ATL: EARL - Models

[aspen]

All the latest model outputs for 91L:

06z GFS: TD/TS overnight Saturday into Sunday, becomes a C3 during its recurve

06z Euro: no development or just a TD between late Saturday and early Monday

00z CMC: further south, disrupted by some of the islands, develops on Wednesday after stalling for a while, recurving C1

06z ICON: TD on Saturday afternoon/evening, strong TS by 120hrs

06z HWRF: TS possibly as early as Friday but most likely sometime on Saturday, stalls while trying to recurve as a C2 in 4-5 days

06z HMON: TS early on Saturday, less of a stall, becomes a C1 in 4-5 days

06z 32km NAM: Possible TD on closest approach to NE Caribbean on Saturday


Even with model differences and some showing delayed or no development, most still show this becoming a TD/TS on Saturday into Sunday, the same time frame they’ve been showing for most of the week now. Whether it stays weak like the Euro or becomes an OTS hurricane like almost every other model remains to be seen.

[aspen]

The GFS and Euro have two different solutions regarding how 91L and the two dry air masses interact with each other. On the GFS, they all move together, and not much dry air is shoved into the developing system. On the Euro, it seems like the western dry air mass is mostly stationary, and 91L is shoved into it. Not sure which solution is verifying. Both have good initializations of the surrounding environment.

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC is deepening it over the Bahamas, drifting west. Another big change.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC. Slowly moving north at the end of the run.

[Blown Away]

12z Ukmet showing 91L moving into Bahamas.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/enwXfUh.gif
12z Ukmet showing 91L moving into Bahamas.

This 12Z UKMET move of a weak low into the Bahamas while moving NW and looking to recurve offshore the SE US per the H5 map is a significant shift eastward vs prior runs that had it way down near Cuba moving W to WNW and thus is an expected correction toward the model consensus. Of course, the model consensus, itself, has shifted westward. So, they're coming together toward the middle like often happens.

[aspen]

12z CMC is deepening it over the Bahamas, drifting west. Another big change.
https://i.imgur.com/ZqgSzpP.gif

Imagine we have to watch and wait for another full week before this develops. If that run were to verify exactly, 91L would be named Fiona or Gaston.

[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/enwXfUh.gif
12z Ukmet showing 91L moving into Bahamas.

This 12Z UKMET move of a weak low into the Bahamas while moving NW and looking to recurve offshore the SE US per the H5 map is a significant shift eastward vs prior runs that had it way down near Cuba moving W to WNW and thus is an expected correction toward the model consensus. Of course, the model consensus, itself, has shifted westward. So, they're coming together toward the middle like often happens.

And let's also remember that we're talking about the 7-8 day period where error margin is huge.

Just the fact that CMC and UK (pending Euro's input) are now suggesting a slow drift in the Central Bahamas a week from now is an enormous possible change of direction from just a day or two ago

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has 91L just north of PR hour 72.

[sma10]

12z Euro has 91L just north of PR hour 72.

FWIW, the Euro, CMC and UK position at 78hrs are basically on top of each other

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has 91L just north of PR hour 72.

FWIW, the Euro, CMC and UK position at 78hrs are basically on top of each other

Yup. 12z Euro looks like it may clip Hispaniola.

[aspen]

12z HWRF hasn’t loaded right, but it looks to be further SW at 126hrs compared to previous runs. Also only a strong TS at that time frame, but since lots of hours are missing, it’s unclear if it slowly intensified to the low 990s, or peaked as a hurricane around Day 4 but weakened due to upwelling.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'll be honest in that the pattern looks so "recurve"-y that I don't see how anything could make a close approach to the CONUS from 91L's position. Even if it stays an open wave through the Bahamas.

[chris_fit]

ECMF Trend...

[sma10]

I'll be honest in that the pattern looks so "recurve"-y that I don't see how anything could make a close approach to the CONUS from 91L's position. Even if it stays an open wave through the Bahamas.

Naturally, that's still the likely end game. The only thing that raises the slightest doubt is that this takes so long to develop that you're now putting faith in the 7-10 day pattern.

[tolakram]

EC-FAST, last frame still not done.

[skyline385]

Euro looking similar to the CMC solution from earlier, stalls it enough to get trapped




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[sma10]

Yeah there's a distinctive bend to the left and strengthening towards the end of the Euro. Just a little interesting

[tolakram]

Final frame is in