ATL: EARL - Models

[aspen]

Am I seeing things or did the GFS just plow straight through a ridge?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s also plowing straight through UL outflow from the Gulf major, which does not want to disappear from the GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

Whoa… that’s something new GFS… hard left hook.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Based on many of the EPS members also slowing down nearby at 240 hours with similar H5 and then mainly recurving safely offshore the US once resuming movement after 240, I feel that the storm would very likely have recurved offshore the US had the 12Z Euro gone past 240 hours. You can also kind of tell by looking over N America at H5/sfc at 240 on the Euro op.

 But this is merely speculation on what's already very speculative, the 240 hour position on an operational run. Things will surely change quite a bit over the next few days even though as of this moment staying OTS probably has a slight advantage as of now imho.

The Euro beyond day 10 actually takes it into West Palm Beach, eventually moving WNW and sliding further inland. Obviously too far out to be concerned about exact specifics but that SW dive from the Euro is quite alarming in the long-range for Florida residents.

Am I seeing things or did the GFS just plow straight through a ridge?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You would be correct; not sure why it would do it on this run given that this run is stronger with 91L earlier and has a more pronounced signature higher up in the atmosphere, so it shouldn't just be able to go through mid-level ridges like they don't exist (like it potentially could if it was shallower).

However, in the super-long range, we do have the GFS sending it SW into the Carolinas, which is bizarre in itself.

[SouthFLTropics]

Here's something you don't see every day...

OOPS - Sorry, had the wrong happy hour...

[img]https://i.imgur.com/IMGL15R.gif[

[cajungal]

Here's something you don't see every day...

https://i.imgur.com/IMGL15R.gif

What is that crossing over Louisiana?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Gfs wants another Harvey minus the rain.
It seems that the ridge wants to build back in and force the storm into the Carolinas Florence esque.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GFS is like a bad disaster movie. Fortunately it is still out on a limb by itself.

[BobHarlem]

Ok so 941mb hurricane in Brownsville Sep 6, then 91L as a 966mb hurricane into Myrtle Beach on the 8th. Thanks Happy hour GFS. What is making it bend back west so far for 91L?

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the takeaway from this afternoon/evenings runs is that an out to sea isn't set in stone. Euro slows down and crawls west in the Bahamas and now the GFS takes a hard left also. It's going to be a complicated setup.

[LarryWx]

Based on many of the EPS members also slowing down nearby at 240 hours with similar H5 and then mainly recurving safely offshore the US once resuming movement after 240, I feel that the storm would very likely have recurved offshore the US had the 12Z Euro gone past 240 hours. You can also kind of tell by looking over N America at H5/sfc at 240 on the Euro op.

 But this is merely speculation on what's already very speculative, the 240 hour position on an operational run. Things will surely change quite a bit over the next few days even though as of this moment staying OTS probably has a slight advantage as of now imho.

The Euro beyond day 10 actually takes it into West Palm Beach, eventually moving WNW and sliding further inland. Obviously too far out to be concerned about exact specifics but that SW dive from the Euro is quite alarming in the long-range for Florida residents.

.

Thanks. Interesting. Is the Euro control actually just an extension of the operational? Isn't it at a lower resolution?

[aspen]

Here's something you don't see every day...

OOPS - Sorry, had the wrong happy hour...

[url]https://i.imgur.com/IMGL15R.gif[

https://i.imgur.com/Z7ftyww.gif

Lol the GFS changed its mind in the middle of sending it OTS.

[Meteorcane]

That is a truly iconic happy hour GFS run lol. The GFS' obsession with that Caribbean/GOM system is baffling (I know the previous model runs contributes to the initial model base state in the data assimilation scheme, but it is just odd how persistent it has been over a several day period).

[AnnularCane]

Looks like the GFS has taken full advantage of happy hour and got downright plastered.

[pgoss11]

Gotta love the GFS Happy Hour run. It was entertaining to say the least!

[Spacecoast]

Based on many of the EPS members also slowing down nearby at 240 hours with similar H5 and then mainly recurving safely offshore the US once resuming movement after 240, I feel that the storm would very likely have recurved offshore the US had the 12Z Euro gone past 240 hours. You can also kind of tell by looking over N America at H5/sfc at 240 on the Euro op.

 But this is merely speculation on what's already very speculative, the 240 hour position on an operational run. Things will surely change quite a bit over the next few days even though as of this moment staying OTS probably has a slight advantage as of now imho.

The Euro beyond day 10 actually takes it into West Palm Beach, eventually moving WNW and sliding further inland. Obviously too far out to be concerned about exact specifics but that SW dive from the Euro is quite alarming in the long-range for Florida residents.

.

Thanks. Interesting. Is the Euro control actually just an extension of the operational? Isn't it at a lower resolution?

Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied.

The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL. However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence.

[SFLcane]

Eps control would be horrible to say the least for SFL and then travels up the state.

[Fancy1001]

Ok so 931mb hurricane in Brownsville Sep 6, then 91L as a 966mb hurricane into Myrtle Beach on the 8th. Thanks Happy hour GFS. What is making it bend back west so far for 91L?

I think its 951mb.

[sma10]

It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0

Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.

What's really worrying is that the odds of correctly predicting a complete stall, in a precise location, 240 hours out is basically nil. I don't even think the Dorian total stall was figured out until 2-3 days prior.

Hard to not get lost in this kind of challenge, but at 10 days out I'm trying to focus on big picture:

Development looks likely
Conditions in SW Atlantic look favorable
Ridging appears more likely at this point than troughing

These factors alone would be enough to get attention atm

[MJGarrison]

The Euro beyond day 10 actually takes it into West Palm Beach, eventually moving WNW and sliding further inland. Obviously too far out to be concerned about exact specifics but that SW dive from the Euro is quite alarming in the long-range for Florida residents.

.

Thanks. Interesting. Is the Euro control actually just an extension of the operational? Isn't it at a lower resolution?

Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied.

The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL. However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence.

Can someone confirm? The way I read this is “The control has the same inputs as the operational, but operates at the resolution of the ensembles”


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[sma10]

End of 12z ECMWF looks like the start of a counter-clockwise loop, had the run gone out farther thinking it would start heading northeast, that is what timely ridge over Florida to “save the day” if it verifies, haven’t really seen that type of ridge much this summer.

Timely to say the least but the most likely outcome in most scenarios like this. Still time to change but we have all seen this song and dance before.

Agreed, it does seem that the tracks tend to favor good timing.

Not a huge fan of buying into the placement of the ridge on the Euro yet. Just too soon, being 10 days out. In fact, the Euro could eventually get this approximately correct in the main, but if it's just marginally off in placement it would have enormous ramifications.