ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#161 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:00 am

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable,
some gradual development of this system is expected over the next
several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west
and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters
of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this
system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#162 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:35 am

AL, 91, 2022082912, , BEST, 0, 147N, 467W, 30, 1007, DB


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#163 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 7:36 am

Going to be a lot of uncertainty with this one

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1564225930373070848


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#164 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:01 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#165 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:54 am

The disturbance is now butting up against an upper-level trof. Ridge to its north has weakened. Result is a slowing of its forward speed and a northward jog for a while. This should allow it to safely clear the islands of the NE Caribbean on Friday. Depending on how far north it jogs and its future forward speed, it could well turn out to sea and not impact the Bahamas or U.S. Way too early to be sure about that, though. I'm more confident it won't cause any significant impacts for the NE Caribbean, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#166 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:00 am

91L is extremely elongated SW to NE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#167 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:10 am

Image

Image

Very weak COC, but it’s chugging slowly W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#168 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:42 am

skyline385 wrote:Going to be a lot of uncertainty with this one

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1564225930373070848?s=20&t=6Njc5PMXD4WD8yM58KA1Ew


Ugh, three letters that I hate to see together in track forecast: C O L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#169 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:02 am

Okay, I gotta know. What's a col? (I think I thought that was a typo. :lol: )
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#170 Postby LadyBug72 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:10 am

AnnularCane wrote:Okay, I gotta know. What's a col? (I think I thought that was a typo. :lol: )



In meteorology, the point of intersection of a trough and a ridge in the pressure pattern of a weather map. It is the point of relatively lowest pressure between two highs and the point of relatively highest pressure between two lows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#171 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:24 am

TVCN trending N...
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#172 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:29 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#173 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:30 am

Spacecoast wrote:TVCN trending N...
Image

All the models have been trending north so yea kinda makes sense


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#174 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:39 am

Probable track implications if the system fails to consolidate to the north and the convection to the south remains the strongest and ends up taking over.

Model forecasts show the center consolidating on the north side of this mess. That's still uncertain because the conditions ahead of it over the next 48-72 hours are pretty hostile.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#175 Postby Teban54 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:41 am

You can clearly feel the dropoff in activity here when it doesn't appear to be a FL threat :lol:

Personally, I'm not jumping on board until the system clears LA to the north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#176 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:52 am

Teban54 wrote:You can clearly feel the dropoff in activity here when it doesn't appear to be a FL threat :lol:

Personally, I'm not jumping on board until the system clears LA to the north.

It’s not about the FL threat, 91L has been struggling for two days now and will continue to do so for a couple more atleast. Not much to talk about when we don’t even know where the center is going to be.

Meanwhile, WPAC is flexing again with another gorgeous monster cane.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#177 Postby sunnyday » Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:52 am

What is c o l ? Thank you
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#178 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 29, 2022 12:00 pm

sunnyday wrote:What is c o l ? Thank you


Per wiki:
A col, also called saddle point or neutral point, is in meteorology, the point of intersection of a trough and a ridge in the pressure pattern of a weather map.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#179 Postby sunnyday » Mon Aug 29, 2022 12:01 pm

Please disregard my question about c o l. I see now that someone else had already asked. I apologize.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#180 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 29, 2022 12:07 pm

Modeling tends to improve YoY and seeing the trend starting to cave into a more OTS scenario (other then Bermuda) kills the hype for sure.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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