2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

The Euro has an EPAC crossover next week bringing widespread rains to Texas.

[Teban54]

0z CMC continues to develop the 9/6 wave and now ends the run at 992mb, quite strong for this model in the long range. Heads W and then WNW. The wave behind it might be slowly organizing too.


Update: 0z Euro develops the 9/3 wave as it quickly recurves. Through 168 hours, it also shows the 9/6 wave organizing.

Update 2: Euro ends with the 9/6 wave at 991 mb in the central MDR moving west.

[aspen]

0z CMC continues to develop the 9/6 wave and now ends the run at 992mb, quite strong for this model in the long range. Heads W and then WNW. The wave behind it might be slowly organizing too.
https://i.postimg.cc/GhTLjPwV/image.png

Update: 0z Euro develops the 9/3 wave as it quickly recurves. Through 168 hours, it also shows the 9/6 wave organizing.

Update 2: Euro ends with the 9/6 wave at 991 mb in the central MDR moving west.

I had a feeling that wave might end up as something to watch. So far the GFS still wants to shut down the MDR after 91L moves into the subtropics and the other MDR AOI dissipates, something I’d expect to see from the Euro and CMC, ironically the only two models developing this (it’s outside the time range of the ICON).

Also the wave that exits on 9/9 looks a little interesting.

[Category5Kaiju]

CPC does recognize the potential for the 9/6 wave, in fact it delineates a moderate possibility of formation, with an above average precip zone surrounding it.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF has a hurricane moving W across the MDR...

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/8qT8J4H.gif
00z ECMWF has a hurricane moving W across the MDR...

Wait, so between the wave right off Africa now that's about to develop and the long track system, Euro thinks there'll be yet another spinup in between? Huh.

[aspen]

12z CMC has that 9/6 wave MDR hurricane again, and still shows another strong south-shifted wave exiting Africa on 9/9. Those two have the best shots of racking up some significant ACE if their precursor waves do indeed come off at such a low latitude.

[SFLcane]

12z CMC has that 9/6 wave MDR hurricane again, and still shows another strong south-shifted wave exiting Africa on 9/9. Those two have the best shots of racking up some significant ACE if their precursor waves do indeed come off at such a low latitude.

Indeed..

[Meteorcane]

I think the signs are starting to come together for a somewhat active eastern/central MDR starting early next week and likely continuing into the following week. Mid-lvl ridging looks to set up over the eastern Atlantic and then gradually shift westward with time. This would at least limit shear on any waves that develop (particularly if they can develop at relatively low latitude). Possibly would limit mid-latitude dry air intrusions as well, so would not be surprised to see a couple systems develop in that time period... potentially fairly far east as conditions will probably be as favorable as we have seen thus far this season in that part of the Basin.

The lack of GFS/GEFS development is a bit of a wrench in the above assessment , but since we are talking about genesis a week out, I think looking at the large scale pattern is probably a bit more relevant than focusing on specific model cyclones.

[SFLcane]

I think the signs are starting to come together for a somewhat active eastern/central MDR starting early next week and likely continuing into the following week. Mid-lvl ridging looks to set up over the eastern Atlantic and then gradually shift westward with time. This would at least limit shear on any waves that develop (particularly if they can develop at relatively low latitude). Possibly would limit mid-latitude dry air intrusions as well, so would not be surprised to see a couple systems develop in that time period... potentially fairly far east as conditions will probably be as favorable as we have seen thus far this season in that part of the Basin.

The lack of GFS/GEFS development is a bit of a wrench in the above assessment , but since we are talking about genesis a week out, I think looking at the large scale pattern is probably a bit more relevant than focusing on specific model cyclones.

monsoon trough losing influence potentially? The do roll of pretty clean.

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC has that 9/6 wave MDR hurricane again, and still shows another strong south-shifted wave exiting Africa on 9/9. Those two have the best shots of racking up some significant ACE if their precursor waves do indeed come off at such a low latitude.

Indeed..

https://i.postimg.cc/vTqG84tP/cmc.gif

The CMC is normally conservative, let's see if it's just a model bluff or a possible storm down the road.

[Meteorcane]

monsoon trough losing influence potentially? The do roll of pretty clean.

It does appear that way, to use a very non-technical terms "a cleaner splash down" and quicker detachment from the monsoon trough, at least in the extended models (so some grain of salt).

[SFLcane]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/yxqz1WWK/ecm33.gif

This may become concerning now that the Euro and Canadian are consistent with the 9/6 MDR Hurricane.

[caneseddy]

https://i.postimg.cc/yxqz1WWK/ecm33.gif

Yep that storm in the MDR looks like will be the one to watch. Look at that nice high pressure north of it expanding west in tandem with it.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

[Meteorcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/yxqz1WWK/ecm33.gif

Yep that storm in the MDR looks like will be the one to watch. Look at that nice high pressure north of it expanding west in tandem with it.

Agreed, had pretty good support from the 00Z EPS too, would hypothesize it will get some from the 12Z. If the ridge to its north does move in tandem with it that would both limit shear, and probably limit at least mid-latitude dry air intrusions (although possibly some SAL from riding the southern flank of the ridge could still make it in the vicinity of the circulation). Given the ridge to its north the system would obviously track W/WNW through 240... beyond that I have no idea honestly as the weakness induced by 91L/Future Danielle and general troughing over the east coast may be present in the west-central Atlantic... although at the same time the ridge could keep expanding westward. Unfortunately the ensemble mean fields don't offer much clarity as to the synoptic pattern at this time, as any signal is quite weak (and remember there will be a typhoon recurvature in the WPAC that will start to have teleconnections in the Atlantic by this time, which aren't going to be properly handled by models anyway).

Still that is a lot of conjecture on my part about a wave that won't even move off of Africa for another 5 days lol, I think the general synoptic environment being favorable in the Central/Eastern Atlantic is pretty clear though so I will give it a little more credence than a typical late range "model fantasy storm"

[caneseddy]

https://i.postimg.cc/SNdNr7Jz/8b70d323-ac28-42b5-960f-48c692ee3d1a.gif

It seems at the end of the run, there looks to be a bit of an opening left where 91L is recurving but doesn't seem like it will enough to send this one out that way and you can see where it looks like the high pressure on top of this disturbance is rushing to close the gap, which if it does may signify trouble for the CONUS.

Interesting week ahead...

[SFLcane]