Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

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Blown Away
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#461 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:38 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is this system forecast to enter Hebert Box #1 as an intensifying system? From my understanding, Hebert Boxes are surprisingly good (though not 100% foolproof of course) indicators of whether or not a storm has a chance of hitting peninsular Florida as a potent hurricane


I consider the Hebert boxes old world meteorology.
Why is that? Its just a benchmark...there is a 40/70 benchmark that is used for northeasters


Image

Through the Hebert Box. :D
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#462 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:38 pm

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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#463 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:41 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is this system forecast to enter Hebert Box #1 as an intensifying system? From my understanding, Hebert Boxes are surprisingly good (though not 100% foolproof of course) indicators of whether or not a storm has a chance of hitting peninsular Florida as a potent hurricane


I consider the Hebert boxes old world meteorology.
Why is that? Its just a benchmark...there is a 40/70 benchmark that is used for northeasters


I wouldnt say the Hebert box isnt valid , but it just a little outdated as when a mature Hurricane reaches it
we have a pretty good idea from modeling what the threat is to S. Florida.
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#464 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:41 pm

Euro coming in with the click bait forecast so far
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#465 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:41 pm

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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#466 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:44 pm

Image

Making L turn and accelerating! :double:
Last edited by Blown Away on Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#467 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:45 pm

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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#468 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:47 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

Making L turn and accelerating! :double:
Only one place to go with that ridge building in
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#469 Postby blp » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:50 pm

Ridge dives SW into the gulf protecting Florida..
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#470 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:50 pm

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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#471 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:50 pm

Looks like a break in ridge at 216 hours. may allow little more north movement
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#472 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:51 pm

blp wrote:Ridge dives SW into the gulf protecting Florida..

I wonder if it just flounders in the Bahamas until the ridge breaks down
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#473 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:55 pm

Almost looks like she's going to get trapped with no where to go. May camp out east of the Bahamas for a few days.

EDIT: Nope, looks like the door opens up and beyond 240 she'd head out to sea, possibly a brush by Bermuda on the way out.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#474 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:56 pm

We have to remember this is modeling 9 to 10 days out, just not that reliable that far out.
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#475 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:56 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Almost looks like she's going to get trapped with no where to go. May camp out east of the Bahamas for a few days.


Fish time?
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#476 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 27, 2022 1:59 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:We have to remember this is modeling 9 to 10 days out, just not that reliable that far out.


This is a very valid point. Way too early in the game to know what may or may not happen in 10 days.
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#477 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:00 pm

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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#478 Postby cane5 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:01 pm

This does not look good ..too close to South Florida.
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#479 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:02 pm



How common do storms actually do that, where they recurve at such an acute angle? :lol:
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Re: Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic

#480 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Aug 27, 2022 2:02 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Almost looks like she's going to get trapped with no where to go. May camp out east of the Bahamas for a few days.


Fish time?


Not necessarily it could just hang out for a few days. Ridging could easily rebuild and send it west again.

That being said these a day 9-10 outlooks which will change wildly. Chances are the WAR ends up stronger and this gets further west than modeled.
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