2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

12Z GFS 192 hours

[Nimbus]

Is the storm in the gulf on September 3rd the same 1008 mb wave we are waiting on that isn't invest worthy yet?

[aspen]

The Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement on MDR activity through the next 10 days. Both develop the 10/30 wave (red), then show two other waves emerging on 8/30 (blue) and 9/3 (green). Neither OP models do much with the 8/30 wave.

12z Euro




12z GFS




All three appear on the EPS too. It's harder to tell which is which on the GEFS, but it's quite active regardless. They have many far stronger solutions for the 8/30 wave than the OP models.

12z EPS


12z GEFS


Throwing in the ICON as well, and this is the best model agreement we've had since Bonnie. Seems like peak season may be starting for real this time.

[LarryWx]

The Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement on MDR activity through the next 10 days. Both develop the 10/30 wave (red), then show two other waves emerging on 8/30 (blue) and 9/3 (green). Neither OP models do much with the 8/30 wave.

12z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/W6DgA9T.png
https://i.imgur.com/zRp3xC5.png
https://i.imgur.com/Kj3yFhC.png

12z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/prNlAnx.png
https://i.imgur.com/UFZ2K6j.png
https://i.imgur.com/5rg4iw2.png

All three appear on the EPS too. It's harder to tell which is which on the GEFS, but it's quite active regardless. They have many far stronger solutions for the 8/30 wave than the OP models.

12z EPS
https://i.imgur.com/PxHsJI8.png

12z GEFS
https://i.imgur.com/AB2IRUd.png

Throwing in the ICON as well, and this is the best model agreement we've had since Bonnie. Seems like peak season may be starting for real this time.

The UKMET (12Z) continues to have this come Africa as a near instant TS moving WNW though not strengthening:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.0N 16.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2022 108 20.3N 17.8W 997 42
1200UTC 31.08.2022 120 21.3N 20.6W 998 42
0000UTC 01.09.2022 132 22.0N 23.6W 1001 40
1200UTC 01.09.2022 144 22.8N 26.0W 1002 37

[chaser1]

I think that overall global forecast models' credibility broadly exists, at least to the extent of their refusal to establish and especially maintain "model-canes" over the past 6 weeks. And now? Well recent day model runs have turned increasingly bullish and lo and behold, at least one or two viable disturbances have finally graced the Atlantic with their presence. Unfortunately we grew more accustomed to trusting short & mid-term globals to actually having a decent clue as to what the near future may hold (i.e.: track and to a lessor extent intensity). At least in my eyes however, that somewhat dependable reliance has gone sideways over the last few years. Maybe something is "breaking" our planet LOL; Perhaps the blame has more to do with poor or less available data. Point being this: Perhaps it should be prudent to beware LESS the beast that we expect to see, and be especially wary of those disturbances that models didnt quite see coming.

For whatever the reason that activity has been stymied up to now, I have to believe that some sweet-spot will appear where waves or disturbances develop or move into to suddenly then be evaluated for storm track steering and potential landfall risk. If this season's lack of strong easterly surges point toward slow overall westward progression, then let that "sweet-spot" be as far north and east as possible because I'd be even less inclined to expect long trackers to threaten the Antilles or US in this year of the seemingly forbidden (moist mid-level) fruit. On the other hand should models struggle to grasp whatever nuances might be (or not) affecting or causing atmospheric instability, then the greater risk this year may lie with the relatively quick spinup disturbance further to the west. Sure, that could apply to any year but recurving tropical cyclones are a lot like Lay's Potato chips.... it's hard to have just one. Thus far this August no one has even opened up that bag of chips. So, yeah lets see that Cape Verde season truly begin - and perhaps relegate "that sweet spot" to a parade of early poleward departures. On the flip side if (development) not occuring there - well then, where? That bag IS gonna open.

[Tailgater33]

I’m keeping an eye on the SW Gulf in the short term. Some low level convergence and we know it doesn’t take much this time of the year,
No model support that I’d seen yet.

[AtlanticWind]

It is really amazing that the GFS shows nothing on September 10th
The peak of what was supposed to be active saeson having no storms would be
quite shocking.

[Hammy]

Hard trend away from development since yesterday afternoon, really looking like we're not going to get anything for at least another week.

