ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

https://i.ibb.co/RTrPR45/loop.gif

Is a mess right now.

[SFLcane]

https://i.ibb.co/RTrPR45/loop.gif

Is a mess right now.

That’s being nice.. scrambled eggs.

[SFLcane]

Wouldn’t be surprised if development odds are lowered later tonight.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wouldn’t be surprised if development odds are lowered later tonight.

Not personally sure if just because it looks sloppy now (likely due to DMin, which is quite natural for many TCs in their early stages) means that this is going to be a compelling reason to lower development odds, especially considering the very strong support for this system persisting down the line.

[Teban54]

Wouldn’t be surprised if development odds are lowered later tonight.

91L's current struggles are well expected by models days in advance. No need to be so reactionary.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Wouldn’t be surprised if development odds are lowered later tonight.

Not personally sure if just because it looks sloppy now (likely due to DMin, which is quite natural for many TCs in their early stages) means that this is going to be a compelling reason to lower development odds, especially considering the very strong support for this system persisting down the line.

Just cause there is model support does not mean this is a shoe in to develop. Fact is it’s got a tough battle most of this week and it could very well not develop. Would that surprise you considering how this year has gone lol? We’ll see what happens

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like new convection is firing on the north side of the low

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the north side is popping convection, maybe a jump north?

[chaser1]

91L is the poster child for why TD's or TS's should not be rushed to classification when just barely exhibiting some tropical characteristics that "might" reach a classification threshold. When in doubt, let time play out. This year seems to be the first of many that I recall where the NHC has excercised greater restraint & seemingly a bit more of a conservative approach in quickly tagging a disturbance.

[NotSparta]

Wouldn’t be surprised if development odds are lowered later tonight.

Why? Because it's struggling a little just as we have all been expecting for days?

[ElectricStorm]

Seems like a typical DMIN to me, convection already starting to fire again on the north side, not really sure why some people seem to overreact every time convection wanes. There's nothing whatsoever that suggests this has any less chance at developing, which should take a few more days as expected.

[AtlanticWind]

This is just what disturbances do , pulse convection usually due to dmax and dmin
We will know when is taking off and thats probably a couple days out.

The NHC would not be lowering the devolpment chances with such model support I would think.

[Blown Away]

Seems like a typical DMIN to me, convection already starting to fire again on the north side, not really sure why some people seem to overreact every time convection wanes. There's nothing whatsoever that suggests this has any less chance at developing, which should take a few more days as expected.

There is a broad COC at the crosshairs, clearly see it rotating due to lack of convection. Latest burst is on N side of COC. Definitely holding its own so far.

[chaser1]

Wouldn’t be surprised if development odds are lowered later tonight.

Why? Because it's struggling a little just as we have all been expecting for days?

Struggling? If I woke up in the morning and found 91L in my back yard, i'd probably just shoot it and put it out of it's misery

[AtlanticWind]

Now I want to preface this by saying this is just an observation and not meant to scare or predict anything.

Just noticing this because I have been remembering and reading and posting about Hurricane Andrews 30th
anniversary this month.

This system has some similarities in that it is struggling in the mid atlantic which should continue for
several days as it moves wnw/nw and than as turns more west the models show condition become
more conducive in the same area as Andrew with high pressure building. Also from what I see in the models
it looks like a small storm also.

Again just random observations as the models show a lot of differences also especially how slow this
storm is moving near the bahamas and possible turn north.
Also Cat 5 are pretty rare so wouldnt be expecting that.

So just a random observation from a south florida native.

[Keldeo1997]

50/80

[MHC Tracking]

It has made the jump north and may track almost due west until the ridge weakens Wednesday.
I had it about half a degree further north near 15N when it crosses -45 so am not very happy but it should find a weakness. The models will have something to initialize on now if the models still evolve cause and effect serially the output will have a lower error rate now.

Due to being south of where the models expected might be a threat to clip the northern lesser Antilles more than expected

That's a good point and depending on speed of forward motion, could alter future model recurve forecast to potentially progress far enough to the west toward Florida and the GOM at a time where SE CONUS ridging remains quite strong. Having said all that though, I tend to agree with Blown Away and NonSparta from about a page back. In spite of improving appearance which might well continue through today, I'd be gun-shy to tag this a TD quite yet especially minus any solid banding quite yet. Moreso, it's relatively small center within the broader elongated axis continues to suggest to me that a lack of really moist inflow is working against maintaining and increasing a significant degree of convection which in turn might better aid ongoing vertical development through a still relatively dry mid-level. Present shear charts suggest 91L might be threading a needle at the moment, but I would lean toward (at least a temporary) decrease in organization by later tonight or tomorrow.

Yep. We have now had a significant decrease in convection related to both DMIN and the dry air issue that yesterday's UL recon detected.

[tolakram]

All the models say significant development in 4 days, possibly sooner but unlikely. I would have gone with 40/80 but 50/80 probably best. Very good long term agreement for development by 120 hours, sloppy until then.

[Blown Away]

Very elongated COC, NHC seems have it above 15N, but it looks below that heading W. It’s hanging in there.