ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

This was much closer to a depression 36 hours ago than it will be over the next several days.

[Hurricaneman]

Recon has 1005 pressure but if this is not closed it’s just a sharp wave but if the low is closed we have a depression

[cycloneye]

TD?

[Hammy]

This was much closer to a depression 36 hours ago than it will be over the next several days.

Only took four hours for this to reform under the convection and prove me wrong

[cycloneye]

East of the Leeward Islands:
Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the circulation of the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remains broad.
The system continues to produce bursts of showers and thunderstorms
that have changed little in organization over the past 24 hours.
Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive,
any additional development of the system over the next few days
would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The
disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[aspen]

TD?

https://i.imgur.com/Y4EdoqC.png

More data shows it’s not great and not enough for an upgrade, but there is a change in wind directions. However, the last flight showed the same thing going N to S, but didn’t find a change in wind directions while doing an E to W pass. This might be the same tonight.

[Hurricane Mike]

91L looks better than ever tonight, IMO.

Here is tonight's video update:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLjWF_qpdQ

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022090200, , BEST, 0, 169N, 554W, 30, 1008, DB

[galaxy401]

So with models keep pushing 91L's intensification back, it's making me wonder if this system will even find a favorable environment. If not, that will not look good at all for the Atlantic since it's September now.

[aspen]

91L is actually looking rather good based on tonight’s recon. There’s a noticeable wind and pressure decrease near where the LLC seems to be forming, and LLC-like shifts in wind direction have been found in all four quadrants instead of just N to S like in the last flight. Let’s see if 91L keeps this up into the morning. If so, we could have TD6 tomorrow.

[BobHarlem]

This is still not looking too great, at and around it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Every time I have come back to look at this it's up...then it's down...then it's up again...If it can make it 24 hrs with this pulse then that will be against trend so far.

[ScottNAtlanta]

91L is actually looking rather good based on tonight’s recon. There’s a noticeable wind and pressure decrease near where the LLC seems to be forming, and LLC-like shifts in wind direction have been found in all four quadrants instead of just N to S like in the last flight. Let’s see if 91L keeps this up into the morning. If so, we could have TD6 tomorrow.

It has looked that way for 4 days. It all is moving in tandem

[skyline385]

Looks like we have a closed LLC, but still weak for a TD

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1565517424509730818

[ElectricStorm]

ASCAT-B pass from less than an hour ago. EDIT: It has been brought to my attention this pass is actually a few hours old

[Teban54]

ASCAT-B pass from less than an hour ago
https://i.imgur.com/34V8px5.png

So recon found a possible circulation near 17N 55W at 02:36z, but this pass shows one near 15.5N 56W at 04:11z?

[NotSparta]

ASCAT-B pass from less than an hour ago
https://i.imgur.com/34V8px5.png

So recon found a possible circulation near 17N 55W at 02:36z, but this pass shows one near 15.5N 56W at 04:11z?

The ASCAT pass was at 01:24z, the purple numbers at the bottom are the time of the pass

[ElectricStorm]

ASCAT-B pass from less than an hour ago
https://i.imgur.com/34V8px5.png

So recon found a possible circulation near 17N 55W at 02:36z, but this pass shows one near 15.5N 56W at 04:11z?

The ASCAT pass was at 01:24z, the purple numbers at the bottom are the time of the pass

Oh that makes sense now I was wondering why the coordinates didn't match recon or BT

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's looking pretty good this morning. Hasn't gone poof. That's progress.