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ATL: EARL - Models
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ICON 12Z stalls to the east of Bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
aspen wrote:ICON finishes off at 948mb — very strong for this model — and still hasn’t started recurving. So far it still has the most SW track out of the global models.
Ukmet is the furthest SW.
00z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
skyline385 wrote:ICON 12Z stalls to the east of Bahamas
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220829/dd8a3e5da84043b39f3779414e0cc0cd.gif
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Indeed, the 12Z ICON at 168 is quite a bit east of the 0Z ICON at 180, a sign of reduced threat from that model for now.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Direct hit for Bermuda on the 12z GFS
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12z GFS and CMC look to be recurving safely in terms of US impacts, but Bermuda is at risk.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12Z UKMET: 132 hour position is a bit NE of 0Z UKMET at 144; at 144 12Z is at 22.8 N, 65.0 W with NW movement:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 47.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2022 0 14.3N 47.2W 1009 26
0000UTC 30.08.2022 12 14.2N 48.7W 1010 26
1200UTC 30.08.2022 24 14.9N 48.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 31.08.2022 36 15.3N 49.9W 1008 24
1200UTC 31.08.2022 48 15.7N 50.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 60 16.5N 51.8W 1008 26
1200UTC 01.09.2022 72 17.1N 53.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 02.09.2022 84 18.1N 55.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 02.09.2022 96 19.3N 58.1W 1006 36
0000UTC 03.09.2022 108 19.7N 59.7W 1006 38
1200UTC 03.09.2022 120 20.7N 61.7W 1007 38
0000UTC 04.09.2022 132 21.4N 63.3W 1006 34
1200UTC 04.09.2022 144 22.8N 65.0W 1006 36
The 12Z GFS and CMC remain safely away from the US, but they both continue to threaten Bermuda.
The consensus of non-Euro 12Z models is thankfully to stay safely away from the US but that could change over the next few days if movement is further west than models are showing. Thus, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence, especially since there's still no TC center to track and the system remains messy, even though the model trends are clearly good news for now though not good for Bermuda.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 47.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2022 0 14.3N 47.2W 1009 26
0000UTC 30.08.2022 12 14.2N 48.7W 1010 26
1200UTC 30.08.2022 24 14.9N 48.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 31.08.2022 36 15.3N 49.9W 1008 24
1200UTC 31.08.2022 48 15.7N 50.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 60 16.5N 51.8W 1008 26
1200UTC 01.09.2022 72 17.1N 53.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 02.09.2022 84 18.1N 55.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 02.09.2022 96 19.3N 58.1W 1006 36
0000UTC 03.09.2022 108 19.7N 59.7W 1006 38
1200UTC 03.09.2022 120 20.7N 61.7W 1007 38
0000UTC 04.09.2022 132 21.4N 63.3W 1006 34
1200UTC 04.09.2022 144 22.8N 65.0W 1006 36
The 12Z GFS and CMC remain safely away from the US, but they both continue to threaten Bermuda.
The consensus of non-Euro 12Z models is thankfully to stay safely away from the US but that could change over the next few days if movement is further west than models are showing. Thus, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence, especially since there's still no TC center to track and the system remains messy, even though the model trends are clearly good news for now though not good for Bermuda.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
LarryWx wrote:skyline385 wrote:ICON 12Z stalls to the east of Bahamas
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220829/dd8a3e5da84043b39f3779414e0cc0cd.gif
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Indeed, the 12Z ICON at 168 is quite a bit east of the 0Z ICON at 180, a sign of reduced threat from that model for now.
Yes, a bit east and slower.
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Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Trend continues to be good for anyone that doesn't live in Bermuda... GFS/CMC further east with solid troughing in place over the northeast making for a safe (other than Bermuda) recurve. ICON maintains a stall, but is further east with it, we will see if the UKMET trends a little further north as well. Still being more than 5-6 days out (and with a currently non-organized system), I wouldn't yet say the consensus synoptic setup is set in stone so it will bear at least a little more watching for east coast interests.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
skyline385 wrote:ICON 12Z stalls to the east of Bahamas
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220829/dd8a3e5da84043b39f3779414e0cc0cd.gif
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That should be an easy recurve there like the euro.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1564293632361914368?cxt=HHwWgICzlamxvrUrAAAA
Interesting to see a few members actually take it to NE Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1564293632361914368?cxt=HHwWgICzlamxvrUrAAAA
Indeed, there remains a slight but not tiny chance for a US hit due to the possibility of a further SW track due to there still being no TC center for the models to initialize on. But with that being said, the model trend consensus is undeniably good news for the US right now though potentially bad news for Bermuda.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1564293632361914368?cxt=HHwWgICzlamxvrUrAAAA
Interesting. However, the 12Z GEFS still has the overwhelming majority of members with a TC from this stay well away from the US.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12Z Euro (fast) north and weaker so far.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
trend
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
tolakram wrote:trend
https://i.imgur.com/uCKt5c2.gif
Looks like everything in the Atlantic is correcting further north, not just 91L.
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