Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[MHC Tracking]

Watch the upper-level environment over the central/western Atlantic at 5 days. Both models have been trending in different directions with the ULL over the CATL:

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/Jujq7ae.gif

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/rkIHVwj.gif

GFS is heavily influenced by the GoM fantasy. I'll trust the ECMWF for now, but take it with a little salt due to the strong ridge bias

What influence does the GoM system have on a MDR system?


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The modelcane in the Gulf's outflow helps to put a weakness in the subtropical ridge by thrusting -PV south

[tolakram]

UKMET running

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/455-w-130-n/sea-level-pressure/20220828-0000z.html

[tolakram]

UKMET 60 hours

[skyline385]

Euro 12Z so far, seems to be initialized correctly with vorticity around the SW blob




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[SFLcane]

12z euro a but stronger then 00z run

[WxEp]

UKMET Text Version for 12z:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.5N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2022 108 13.6N 45.4W 1007 29
1200UTC 31.08.2022 120 14.8N 46.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 01.09.2022 132 15.9N 48.6W 1007 33
1200UTC 01.09.2022 144 17.4N 50.7W 1006 34

[CyclonicFury]

The model signal for this system is moving up in time and so far hasn't been dropped, so I think this one is a legit threat to develop. We're going to be cutting it close, but there's a decent chance this one develops before August is over. Could become a hurricane down the road, but it's too early in time for specific details.

[AtlanticWind]

Not sure why this is just 30 percent chance and no invest yet.

All models show at least a depression/tropical storm within 5 days and strong ensemble support

NHC gunshy after very slow August?

[SFLcane]

12z surely stronger down to 1000mb making a run for hurricane status before nearing the islands?

[skyline385]

Islands may have to watch out




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[SFLcane]

Its already on the islands! Luis!

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

Not sure why this is just 30 percent chance and no invest yet.

All models show at least a depression/tropical storm within 5 days and strong ensemble support

NHC gunshy after very slow August?

Based on the modeling this season, 30 is good, I expect 40-50 next update, there is enough model support now. Regardless of this system, use this weekend to start the gennys,etc. Amazon has a deal on Southwire 12/3 extension cords 50 and 100ft, good time to build up your inventory of "safe" extension cords for your generator setup. Dont be cheap on extension cords.

[SFLcane]

Hurricane folks...

[aspen]

Not sure why this is just 30 percent chance and no invest yet.

All models show at least a depression/tropical storm within 5 days and strong ensemble support

NHC gunshy after very slow August?

I think the broad nature and competing vorticies is why the NHC hasn’t tagged this as an invest. Where do you put the center in a wave like this? But once all parts of the wave finally start to merge, then we should get an invest out of this. Its 5-day development odds will probably be medium or even high by that point.

[Fancy1001]

Another inching to the west northwest. Will it continue that way towards Florida, or will it jut up north from here.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge looks stout so far on the 12z Euro.

[MHC Tracking]

Ridge looks stout so far on the 12z Euro.

As is usual for ECMWF

[SFLcane]

Another inching to the west northwest. Will it continue that way towards Florida, or will it jut up north from here.

Seems to be stair stepping...

[tolakram]

Euro 12Z