Something's really broken with the Atlantic the last several years that we're getting the entire monsoon trough being shoved out over the Atlantic rather than individual waves

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah that 0z GFS run was an anomaly (6z GFS shows systems again); I genuinely cannot believe that it would even be physically or meteorologically possible for us to get zero NSs by September 10. When was the last season at least since reliable historic records began to feature something like this happen? Oh yeah that’s right, zero.

[USTropics]

Hard trend away from development since yesterday afternoon, really looking like we're not going to get anything for at least another week.

Something's really broken with the Atlantic the last several years that we're getting the entire monsoon trough being shoved out over the Atlantic rather than individual waves

It does have a very WPAC monsoonal look to things. Looking at the TPW, you can see how the process of consolidation is underway in the CATL. Models will have differing solutions until they resolve the physics, but regardless of what models show (and most show development), you can look at this happening real time and realize something is consolidating:

[tolakram]

The complete lack of rotation in the Caribbean is amusing.

Irma just came off the coast in 2017 and if you look at how it came together the process was also rather sloppy. We're currently so deep in slow season bias that it's becoming difficult for people to realize the odds of having a major hurricane near the Bahamas in a week are rising very fast.

[underthwx]

The long range 12z GFS features a Hurricane from a non-tropical origin, that would be interesting to watch if it was the case.

Non-tropical origin? Can you share the GFS showing this? Thankyou.

[Fancy1001]

Yeah that 0z GFS run was an anomaly (6z GFS shows systems again); I genuinely cannot believe that it would even be physically or meteorologically possible for us to get zero NSs by September 10. When was the last season at least since reliable historic records began to feature something like this happen? Oh yeah that’s right, zero.

We're at the D storm right now.

[Steve]

12z ICON which only goes to 180 (valid 7pm next Saturday) hours has the first Atlantic storm moving toward the east coast of Florida before the run ends. If it's close, you could see a SEUS hit but probably farther north. However, it shows a high pressure system moving toward the coast from the CONUS. So there could be a block if it moves north and a turn west (aka shortcut storm).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=180

[Steve]

Here is the ICON at 500mb (3-3.5 miles) which shows a dangerous setup for the US East Coast to take a landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=180

[Hammy]

Seems like any development staying at or just beyond 120h mark in the models, and decreasing. Getting into "I'll believe it when I see it" territory here

Canadian had something with the MDR system by Aug 31 yesterday, today it's saying Sep 2, and showed a couple of potential systems behind it which it's dropped

Euro had Sep 1, then Sep 2, now it's trending down in intensity, and is backing away hard from any development outside of that

And GFS can't seem to muster anything beyond Caribbean phantom storms or 300+ hour systems.

Can't tell if the atmosphere has failed or the models have failed but either way feels like the model output is bordering on useless this season

[chaser1]

Seems like any development staying at or just beyond 120h mark in the models and decreasing. Getting into "I'll believe it when I see it" territory here

Canadian had something with the MDR system by Aug 31 yesterday, today it's saying Sep 2, and showed a couple of potential systems behind it which it's dropped

Euro had Sep 1, then Sep 2, now it's trending down in intensity, and is backing away hard from any development outside of that

And GFS can't seem to muster anything beyond Caribbean phantom storms or 300+ hour systems.

Can't tell if the atmosphere has failed or the models have failed but either way feels like the model output is bordering on useless this season

I'm more apt to suggest that (thus far) it has been this season which has bordered on useless rather than pointing at model output. It's not like model output has remained consistent in showing development for at least several days and then suddenly dropping them like a hot potato. Nor are they constantly coming up with arbitrary new tropical bombs just to drop development like the 'ol CMC used to be notorious for. Even our own red, white and blue GFS has finally forsaken Florida from it's annual favorite hits playlist LOL.

[Hammy]

GFS shows development within 72 hours of two systems (Africa and Gulf) that aren't likely to at all and delays development of the one that's most likely to

[aspen]

GFS shows development within 72 hours of two systems (Africa and Gulf) that aren't likely to at all and delays development of the one that's most likely to

At least the second MDR system isn’t a phantom lol

[aspen]

I think the wave forecast to splash down on September 2nd or 3rd could be one to watch in the long run. While none of the models do much with it, it’ll come off at a lower latitude than the new 0/20 wave, which all models show recurving. The GFS and Euro send the early September wave nearly due west, meaning it might not recurve before getting close to the islands, although that’s quite a ways away.