2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS shows development within 72 hours of two systems (Africa and Gulf) that aren't likely to at all and delays development of the one that's most likely to

The crooked, not-so-sane GFS strikes again I see

[Jr0d]

.... However, it shows a high pressure system moving toward the coast from the CONUS. So there could be a block if it moves north and a turn west (aka shortcut storm).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=180

When this happens it often will push a storm WSW... Andrew, Katrina(before the Florida landfall) are good examples of storms that took the south dive.

Obviously its easy to forget lesser storms that this happened to, but this is a troubling pattern as it often is a very favorable environment.

Im already a bit concerned about the synoptics of this wave...

Edit Irma took the south dive when she was well east of the Leeward Islands so not the best example

[cane5]

Always a storm on or near labor day no matter what it always works out that way. Board chatter seems to favor one of these waves for potential.

[AtlanticWind]

Models showing almost nothing going out to sept 8th peak season other than GFS and its
maybe (phantom storm?),

I would say this seems unlikely but this season is behaving so oddly I really dont know.

The tropics being so quiet over all the basins right now is really inexplicable.

Could we really have no hurricanes going into the middle of September.

Sorry rambling late at night.....

[Hammy]

Euro single handedly cancels hurricane season

[skyline385]

Euro single handedly cancels hurricane season

GFS was right all along (except for the Gulf)

[cycloneye]

Euro single handedly cancels hurricane season

GFS was right all along (except for the Gulf)

06z GFS comes back roaring.

[Hammy]

Euro single handedly cancels hurricane season

GFS was right all along (except for the Gulf)

06z GFS comes back roaring.

Wondering when it's going to drop the Gulf storm, it's been extremely consistent now and we're closing in on the 72h mark for development.

[Nimbus]

GFS was right all along (except for the Gulf)

At 06z GFS comes back roaring.

Wondering when it's going to drop the Gulf storm, it's been extremely consistent now and we're closing in on the 72h mark for development.

I'm still watching the BOC buoy 42055 its down to 29.83 this morning, I usually wait till 29.78 before looking for a circulation and there is still dry shear.

[skyline385]

Euro single handedly cancels hurricane season

GFS was right all along (except for the Gulf)

06z GFS comes back roaring.

GFS heard us giving credit to it and decided it was too much

[cane5]

One observation is that we always tend to look at what the high pressure system will do i.e. will it weaken or strengthen at what time period. Little thought is given to the troughs moving across the US and that influence. I will be looking for those dynamics as this potential system approaches. Any info in advance appreciated.

[aspen]

12z ICON is coming in stronger with the 9/2 wave and has a 1001mb TS at 150hrs, the day after splashdown.

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON back to being bullish this run.

[skyline385]

Happy hour GFS doing its thing again

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564014915022737413

[cycloneye]

The trio.

[skyline385]

This happy hour run is one for the record books, it literally backtracked all the way to crash into the Carolinas




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hurricane2022]

This happy hour run is one for the record books, it literally backtracked all the way to crash into the Carolinas

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220829/b620a33d81dddd929ff4ab589426ca80.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

GFS right now:

[mitchell]

I have been noticing more than usual this season that the GFS seems to frequently blow tropical systems up in days 10-14 of the model run. For the past 6-8 weeks there has nearly always been a strong TS or Hurricane in the western north atlantic/GOM in days 10-14 of most every run that doesn't materialize.

Is it a known issue with the GFS that it really likes to spin up systems in the last third of the 14 day model run?

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the 0z GFS is trying to develop something in the subtropics (not 92L) within the next 24-30 hours. It is the GFS though so it could very well be a phantom, not sure if any other models are showing it.

Here it is at 1004mb at hour 42: