoon, if necessary.

[Sciencerocks]

[Emmett_Brown]

Weak naked swirl heading WNW.

[hipshot]

It's looking pretty good this morning. Hasn't gone poof. That's progress.

What's that blob to the S.E. of 91L?

[Kingarabian]

Weak naked swirl heading WNW.

Possible the MLC and LLC have split. This is probably what the UKMET and Euro models are showing in their 850mbVort forecasts.

[skyline385]

And now we have a tilted vortex as well

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1565717636788396032





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[ElectricStorm]

To me this seems like a typical weaker = more south and west and stronger = more north and east scenario. I think this will probably stay pretty weak over the next several days (maybe a TD/weak TS at best) maybe even a week. Because of that, I think it might make it further west, and I'm not convinced this will be a safe OTS recurve yet. I think the Bahamas need to be watching this one closely. Hopefully I'm wrong and we end up getting a safe OTS recurving hurricane

[NDG]

Definitely a tilted circulation, wait until it really gets hit with dry westerly shear north of DR/PR.

[tropicwatch]

When is the next low level recon flight scheduled for?

Sometime this afternoon, if necessary.

AF bird is enroute now.

[MGC]

Tilted? Looks decoupled to me. 91L is a mess.....MGC

[wxman57]

Weak LLC is well west of the convection. This is not a TD. May take another 2-3 days. Red crosshairs mark the exposed LLC near 18N/58.3W. Any rotation to the east is mid-level:

P.S. Note the many outflow boundaries emanating away from the low-level swirl. Never a good sign of development.

[aspen]

I hope this does develop into a decent OTS system, because to have it fade away after like two weeks of being tracked is just gonna be frustrating. All that time spent focusing on a nothing burger. But it seems like 2022 is the year of drawn-out AOIs/Invests (Alex, Bonnie) and sudden spin-ups (Colin, Danielle), with nothing in between.

[TallyTracker]

Well with the nascent LLC leaving the MLC and convection behind, this won’t be classified today. IF it develops, I’m expecting only a weak TS tops unless it recurves or survives intact to the western Bahamas. I would only expect intensification of any kind of the dry air west of the system finally dispersed which doesn’t seem likely at this time. As always though, stay vigilant cause the situation can change quickly and it’s clear the models have a dubious grasp at best of what is gonna happen.

[cycloneye]

East of the Leeward Islands:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation.
Environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, but any
additional development of the system over the next few days would
lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward Islands
during the next couple of days, and interests in that area should
monitor the progress of the system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[NDG]

Why is the recon sampling the MLC, that is clearly not where the LLC is.